Baalke Ball: Studying the Jaguars GM’s historic approach to drafting

Looking for clues about what may happen on draft weekend

Mock drafts are fun, but relentlessly unreliable. I say this after literally just publishing one for this very site, so feel free to call me a hypocrite! But if you bat at even 20% of correct picks on your first round mock, you’re outpunching almost everyone in the draft community.

Predicting who the Jacksonville Jaguars will take at 17 when we don’t know what 16 other teams will do before them is almost impossible – and let’s not even get started on Days 2 and 3.

But what can we learn from the General Manager’s previous drafting that might give us some hints for what to expect this weekend?

Trent Baalke has overseen nine different drafts as GM of both the Jags (2021-23) and previously the San Francisco 49ers (2011-16). He has selected 90 players across those drafts, from which there are a variety of trends we can identify.

Here are some of those tendencies, and what they mean – if anything – for this year:

Day 1 success – mostly

Looking at the table of players above, the first thing we need to do is give Trent Baalke his due; this man has an extraordinarily high hit rate in the first round.

Now, that might sound silly, as you’d expect most teams to be better at identifying the elite talent in each draft class. In actual fact, almost half of each year’s first round picks are considered poor selections, with approximately 46% of them ending up on different teams before or once their rookie contracts expire.

Baalke gets a pass on Aldon Smith, with off-the-field issues affecting his reliability in San Fran – but the talent wasn’t in question. The only poor pick would be the 2012 selection of Illinois’ AJ Jenkins, with the receiver traded after one year to the Kansas City Chiefs and being out of the league by the time he was 24.

Aside from that, there are starters, Pro Bowlers and All-Pro’s speckled across both teams he spearheaded. Baalke’s recent selections in Jacksonville seem good enough to maintain that trend.

If nothing else, history tells us that this front office should be trusted, or at the very least given the benefit of the doubt, when it comes to the first round.

Waiting for cornerbacks

Many Jags fans expect the team to target cornerback early in this draft. It’s a logical conclusion based on the change at defensive coordinator and the release of starting outside corner Darious Williams this offseason – and is a position that has only modestly been addressed in free agency with the addition of Ronald Darby. However, it might surprise you to learn that Baalke has NEVER selected a cornerback in the first round of a draft before. Does that suggest he prefers finding late round value at the position?

Well, dig deeper and the theory is vindicated – Baalke has selected 13 corners in total, the most per position in his drafting history. Incredibly, 10 of them have been Day 3 picks, highlighting a clear style of approach. Of those late round picks, none have necessarily become consistent contributors for either team, although Montaric Brown has earned plenty of playing time for the Jags considering his seventh round status.

Could 2024 be the year to buck the trend, fork out some early draft capital, and pair Tyson Campbell with a legitimate talent on the outside?

Safety first

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Weirdly, despite his reluctance for early round corners, Baalke has a totally different mindset when it comes to safety.

Four safeties have been taken on Days 1 and 2 in the draft, and all of them have gone on to have strong careers in the NFL. If there’s one position Baalke and his staff know how to scout, this one appears to be it – Eric Reid and Jimmie Ward were stalwarts for the 49ers, with the latter still playing today for the Houston Texans. Jaquiski Tartt has 367 tackles to his name, and Andre Cisco looks like he could be a steal as a third round pick for the Jags.

Look further down the draft where the dice rolls increase, and there’s hope for Antonio Johnson too. I’m not sure if it’s a position the team needs to or will target this weekend, but you can have confidence if one does come off the board.

Wide receiver woe

Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

Now for some bad news, folks. We all know that receiver is a very real need for this team heading into draft weekend. Unfortunately, Trent Baalke’s track record is downright diabolical when it comes to taking pass catchers.

Eight receivers have the privilege of being Baalke selections, with perhaps Bruce Ellington (2014, South Carolina) being the pick of the bunch. Ellington spent six years in the league, caught just 79 passes and is better known as a returner…

Jags fans will be relieved to know that the team hasn’t been punished by their GM’s blind spot at this position – only two have been picked by Jacksonville in the last three years, both in the sixth round. There’s still hope for Parker Washington, but considering past precedent, I wouldn’t bet your life savings on him making a Pro Bowl.

Considering the team is very likely to pick a receiver on Thursday or Friday, we could be in a dangerous spot with this one.

Running back love

Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Unio / USA TODAY NETWORK

The most intriguing trend of Baalke’s draft history has to be his penchant for a mid to late round running back. The GM has taken a ball carrier in EVERY draft class he’s presided over. Without fail.

It’s been a mixed bag when it comes to results, too – and more importantly, he doesn’t seem to have a preference for style of running back either. For every speedy LaMichael James, there’s a bulldozer Mike Davis, every diminutive Snoop Conner a lanky lean Kelvin Taylor. Baalke doesn’t discriminate – he likes his rushers in all shapes and sizes…

There is no doubt in my mind there’ll be another running back in the room by the end of Saturday. How high they get drafted and how they perform in training camp will determine if they can supplant (most likely) D’Ernest Johnson on the depth chart. This one, I would definitely be willing to wager on.

Fun final thoughts

• Three fullbacks in nine years seems high. It is high, right? A position not every team uses, maybe ten in the league worthy of a roster spot. A curious quirk of Baalke drafts – but considering his last pick Derek Parish is now in the CFL, maybe he’s still looking…
• What’s more weird – three fullbacks or two players called Quinton? And not just that, but two Quintons in the same draft! I could be wrong, but I don’t think there are any Quintons in this year’s draft class, which is a shame. It would have been a fun trend to continue.
• Trent has had two first round picks in three of his last four drafts. Could the Jags be a trade up candidate to sneak into the back of the first round again, and hit two positions of need on Day 1?
• Of the 29 players Baalke has selected for Jacksonville, only five of them are no longer on the roster (Conner, Parish, Jordan Smith (EDGE), Raymond Vohasek (IDL) and Jalen Camp (WR)). Does this make him a smart evaluator, or is it a damning indictment of the depth of the roster?