8 things I think about the 2024 NFL Draft

What can we expect when the 2024 NFL Draft gets underway on Thursday night?

The NFL Draft is mere days away after months of anticipation.

While the first pick is all but a sure thing with USC’s Caleb Williams favored to be selected by the Chicago Bears, it’s all uncertain thereafter. Mock draft after mock draft had the Washington Commanders taking Jayden Daniels second overall, but those winds seem to be shifting in the days leading up to all the action in Detroit.

This coming weekend is certain to be packed with surprises, excitement, and possibly even disappointment for NFL fans. These are eight things I think ahead of this year’s draft:

1 – Mock drafts are dumb

Mocks are a necessary part of the pre-draft process and help set expectations and a lens through which to evaluate teams’ decisions. However, everyone in NFL media each publish their own mock draft and they all of them have one single thing in common: they’re all certain to be wrong. 90% of the picks are the same and people online get up in arms as soon as you depart from the consensus.

2 – The draft is a crapshoot

There’s no such thing as a safe pick, and even the player that is billed a surefire 10-year starter and future pro bowler is as likely to bust as an unproven, raw athlete. The risk is more palatable at skill positions and it pays to take swings with upside.

I’d rather gamble on a quarterback, receiver, edge rusher, or corner when it’s a fifty-fifty proposition than take what is supposed to be a franchise tackle for the next decade only for him to be the source of my chronically high blood pressure for the better part of three years. Teams are learning that lesson and we are seeing position value reflected in their first round selections more than ever.

3 – Dan Quinn will be a coordinator again in two to three years if Washington picks Jayden Daniels

I don’t see it with Daniels. He’s a one-year wonder and late bloomer that only took the next step when he was surrounded by two first-round talents at receiver. When he scrambles, he scrambles to run instead of keeping his eyes downfield to find receivers (something Caleb Williams excels at). He’s also notorious for taking big hits and not protecting his body, and that never fares well at the NFL level.

To me, Daniels is a slightly leaner Justin Fields. They have similar challenges in their makeup too. I wouldn’t want to tie my coaching future or franchise to this quarterback prospect, and if the Commanders end up selecting him at two overall the coaching staff and regime likely won’t be around to fix their mistake.

4 – Minnesota is billed as the team most desperate for a QB, but others are in bad shape

Minnesota Vikings fans will probably be disappointed if their team isn’t able to package their two first round picks to move up for their quarterback of the future, but it would be encouraging to see the team show prudence and patience if the right deal or player isn’t available. Sure, the front office will face tough questions if they don’t come away with a top quarterback but not forcing a fit will play dividends in the long run.

I’d say there are teams even more desperate at QB than the Vikings, who can fall back on Sam Darnold who will probably position Minnesota to find their guy next year if needed. The New York Jets are tied to Aaron Rodgers who is 40 and tore his achilles less than a year ago. The Los Angeles Rams are in a similar boat with Matthew Stafford at age 36. Stafford has no guaranteed money left on his deal after this year, and the Rams are possibly tipping their hand that they may want to keep an eye toward the future.

The New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, and Denver Broncos are also in pretty rough shape when it comes to signal caller.

5 – Laiatu Latu will be remembered as the best edge rusher from this class

Alabama’s Dallas Turner is probably the consensus top edge rusher and defensive player in this year’s crop; however, Latu was the more productive player and tracking data suggests he’s an elite athlete. Yes, his neck injury is a concern; however, there’s truly no telling what impact this will have on his career. For every Leighton Vander Esch, who was drafted by the Dallas Cowboys and recently retired young with a neck injury, there is a Robert Quinn, who the Rams took in the first round and watched him have a long and prosperous career while overcoming a brain tumor. Rob Gronkwoski fell in the draft because of a back injury and he played for longer than a decade. Like I said earlier, the draft is a crapshoot so you might as well bet on what you can see—and Latu is the best defensive player available when he’s on the field.

6 – The Rams need more blue chip players

Los Angeles should be commended for how they find starting caliber players late in the draft year in and year out. Kobie Turner and Byron Young outplayed their draft position last season and will be important building blocks for the future; however, it remains to be seen whether either of them will become elite.

Finding a true difference maker won’t be easy at 19 overall, which is why it would make sense for the Rams to move up for a shot at Brock Bowers, Joe Alt, Rome Odunze, Latu, Byron Murphy, or Quinyon Mitchell. While it will cost LA draft capital either this year or next, the margin between great and good is important—and it’s something the Rams haven’t had easy access to without a first round pick in the last eight years.

The retirement of Aaron Donald could loom large for Los Angeles in 2024.

7 – Nathaniel Hackett isn’t right play caller for Brock Bowers

There may be no more commonly mocked pick, other than Williams to the Bears at one, more than the Jets taking TE Brock Bowers at #10. Whoever picks Bowers in the first round will need to have a plan to utilize him, because tight ends on their own aren’t overly valuable pieces of a football team. His offensive coordinator will need to move him around and make the defense identify where he’s lined up before every play—whether that be in the backfield, inline, the slot, or out wide.

Has Hackett demonstrated that he would be able to make the most of a star chess piece? Bowers seems best suited to be selected elsewhere.

8 – Cardinals could challenge for NFC West crown

The Arizona Cardinals have spent the last couple of offseasons tearing down an aging roster and accumulating draft capital. While Kyler Murray has spent recent seasons battling injury, he could still very well be the top quarterback in the NFC West even over Matthew Stafford and Brock Purdy. Arizona will likely find a top pass catcher to complement blossoming tight end Trey McBride. There is a lot of work to do on defense, but Arizona will have plenty of dart throws to give Jonathan Gannon tools to work with.

We could see a resurgent Cardinals team in the NFC West as soon as 2024.