Greg Gabriel thinks we should temper expectations for the 2024 season because if the Bears’ plans come together, they’ll be a team built for sustained success year after year.
With the drafting of a potentially great quarterback in Caleb Williams and wide receiver in Rome Odunze, plus the acquisitions of such top offensive players like wide receiver Keenan Allen and running back D’Andre Swift, many of the local media and fans feel the Bears are a good bet to become a Playoff team this season.
The Houston Texans did it last year with a roster on paper less than the Bears, so why can’t the 2024 Chicago Bears? It’s obviously not out of the question, but it is also highly unlikely to happen.
Why?
History has not shown that highly drafted quarterbacks have led their teams to the Playoffs as rookies. In fact, going back to 2012, it has only happened twice.
In 2012, the Indianapolis Colts, with a number one overall draft pick, Andrew Luck, led that Colts team to the playoffs. Last year, number two overall pick C.J. Stroud also led the Houston Texans to a Playoff berth. In between, there have been several very good quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 who have had strong rookie seasons, but their teams did not make the Playoffs.
In 2011, the Colts finished with a record of 2 and 14, got the first pick and selected Luck, and in 2012, they won 11 games and earned a Playoff berth. This was after starting the season with just two wins in the first five games before winning seven of their next eight.
In 2022, the Hoston Texans won a pitiful three games (plus one tie) to finish with the second-worst record in the League, which gave them the opportunity to select Stroud. Like the 2012 Colts team, the Texans started off slowly, winning two of their first five games, but came on strong to finish the season with 10 wins and win the AFC South.
In between, there have been some very good quarterbacks drafted, and while they have had strong rookie years statistically, their teams did not fare as well as those Colts or Texans teams.
In 2020, the Los Angeles Chargers selected Justin Herbert with the sixth overall pick in the Draft and while Herbert had an outstanding year, the Chargers won only seven games. Herbert threw for over 4300 yards and had 31 touchdown passes, but that wasn’t enough for the Chargers to even come close to being a Playoff team.
In 2021, Trevor Lawrence was drafted first overall, and he threw for 3600 yards, 17 TDs, and the Jaguars won just three games. In his second year, they improved to nine wins, including six of their last seven games, to earn a Playoff spot.
In 2018, the Cleveland Browns selected Heisman Trophy-winning Baker Mayfield, and he threw for over 3700 yards, but his team could only win seven games.
In 2018, the Buffalo Bills traded up to select Josh Allen with the seventh overall pick. He has had a great career to date, leading the Bills to playoff berths the last five years, but as a rookie, Allen threw for only 2022 yards and 10 TDs, and the Bills won just six games. Like with Lawrence, it was in year two that the Bills earned a playoff berth.
Kyler Murray went first overall in 2019 to Arizona, and it was in his third season before he led his team to the Playoffs. In fact, in his five seasons in Arizona, the Cardinals have only had a winning season once, and that was in 2021.
Patrick Mahomes is perhaps the best quarterback in football right now, and he only started one game as a rookie. Head Coach Andy Reid had Patrick sit and learn behind Alex Smith that rookie year and then handed him the starting role in year two.
Needless to say, drafting a star quarterback early in the Draft does not mean that the team selecting him is going to become a Playoff team. As history has shown, it happens rarely, and the rookie quarterback not only has to play well, but the whole team has to play well and be lucky.
The 2024 Bears team looks strong on paper, having won five of their last eight games in 2023. The team personnel has greatly improved since last year, but the team has to stay healthy, and Williams has to mature quickly as a pro in order for this team to have success.
The 2024 schedule comes out next week, and once we see who the Bears play early in the season, we will get a chance to see if there is a possibility that they can start off quickly. It’s my opinion that this team needs to gain confidence early in order for them to challenge for a Playoff spot. The NFL North is a tough Division, and winning at least ten games this year means beating Division rivals Detroit and Green Bay, who are already very strong teams.
The reality is that this team may be greatly improved over the 2023 Bears, but that doesn’t mean they are going to be strong enough to make a Playoff run. What’s not needed is for the fan base and media to put too much pressure on a rookie quarterback and tell him he has to get this club to the Playoffs. That’s not fair to him, and history has shown that it’s rare that a rookie actually does.
What is important, however, is for the team to improve and build a base for further winning; the perfect model is the Buffalo Bills. After struggling in 2018 when Josh Allen was a rookie, the team has been to the Playoffs for five straight seasons. That is the kind of success we should be looking for with this Bears team—a team built for sustained success year after year.
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