Breaking Down the First-Round Quarterback Landscape for the Vikings

April 25th looms large for the future of the Vikings’ franchise

Ten days until the start of the NFL Draft– one that the Vikings’ future hinges upon more than any over at least the last decade. The reason is simple: the Vikings need and will be choosing a quarterback they believe will be their franchise quarterback. It would be the first time in ten years since the Vikings drafted a quarterback in the first round and could be the highest they’ve ever drafted a quarterback in franchise history.

A big part of which quarterback the Vikings draft on April 25th will depend on their ability to navigate the first-round quarterback landscape, from understanding which teams may be in the market for a quarterback and which one, potentially securing trade(s) with one or both of their first-round picks to better position themselves to draft a quarterback and/or maximize draft capital, and avoid any negative surprises. All that while trying to avoid giving other teams any intel on the Vikings’ intentions that may compromise their draft strategy.

Doing all that successfully will be the biggest challenge of Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s career as GM of the Vikings. It all begins with preparation. Not just all the due diligence that goes with evaluating quarterback options, which they started two years ago according to KAM, but also gathering all the intel and canvassing other teams for draft intentions and potential trade deals. KAM has already been active in trading up for the #23 pick in the draft, but those efforts at gaining intel and canvassing other teams are doubtlessly on-going.

So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at the first-round quarterback landscape and see what intel we can gather.

What the Betting Markets Can Tell Us

Betting markets (odds by DraftKings) don’t always get things right- longer shots sometimes come in and favorites don’t- but they do serve as a sort of clearinghouse of intel as odds move based on betting activity around news items, and sometimes on non-public information and rumors that may or may not be true.

At the moment, betting markets are telling us that most likely five quarterbacks will be selected in the first round. The over/under on quarterbacks drafted in the first round is currently at 4.5, with -250 on the over, meaning the implied probably is 71.4% that over 4.5 quarterbacks are taken in the first round.

Beyond that:

• Caleb Williams has a 99% implied probability of being picked first.
• Jayden Daniels has a 71% implied probability of being picked second.
• Drake Maye has a 95% implied probability of being picked in the top five, including a 55% implied probability of being picked third.
• JJ McCarthy’s over/under is pick 5.5, but with a 63% implied probability of under.
• Both Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. have an over/under of 32.5, with close to 50% probability of being picked in the first round.

That suggests a two-tier market, with the top four going in the top five picks and the latter two going (maybe) at the end of the first round. It may not happen exactly like that, but something close to it wouldn’t be that surprising.

Among more quarterback-needy teams outside the top three teams (Bears, Commanders, Patriots), the Broncos are favored to take a quarterback with their first pick (+100 – 50% implied probability). The Raiders are slightly favored to take a cornerback (+150) or offensive lineman (+160) over a quarterback (+230). The Giants are favored to take a wide receiver (-225, 69% implied probability) over a quarterback (+175, 36% implied probability).

Among less quarterback-needy teams but still possible to take a quarterback- teams like the Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys- none have an implied probability greater than 7.7% of doing so with their first pick and are more likely to take multiple positions over quarterback.

ESPN Analytics

ESPN has its draft day predictor app that presumably uses some sort of formula or algorithm (most likely some sort of compilation of betting market odds and team needs) to arrive at when prospects may be drafted. Here are the charts for Daniels, McCarthy, Maye, Nix, and Penix Jr.:

Perhaps the most interesting points from these charts are:

• JJ McCarthy is most likely to be taken at #6, a pick currently owned by the Giants, and secondly at pick #9- held by the Bears. The Giants are reportedly considering taking a quarterback at #6, although those rumors seem to have died down more recently. If the Giants didn’t take a quarterback, they could be a trade down candidate for a QB-needy team like the Vikings, who are the favorite to draft McCarthy. The Giants have any number of needs that could be addressed with a top prospect at #11. The Vikings could potentially keep #23 and trade only their 2025 first-round pick to move up with the Giants. The Bears will not take McCarthy at #9, given Caleb Williams will be their pick at #1, but another team- and probably not the Vikings given the division rivalry- could trade up ahead of the Vikings with the Bears to take McCarthy at #9. Broncos and Raiders are both possibilities for such a move. #6 would be an easier reach for them too.
• Both Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. are most likely to go at pick #23, held by the Vikings. If for whatever reason the Vikings didn’t select a quarterback at #11, or use #23 to trade up, they could use their #23 pick on a quarterback- and presumably only Nix and/or Penix Jr. would be available at that point in the draft. It’s interesting that the Broncos are the team most associated with drafting Nix and are the odds-on favorite at -175 (63.6% implied probability), but only around a 1% chance they take him at #12. And the Broncos don’t have a second-round pick. The Raiders are the odd-on favorite to draft Penix Jr. at +260 (27.8% implied probability), but more likely to do so with their pick #44 than #13. The Vikings are the second-most likely team to draft both Nix and Penix Jr.

What All That Means for the Vikings

After Caleb Williams is taken first, there could be an increasingly open market for the next three quarterbacks expected to be taken- Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and JJ McCarthy. The Commanders are likely to take a quarterback too- most likely Daniels- but there is at least a small chance of them moving off their pick or taking either Maye or (less likely) McCarthy. If the Vikings offered them at least 3 first-round picks (#11, #23, and their 2025 first-round pick), they might consider a trade down, but that appears improbable. The Patriots would appear to be the most likely team to draft Drake Maye, insomuch as Maye is most likely to be drafted at pick #3 which the Patriots own, but there have been mixed signals from the Patriots on whether they like Maye or not. The Patriots may be prepared to take a quarterback and have him sit for a year- both Maye and McCarthy are thought to need some development time before they’re ready to start- as they’ve got a lot of roster building to do before they’re ready to compete in the AFC East. But they’re also a candidate to trade down for the right compensation.

In both the Commanders and Patriots situation, the Vikings may be the only willing trade partner with enough draft capital to induce them to trade down. The odds of the Vikings opening their wallet in a major way seem to be less likely after Kwesi’s press conference last Thursday, however. That being the case, the Commanders and Patriots would likely stick and pick quarterbacks. Daniels, Maye, and McCarthy are the three most likely picks at #2 and #3.

If Williams, Daniels, and Maye go 1-2-3 as is the most likely scenario, that would leave the Vikings in an open market for JJ McCarthy with the Giants, Broncos, and perhaps the Raiders as well. That would mean the Vikings would need to trade up as high as #4 or #5 for McCarthy, if the Giants decided they wanted him. The Giants could also be in the bidding at those spots. That means the Vikings would mostly likely need to use both of their first-round picks to trade up for McCarthy and would likely need to overpay to win the auction. If no trade up materialized for any team, and the Giants didn’t take McCarthy at #6, the Vikings would still face a potential trade up by the Broncos with the Bears at #9.

Former Vikings’ GM Rick Spielman weighed in on this issue, saying the Vikings will have to overpay to land McCarthy. Spielman has plenty of contacts among GMs in the league, including Denver’s George Paton who was his #2 with the Vikings for many years, and who may be among the bidders for McCarthy’s services. But the Vikings current GM, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, talked a lot about walkaway prices and balancing quarterback with other needs at his press conference last week, so if the Broncos (or Giants) are more desperate for McCarthy, the Vikings may walk away from a trade rather than overpay.

The alternative may be to take Nix or Penix Jr. at #23 and take a premium defender at #11. The Vikings have met Byron Murphy II three times in the pre-draft process, and a few other defensive players in Quinyon Mitchell, Dallas Turner, and Laitau Latu that are ranked around #11.

Whether the Vikings trade up or not for McCarthy may depend on how well they like him over Nix and Penix Jr., and if that’s enough to forego a premium defender.

Other Qualitative Intel

I’m not including rumors here, given the amount of misdirection and whatnot that happens this time of year. But for teams in the market to draft a quarterback in the first round, it’s difficult to forego due diligence by not meeting them in order to hide your intention. So team activity when it comes to more extensive meetings and workouts can be revealing. With that in mind:

The Commanders and Patriots are both meeting with Michael Penix Jr. in Top 30 visits, suggesting they’re at least entertaining the idea of either trading down or going another direction with their first pick.

The Broncos have had more extensive workouts with Jayden Daniels, JJ McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. than Bo Nix, despite being the favorites to draft Nix.

The Raiders have had more extensive workouts/meetings with Penix and Nix and Daniels than JJ McCarthy.

The Giants have had the most extensive workouts/meetings with McCarthy, Maye, Daniels, and Penix rather than Nix.

The Seahawks, who don’t have a second-round pick, had Top 30 visits with Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler.

In addition to the above, Penix has had Top 30 visits with the Falcons (met with them 3 times- twice after signing Cousins) and the Steelers.

Bottom Line

The most likely scenario that unfolds on April 25th is that the Vikings will be in an auction to move up for JJ McCarthy, after the first three quarterbacks- Williams, Daniels, Maye- are drafted in the top three. I’d be surprised, based on Kwesi’s press conference last Thursday, if the Vikings gave up three first-round picks to move up in the draft.

If the Vikings feel strongly enough about a quarterback like McCarthy that might be available in the back half of the top ten, they may part with some draft capital to acquire him, but ultimately the decision will be whether they think it’s a better use of their draft capital to move up for a quarterback like McCarthy or Maye, both of whom may need some time to develop off the field, or if going with a premium defensive player like Quinyon Mitchell/Byron Murphy II/Laiatu Latu/Dallas Turner at #11 and a quarterback like Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. at #23 is a better option.

The Vikings will also have to be mindful, if they wait to take a quarterback, of teams potentially drafting a quarterback ahead of them in the mid-first-round or trying to jump ahead of them for a quarterback given that everybody knows the Vikings need to draft a quarterback and will likely do so at #23 if they went another direction earlier in the first round.

Anything can happen, and one or two first-round surprises typically do.

Stay tuned.

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