Greg Gabriel believes that trading down from nine is probably the best option for the Chicago Bears.
With the 2024 NFL Draft just five days away, it’s a foregone conclusion that the Chicago Bears will select USC quarterback Caleb Williams as the first overall pick. However, many Bears fans wonder what the Bears will do about 90 minutes later with the number nine selection.
If we polled Bears’ fans, the overwhelming favorite would be Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze, as he would give Williams another weapon to throw to. The problem is NFL front offices seldom think like fans, so in saying that, there is probably less than a 50% chance the Bears select Odunze.
Yes, Odunze would be a good pick, but is he the best pick for the Bears at this time?
I think not, and mainly because General Manager Ryan Poles made a trade for former Charger wide receiver Keenan Allen in March. Paired with DJ Moore, they’ll give the Bears as good a wide receiver combo as there is in the League. Yes, the Bears still need to add depth to the wide receiver corps, but in a receiver-strong Draft, they can select a very good receiver in the third round.
I always look at the history of what a GM does in the Draft or what the team he came from has done in the Draft in recent years. Ryan Poles came from Kansas City, and in the entire time Poles spent in KC, they never once used a first-round pick on a wide receiver. They did use second-round picks often, but they stayed away from receivers in the first round because Head Coach Andy Reid didn’t believe in using a first-round pick on a receiver.
That doesn’t mean Poles will draft like the Chiefs, but in the two drafts Poles has been here, the Bears had a need at the wide receiver position, and the earliest he used a pick for that position was in 2022 in the third round.
Fans love their team taking receivers because it’s a glamour position, but many front-office people don’t think like that. They would rather use premium round picks on positions of value, and those are offensive and defensive linemen, corners, and quarterbacks.
In talking to some decision makers around the League the last few days, the general feeling is that the Bears want to trade down from nine to obtain more draft picks in this Draft. As of now, the Bears have only four picks: two first-rounders, a third-rounder, and a pick in the fourth round.
While this isn’t a deep draft as far as depth in the late rounds, the first four to five rounds are very good and the second round is extremely strong. Knowing that the best thing that Poles can do for the franchise is to get as many quality players as he can.
What’s better for the club, one wide receiver or two or three quality players who can contribute right away? The answer is obvious: more players!
How far down could the Bears go? A lot of that will be determined by what the Bears Draft Board looks like. Where is the drop-off in talent? Since no two draft boards are alike, the only people who know that answer are the Bears’ decision-makers.
In order to obtain a second-round pick in a trade down, the Bears would have to move at least eight slots. That would put them at 17, and 17 might be below the line for a value player. To obtain a third-round pick, it would be much easier as they would only have to move down about four slots.
If that were the case, the Bears would have two third-round picks to use on Friday, or they could use one of those picks and a pick from next year to move into the second round. It will be interesting to see how that shakes out if the Bears do trade down.
If you have listened to either Poles or Head Coach Matt Eberflus, they have stated on numerous occasions that the Bears’ biggest need is another pass rusher to complement Montez Sweat. Poles has stated that another defensive end is a strong need, while Flus recently said that if the pass rusher was a defensive tackle, that is fine also.
This Draft is not deep with pass rushers. A club with a need can get one early, but after that, it becomes a guessing game as to whether the player will be a contributor as a rookie. The gamble is even stronger since the Bears don’t pick again until the third round.
At nine, the only edge worth taking is Alabama’s Dallas Turner, and he may not be there. By moving back four of five slots, there is a good chance that at least two of the next three pass rushers—and perhaps all three—will be available. Those players are UCLA’s Laiatu Latu, Penn State’s Chop Robinson, and Florida State’s Jared Verse. All three would be plug-and-play starters for the Bears this season and upgrade the position over last year.
Even if the Bears didn’t use the third-round pick obtained in the trade to move up into the second round, they still would have two shots in the third round of selecting a very good wide receiver who will help the team in 2024. Just remember this: When looking at a trade down, you need to compare the package of players that the team selects versus the one player they could have had if they had stayed at nine. There is no question that trading down is the best thing to do.
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