The mail’s here!
Surprise! It’s a special draft day edition of the Big Blue View mailbag.
Warren Schuman asks: My son and I were debating a hypothetical for ‘25 and wanted to get your opinion. Let’s say the Giants draft Maye or McCarthy at 6. And then the Giants and Jones go on to have a very good season. Let’s say 10-7…wild-card…win one playoff game. And Jones plays every game, throws 30 TDs, 10 INTs, 3500 yards 67% completion…etc.
At that point what would the trade value be for Jones, and what would the trade value be for their rookie QB with the bubble wrap on?
And given the trade value, cap considerations, Jones’ injury history, the fact that the rookie is Schoen and Daboll‘s guy, etc…do the Giants stick with Jones or ship the other guy out for draft capital?
Ed says: Warren, I think that would be a good problem to have. It would, in fact, be ideal. If the Giants draft a quarterback at No. 6 — or higher — I think it would take Jones doing something magical, like winning a Super Bowl, for him to be the team’s starting quarterback in 2025. An organization doesn’t draft a quarterback at No. 6 and then move on a year later without ever giving that player an opportunity to get on the field.
The Chicago Bears traded Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers a few weeks ago for a conditional sixth-round pick that could become a fourth-rounder based on playing time. I would think the Giants would hope to get at least that for Jones. The better he plays in 2024 the more likely they can get that, or even slightly better.
If 2024 is a disaster for Jones, the Giants will be lucky to get a few rolls of ankle tape in return.
John Foti asks: As the draft approaches the more you read about this team moving up or that team wanting to move down. Of course those wanting to move up are looking for a QB. I think you need a good reason to move down as well. When I look at the top non QB talent in this draft, I see some elite players that look as though they can be elite in the NFL for years. I’m not sure that teams like San Diego or the Cardinals would want to move down unless they’re really desperate for draft capital. You’re not going to see guys like Joe Alt, Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze every year. I don’t see how a team that needs a receiver or tackle can pass on these guys. I feel the same way about the Giants. This is one year that I would not move out of the top 10. How do you feel about that?
Ed says: John, I think I have been consistent about this. See my show with Patty Traina. I am, as anyone who has been reading my work for a while knows, a proponent of trading down whenever it makes sense. More swings is generally better than fewer swings, because it helps mitigate mistakes.
I happen to agree, though, that this is a year I would not want to move out of the top 10. The Giants need for a No. 1 wide receiver is clear, and if they can’t get a quarterback or choose not to get one at No. 6 they can and should fill that need.
What I could see is a small trade down to No. 7 (Tennessee Titans) or No. 8 (Atlanta Falcons), provided there is an understanding that the trade-up team is not taking one of the wide receivers. That way, you get the player you want and you get an additional pick or two to maneuver or build with.
Mark Cicio asks: I enjoyed your articles on the success rates of drafted QB’s on the particular days (rounds) they were drafted. With a good number of mocks showing the Giants drafting one of the top 3 WR’s, then picking a QB in the second round (basically QB 5 or 6).
I get that if the Giants feel good about the move they should do it. But if you were GM, is this something you (if GM) would do knowing the success rate out of the top 10-15 picks? Would you rather go to fill more needed roles (DL, OL, CB) if the need fits available player ranked (as you always say)?
I always think that a QB drafted after the first is such a crap shoot that going for the higher percentage top player would be the best move. Then once the team is in a stronger place, make the deal for the best QB in the whatever following draft that works best.
Ed says: Mark, drafting quarterbacks in every round is a crapshoot. The success rate (solid starter or above) is less than 40%.
Yes, you have to have a good one. If you don’t, your franchise is just spinning its wheels. You might be able to put together a good year occasionally, but you can’t be competitive year-in and year-out without quality quarterback play.
If I felt like there was a quarterback on Day 2 who had a chance to give me that, I would absolutely take the swing. For me, that guy in this draft is Spencer Rattler. There is enough talent that I would be willing to take the chance.
Brennan Lyons asks: Knowing we need a WR1 AND a QB1, I am hoping (debating with myself) for a trade back to try and get both. My question to you is, given a hypothetical situation with say, the Vikings, would you “trade” Odunze for [Brian] Thomas and Penix (Nix)? I am interested in your perspective.
Ed says: No. I have been clear I would like to see the Giants stay in the top 10. Honestly, I would take Odunze because I think he is a cut above Brian Thomas (and Keon Coleman). There are no guarantees, but I think the chance Odunze becomes a great pro is better than the chance either Thomas or Coleman do.
If the Giants miss out on the Round 1 quarterbacks, I would be fine with taking a swing at Spencer Rattler. I don’t know if Rattler will ever become a QB1, but he would give the Giants an option.
Ty Viggi asks: My question is what kind of drop off in ability and potential are we looking at after the big 3 of Harrison, Nabers and Odunze? This is supposed to be a deep draft for WR? Could we still get a viable #1 and extra swings with a trade back or are they that special?
Ed says: Ty, that depends who you ask. Emory Hunt told me he thinks it’s a Big 5 wide receiver group. Most draft analysts think it’s a Big 3, with Brian Thomas and Keon Coleman being a second tier, then several receivers being in a third tier. The 33rd Team draft board reflects that.
I look at Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze as guys who are expected to be No. 1 wide receivers. Thomas and Coleman might be, but they might be far less. There are a lot of other players who should be useful receivers. Maybe someone out of that group becomes a No. 1, but that’s a dice roll.
The Giants have talent at receiver in Darius Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson, Jalin Hyatt and Isaiah Hodgins. What they don’t have is a game-changing guy, a dominant who demands a double team and makes plays anyway, a guy who changes the way the defense plays. That’s the receiver they need. The most likely path to that is through Harrison, Nabers or Odunze.
Florian Cortese asks: I don’t know about you but I sure as heck wish the draft was starting now! There seems to be so much more questions about what the Giants are going to do in this year’s first round than in other years. So much noise, smoke screens, opinions, rumors, etc. I have held steadfast to the belief that the Giants need to either hold fast at 6 and take one of the top wide receivers or drop back modestly and gain additional pick. More so since the Giants acquired Burns, which I applaud, and the loss of the early Round 2 pick. Moving up will result in a loss of pick(s). There are so many holes that need to be filled. Getting a QB at 6 or moving up, I feel, would put us back again to when we picked DJ at 6 with a team and O line not ready for him. The buzz is that next year’s QB picks will not be that good. But who really knows. Was Jayden Daniels or Burrows on anybody’s radar at this time the year before they got drafted? Is there a definite QB in this year’s top 4 that you feel the Giants would be wiling to give up valuable draft capital to move up for?
Ed says: Florian, I have been pretty clear what I think about this. I will just answer it simply. I think that’s Drake Maye. The ceiling and the similarities to Josh Allen both physically and as a prospect are too hard to ignore. I think the Giants would make a big offer to move up for him. Big enough? I don’t know because the Giants are not working with an abundance of draft capital.
Ron Corcillo asks: I know you aren’t generally in favor of the Giants trading down from #6. But a scenario occurred to me, and I was wondering if you thought it was a possibility.
Imagine that the first three picks go to three of the top four QBs. The Vikings want to trade up to grab QB4, but the Cardinals and Chargers decide that Marvin Harrison Jr. and Joe Alt are too good to pass up, so they decline the trade.
That leaves the Giants in position to grab QB4. But let’s say they’re not high on that particular QB, whoever it is. Let’s say that they feel they’d be just as well off with Michael Penix Jr., but they don’t feel they have to spend the #6 pick to get him. Could you imagine them trading down with the Vikings for #11 and #23, grabbing Penix with one of those two picks and snagging another impact player too?
Ed says: Ron, I can certainly imagine it. I just don’t favor it. I would rather see the Giants stay in a draft spot where they can get one of the three wide receivers. I also have doubts that Penix is their guy because of the injury history.
Donald Poucher asks: A draft/salary cap question: it is my understanding first round contracts are fully guaranteed with the salary cap implications determined by where the player was chosen in the round and spread out over 4 years. What about Day 2 picks? If a 2nd round choice is cut in year 3 are there usually any guarantees? I understand the singing bonus is spread over the 4 years but are further guarantees common for players chosen in Rounds 2-3?
Ed says: Donald, it is not etched in stone that first-round picks all get guaranteed contracts. It has just developed that way. Some second-round picks will get guaranteed deals, but not all. John Michael Schmitz was drafted in Round 2 a year ago. He got $3.24 million in guaranteed money on his four-year, $6.7 million deal. A pro-rated signing bonus and two years of guaranteed salary.
I would not say further guarantees are common at this point.
Christopher Affinito asks: I’m curious to hear your thoughts on whether the 5th year option is valuable enough for premium positions that it warrants trading up into the first round. For example, if the Giants really like Nix or Penix, and think there’s a chance one of them will be available at 47, would they consider trading into the first round for the 5th year option? Or would they only make such a move if they thought the player wouldn’t make it to the second round?
Ed says: I do think teams value the fifth-year option, particularly at quarterback. The position is important and it’s expensive, and an extra year of having a cost-controlled quarterback is helpful. I do think the Giants would consider the type of trade up you described if the situation is right.
Rich Bostwick asks: Most draft predictions I see have Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers going top five.
Let’s say this is the case and at pick six it seems Rome Odunze, JJ McCarthy or Joe Alt are the popular choices.
Between the three who offers the biggest benefit?
Ed says: For me, this is a no-brainer. If he hits, the clear answer is McCarthy. The quarterback is always the most important player. I keep saying that you need to have a good one to remain consistently competitive. Solving the quarterback part of the equation is always the biggest part of the puzzle.
Now, I am not saying I know McCarthy will hit. He might. He might not. I feel really good about Odunze’s chance to be a quality wide receiver, and about Alt’s chance to be a good offensive tackle.
Still, hit on the quarterback and you get more value out of that than any other position.
Thomas Hoynes asks: Insiders and talking heads are pushing this year’s QB class hard, with tepid evaluations of next year’s crop. I know they have a season or two to evaluate players in the pipeline, but how prescient have they actually been in the past with regard to early pans of a whole class of QB’s prior to the last season of games being played? If the Giants pass on the investment this year, are they really kicking the QB can to 2025 or later?
Ed says: Thomas, let me refer to the class of quarterbacks in the 2022 draft. I knew I kept a handful of draft guides from that year for a reason. That class was widely panned, and Kenny Pickett (No. 20 to the Pittsburgh Steelers) was the only first-round pick.
I can’t really tell you what was said a year in advance. I can tell you where analysts stood pre-draft.
That year, Dane Brugler of The Athletic did not have a single quarterback with a pure first-round grade. Pickett and Malik Willis had Round 1-2 grades. Mel Kiper had only two quarterbacks in his top 50 prospects, Matt Corral (32) and Desmond Ridder (36). The only quarterback Pro Football Focus gave a first-round grade was Sam Howell. Matt Waldman of The Rookie Scouting Portfolio had only one quarterback graded as a ‘starter.’ Weirdly, that was Skylar Thompson.
In that instance, I would say the scouting community as judged by this admittedly small sample size (though of top-tier analysts) had that class right.
Right now, Shedeur Sanders of Colorado is the only 2025 quarterback prospect Walter Football has given a Round 1 grade. Pro Football Network is projecting that Carson Beck of Georgia could surpass Sanders on draft boards. Quinn Ewers of Texas is the other quarterback right now thought of as a Round 1 possibility by some.
I do not think the Giants want to kick the quarterback can to 2025 or beyond. They have, by all reports, done an extraordinary amount of work on this quarterback class. GM Joe Schoen has said he believes in Daniel Jones as the 2024 starter, but has not uttered a word about anything beyond that. If at all possible, I think he would like to find a rookie quarterback who at least has the potential to take over in 2025.
Derick Gross asks: Hi Ed, I’ve been thinking about some of the things you’ve said about the QB position (forgive me for paraphrasing):
1. “If you don’t have a QB, do whatever it takes to go get one”.
2. “A GM’s job is to sell hope to the fan base (by drafting a QB)”.
3. “It takes elite QB talent to win a Super Bowl”.
Since the Giants last won a SB, Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Nick Foles, Patrick Mahomes, and Matthew Stafford have won championships. In several of these cases, the franchises built a demonstrably strong team before acquiring top talent at QB.
Several franchises in recent years have drafted highly-regarded first round QBs to weak teams (Burrow, Lawrence, Herbert), and not achieved elite success. The best path to sustainable success might be to build the team around Jones, then once the Giants are a perennial playoff contender clearly being held back by QB play, trade away 3 first round draft picks and whichever other draft resources necessary to acquire a fairly young and unproven QB (think Herbert, or a top 10 draft pick).
In other words, let the bad franchises draft QBs to “sell hope”. Build a strong team, then put the elite QB “finishing piece” in place. Thoughts?
Ed says: Throwing my own words at me, eh, Derick. Seriously, though, here is where I land on the ‘take the quarterback and build around him’ or ‘build the roster and then take the quarterback’ question.
It depends how you feel about the quarterback.
Here it is, though. If you need a quarterback and LOVE a quarterback who is within your reach, go get the quarterback. Do not live with the regret of passing on that quarterback or not going to the wall to trade up and select him, then watching that quarterback star somewhere else for a decade while you can’t get quality play at the position. Take the swing, the heck with the price.
If you’re in position to get one of those guys your team probably isn’t very good. If it doesn’t get better, you as a GM are getting fired, anyway. If you take the swing and miss, you get fired and it’s somebody else’s problem. If you take the swing and get it right, you’re Ernie Accorsi and nobody cares what you gave up.
If you don’t LOVE the quarterback, then take a player you do love and build the roster. Don’t ever take a quarterback because you feel forced to. If you don’t have conviction going in that he is going to be the right guy, he won’t be the right guy.
Here’s the bottom line for this draft. If Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll LOVE Drake Maye, then go get Drake Maye. It doesn’t matter what fans or sports writers think. It doesn’t matter how much they paid Daniel Jones. It doesn’t matter how much they give up. Go get him and then figure out how to build the roster.
If they don’t love Maye or can’t get him, and don’t love J.J. McCarthy then just build the roster.
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