Lockett has picked up the pace over the past 3 weeks, but will it be enough?
Back on October 5th, I wrote that Lockett has had 4 straight 1,000-yard seasons, but No. 5 is looking like a longshot.
As part of that piece, I projected the following:
Given his current pace, Lockett’s final 2023 stat line projects to 72 receptions on 115 targets for 667 yards and either 8 or 9 touchdowns (depending on which way you round off 8.5).
That was after Seattle’s first four games.
Nine days later, I revisited those projections, stated that “A slow start doesn’t mean Lockett won’t finish with 1,000+ yards for the 5th consecutive season”, and determined that Lockett would need to average 64.85 yards over the final 13 games to extend his streak.
How’s he done since then?
- Week 6: 6 receptions on 8 targets for 94 yards
- Week 7: 4 receptions on 5 targets for 38 yards
- Week 8: 8 receptions on 9 targets for 81 yards with a touchdown
- Total: 18 receptions on 22 targets for 213 yards with 1 TD
The good news is that Lockett has averaged 6 receptions on 7.3 targets for 71 yards (which is more than 64.85) and 1/3rd of a TD over the last 3 games.
The bad news is that his current projection (through 7 games) still leaves him short (because math is funny that way).
How short?
About 101 yards short.
Through 7 games, Lockett has been targeted 49 times and has caught 35 of those passes for 370 yards and 3 TDs.
Impressively, his catch rate has improved by almost 8-1/2 points; from 63% through Week 4 to 71.4% through Week 7 – which leaves him only 0.4% below his career average.
Lockett needs to stack the yards though because his current 17-game projection is 85 of 119 for 899 yards and 7 TDs.
Projections notwithstanding, I’ll go out on a limb and say that I think he’ll get to the 1,000-yard mark . . . in Seattle’s 17th game . . . and probably just barely.
Go Hawks!
And Go Lockett!
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