Breaking Down JJ McCarthy

A deep dive into the Vikings new quarterback

With the tenth pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings selected JJ McCarthy, quarterback, Michigan. As the tenth pick in the draft, JJ McCarthy becomes the highest drafted quarterback in Minnesota Vikings history. He was the fifth quarterback taken in the draft and was ranked 23rd on the draft consensus board. McCarthy was widely expected to be a top five pick heading into the draft, and definitely a top ten pick.

The Vikings traded up one spot with the New York Jets before making the selection, potentially heading off any trade-up attempts from teams such as the Broncos and Raiders picking 12th and 13th, especially after a surprising early run on quarterbacks and the Falcons surprisingly taking Michael Penix Jr. at #8. The Vikings gave the Jets their #11, #129 (fourth-round), and #157 (fifth-round) for the Jets’ #10 and #203 (sixth-round).

Top-Line Assessment

JJ McCarthy was a two-year starter at Michigan, going 27-1 and winning a national championship in January. He operated Jim Harbaugh’s run-heavy, but pro style offense and demonstrated a solid foundation of mechanical and footwork fundamentals. However, he’s been more inconsistent with accuracy, ball placement, processing and decision-making. McCarthy has adequate arm strength and can make all the throws, but is more of a fastball-only passer at this point. He shows good velocity on his throws when operating with a good base, but hasn’t shown the ability to layer passes and make touch passes. He’s proven to be a clutch performer on third-down, but has struggled more at times in the red zone. He is adept outside the pocket with the athleticism to extend plays, but is more focused on playing on-schedule rather than extending a play off-schedule.

Overall, McCarthy brings a solid foundation and fundamentals, familiarity with a pro-style offense, including operating from the huddle and under center- uncommon among college quarterbacks these days – which will help him make the transition to the league. He also brings top-tier intangibles as a leader, competitor, and clutch performer. It’s that ‘it factor’ that caused him to rise above his athletic traits and production in college among evaluators.

It will take an excellent off-season program and plan of development that McCarthy embraces and excels in for him to be ready to start week one. It’s possible, but a mid-season start is just as likely. His solid fundamentals and intangibles make him a good bet to realize his ceiling projection, and he couldn’t have landed in a better situation to develop into a quality starter and beyond. But it will take some time.

Physical Traits

JJ McCarthy doesn’t have a full RAS score because like many quarterbacks in this draft class, he didn’t do the full testing. He did have great agility drill testing, however.

He measured 6’ 2.5” and 219 pounds at the Combine (he put on nearly 20 pounds from college) and has relatively small 9” hands. Overall, he’s comparable to a more athletic version of Joe Burrow in physical traits, including arm strength which is above average/good rather than elite.

Evaluators were generally impressed with McCarthy’s pro day throwing, which seemed to alleviate some concerns about his arm strength.

The fact that McCarthy just turned 21 years old in January, along with his adding nearly 20 pounds since his last college game, could see his arm strength improve as he continues to develop physically, but unlikely to have elite arm strength even with development.

• Height: 6’2 1/2” (43rd %tile)
• Weight: 219 lbs. (42nd)
• Wingspan: 75 7/8” (48th)
• Arm length: 31 5/8” (38th)
• Hand size: 9” (8th)
• 3-cone drill: 6.82s (91st)
• 20-yard shuttle: 4.23s (72nd)

College Stats

McCarthy was 27-1 as a starter at Michigan and won the National Championship this past January. In 2023, he was the Big-Ten QB of the year; First-Team All-Big 10; and the Rose Bowl MVP.

College Football Reference

College Football Reference

Pro Football Focus (PFF) Profile and College Stats

PFF

PFF

PFF

PFF

Scouting Reports

Most evaluators have said that McCarthy was a difficult evaluation because of a lack of passing volume in the Michigan offense and inconsistent processing. Questions center around not having seen enough, rather than doubts about being able to do them. Not being asked to carry the load as a passer doesn’t mean he can’t do it is a common refrain.

Lance Zierlein, NFL.com

Enigmatic quarterback lacking the measurables and splash throws associated with early round quarterbacks but possessing elements that require more study and consideration. McCarthy lacks frame thickness and a plus arm. He’s fairly poised in the pocket but is average as a pocket passer. His ball placement and timing need to improve to help mitigate an average operation time due to a windup release. McCarthy doesn’t seek to play out of structure but is fairly consistent at making positive plays when it happens and ramps up his focus late in games and on third downs. He is confident and seems to have the ability to take slights and digest it as competitive fuel. McCarthy should continue to improve as a passer, but he fails to stand out in many of the areas that tend to be predictive of top-level success in the NFL.

Greg Cosell, 33rd Team

Based on his 2022 and 2023 Michigan tape, McCarthy is much more of a developmental prospect than a Week-1-ready starter at the next level. He may never be more than a quality starter on a good team with multiple offensive weapons and a strong offensive line.

His tape in college showed an efficient system quarterback lacking any special throwing or athletic traits. However, it would be fair to say that play extension with the ability to make well-placed throws on the move was a strength of his game, in addition to plus athleticism to scramble for first downs when demanded. He is more of a play extender than a play creator, but that is a meaningful part of his game and showed up throughout this tape. That will be strongly factored into his projection and transition to the NFL.

One trait that consistently showed up on tape — a critical one as you project McCarthy to the next level — was an efficient and clean pocket movement to find space to deliver the ball. McCarthy did not show higher-level arm talent, with the result being that he needed to be on balance with a firm base to throw the ball effectively and to have any chance to drive the ball with any kind of velocity (in the same way Kenny Pickett was coming out of Pitt).

When McCarthy was clean in the pocket and could play in rhythm with room to step up, the ball came out well, but that is not realistic to expect consistently at the next level. There will be legitimate questions regarding McCarthy’s ability to function effectively in muddied and noisy pockets with bodies around him. His tape did not show much efficient pocket movement to navigate and reset, nor did it show any ability to make off-platform throws.

My sense watching McCarthy is he projects to the NFL as much more of a system-based quarterback who will be team- and scheme-specific to play at a relatively consistent level, rather than a dynamic playmaker with either his arm or his legs (although he does have plus athletic ability). It would not surprise me if McCarthy became a quality starter down the road given the overall efficiency with which he played in college and with a more refined sense of timing and rhythm in a well-schemed passing game.

Matt Waldman

He’s one of the more difficult evaluations at the quarterback position that I’ve performed in recent years. McCarthy has some excellent tools that give him the foundation to become a good NFL starter.

The feet are the window into a quarterback’s mind and McCarthy’s drops and pocket movement are quick, fluid, and capable of dynamic and/or efficient maneuvers. It’s the basis for his pocket management and play-action game that are both strong.

Usually, good footwork is the foundation of strong accuracy. McCarthy has the footwork, but the accuracy lags a bit behind or, in the case of his vertical game, rarely accessed and unproven away from workouts in shorts and tee’s.

McCarthy identifies and acts on leverage advantages with an accuracy and confidence that are often an indicator of a top prospect. At the same time, McCarthy misreads enough leverage scenarios that he makes frustrating mistakes.

McCarthy’s development hinges on two things: 1) How accurate is he really? And 2) How well can he address his decision-making/processing gaffes?

If the high-end positives are an indicator that he’ll address most of his flaws, McCarthy can become a franchise starter with Pro Bowl production potential. If McCarthy proves accurate enough but he can only make minor-to-moderate improvements with his decision-making and processing gaffes, he’ll need a great infrastructure of surrounding talent and scheme fit to sustain starter production and that may only translate to McCarthy becoming a high-end journeyman starter.

If McCarthy can’t overcome his flaws and he’s not accurate, he’ll be the Zach Wilson 2.0 that’s the version we’ve seen of Wilson thus far in his NFL career. My projection is Jake Plummer: A player who will be expected to become the franchise who eventually figures it out but not without some difficult times and possibly a team change for him to get there.

Jordan Edwards, 33rd Team

J.J. McCarthy was the a quarterback for the Michigan Wolverines and led them to a National Championship in 2023. He was the point guard in an offense that relied heavily on its power-run game and play-action passing. Michigan utilized a good amount of pre-snap motion to scheme up receivers downfield as well. McCarthy played in 40 games during a three-year span and was a starter for 28 consecutive games in the past two seasons. He suffered an ankle injury in the middle of the 2023 season but did not miss any game time. McCarthy is a well-rounded athlete who can extend plays out of structure and shows some twitch and speed in his movements. He has sufficient height for the position, but dons a slimmer frame than desired. McCarthy is a leader through and through. Even though he was not eligible to be a captain for his team, he was a clear leader of a national championship winning team.

Pass Game:

When McCarthy is working in structure, he can manage an offense quickly and efficiently. He shows good short accuracy and can zip the ball out quickly to his receivers to let them create after the catch. That accuracy and zip can also reach the intermediate parts and occasionally the opposite side of the field, too. He can correctly decipher half-field reads and put the ball on the spot quickly in these situations. His mental processing is still a work in progress (working full-field reads and throwing with anticipation). He sparingly throws his receivers open and waits for them to present themselves open downfield. His point-and-shoot throwing style can lead to inaccurate throws downfield. While his arm strength is good, there is clearly a cap on the velocity in which he throws the ball. He has sufficient arm talent but when his base underneath him isn’t set, his velocity and accuracy dip. He can rifle the ball into windows, but all of his throws are at one speed. He struggles to throw with touch when layering throws across the field is required. McCarthy can deliver the ball on time over the middle of the field. However, he is hesitant to put the ball in between the hashes consistently. He doesn’t have a natural feel for maneuvering the pocket, but his athleticism shows this is an area that has promise with development. His toughness stands out in the pocket, as he will stand in and take a jarring hit when delivering the ball. Out of structure, his athleticism is on display. He can extend plays with his legs and deliver the ball with good zip on the run. While his willingness to extend plays is admirable, it can be a detriment to him at times. He will exhaust every second and blade of grass on the field to try and throw the ball downfield. This will lead to some questionable decision making, as he is willing to put the ball in harm’s way on occasion.

Run Game:

McCarthy can add some value to an offense using his legs when necessary. His athleticism can be used on designed runs and scrambles when a play breaks down. While he shouldn’t be asked to be a pivotal part of a run scheme at the next level, his ability to threaten the defense with his legs must be noted.

Last Word:

McCarthy projects to be a circumstantial starting quarterback with the potential of developing into a “win-with” level quarterback. He will be best served to play in an offensive scheme that utilizes motions and play action to a high degree. While the flashes of playmaking ability stand out, the level of consistency in which McCarthy plays with must improve. He won’t be the most talented quarterback at the next level, but if he can improve his decision making and ability to play with anticipation, he can raise his floor.

College Tape and Evaluations