2024 NFL Draft quarterback deep dive: Caleb Williams, USC

Williams is the prohibitive favorite to be the first pick in the draft

USC quarterback Caleb Williams is widely expected to be the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. It’s essentially a foregone conclusion at this point that the Chicago Bears will draft Williams, and the actual intrigue in the draft will start with the second pick.

But while there’s no realistic (or unrealistic) chance that Williams is going to be picked by the New York Giants, he’ll be in the NFC. That means the Giants will have to deal with Williams for at least the next five years. It would behoove them, and us, to be familiar with him

Background

Williams was very highly regarded and heavily recruited coming out of high school. He was widely considered one of the best recruits at any position in the country, and was ranked as the top “Dual Threat” quarterback by both Rivals and ESPN, while 247Sports considered him the second-best quarterback overall.

He was graded as a five-star recruit by Rivals and 247Sports, and a four-star recruit by ESPN, and received offers from 24 different schools before committing to Oklahoma in 2021.

Williams went to Oklahoma to play for Lincoln Riley who has a history of getting great play out of dual threat quarterbacks. The Sooners recruited Spencer Rattler the year before, and also saw Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Jalen Hurts all go to the NFL after finding success in Riley’s system. Notably, both Mayfield and Murray were selected with the first overall pick.

Williams beat out Rattler for the starting job in 2021, then transferred from Oklahoma to USC when Riley was hired as the Trojans’ head coach in 2022. Williams immediately found success in his new home, winning the Heisman Trophy after a fantastic season.

Measurables

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Williams is slightly undersized compared to the average NFL quarterback. He’s shorter than ideal, coming in roughly two inches below the NFL’s average height for quarterbacks. He’s also a bit lighter than average as well, weighing about 7 pounds less than the average of 221.

However, he isn’t a small quarterback.

While Williams’ height and weight are less than average, he has a stocky physique with obvious power in his lower body. He has thick legs and has good play strength, which he maximizes with his natural leverage and low center of gravity. He generates good power through his legs, while his short torso allows him to generate torque when he can’t drive his throws with his legs.

Likewise, his build gives him good balance and change of direction skills.

Williams has long arms and big hands for his height, which are obvious benefits as a passer. His arm length allows him to compensate for his height when throwing from the pocket. His release point is on par with that of a taller quarterback when he uses a classic “over the top” throwing motion, and he doesn’t have many passes batted at the line of scrimmage.

His big hands allow him to easily grip the ball when running or scrambling. He can occasionally be careless with the ball, however he has exceptional control over it under most situations. Williams is able to pump-fake or keep the ball out and ready to throw when scrambling, rather than being forced to tuck it away out of fear of dropping it. Williams’ hand size also gives him the option of gripping the ball lightly and throwing with touch.

Intangibles

So much of what we focus on with quarterbacks is tangible — things like their height, weight, 40 time, or their ball velocity. However much of what makes a quarterback successful is intangible.

We can’t really measure things like mental processing, football IQ, leadership, or competitiveness, but we can see their effects.

Football IQ and Mental processing

Williams is known for his physical ability as a passer, however his arm talent and athleticism really serve to express the mental aspect of his game. Evaluating that, however, is equal parts fun, fascinating, and frustrating.

To start, the USC offense didn’t put a whole lot on Williams’ mental plate. Their passing game was largely simple passing concepts that schemed separation for a receiver or put a single defender in conflict and allowed Williams to throw to the uncovered receiver. Very often he was executing one or two-man reads, simple “catch and throw” concepts or RPOs. There were few, if any, full-field reads in USC’s offense and Williams wasn’t asked to scan the field within the structure of the play.

That doesn’t mean, however, that he isn’t a sophisticated quarterback. Williams flashes the understanding and ability to manipulate the defense with his eyes and body language. He knows when and how to freeze linebackers with a run fake or look off safeties to maximize receiving windows. He also shows an understanding of when discretion is the better part of valor and a willingness to throw the ball away when a play isn’t there – at least within the structure of the play.

It’s important to distinguish in-structure and out of structure plays when evaluating Caleb Williams. That’s because, frankly, Williams thrives on chaos and he goes to considerable lengths to create it.

Every play is seemingly on the knife-edge of devolving into backyard football with Williams behind center. He makes liberal use of pump-fakes in his game, trying to force defenders to bite on passes that aren’t coming or hesitate. He’s also very willing to hold the ball and flow within the pocket to buy time for his receivers to work open. Williams also routinely performs vanishing acts, evading defenders and escaping the pocket to scramble. His receivers must be alert to the scramble drill at all times, and understand how he likes to operate behind the line of scrimmage. Williams has a tendency to go big play hunting once he escapes the pocket and is willing to run around for as long as necessary, or attempt any throw in which he can see a flash of friendly colors.

Williams’ athleticism and arm talent allow him to convert more of these plays than not, leading to some spectacular highlights. However, he can also get himself in trouble, attempting throws he simply shouldn’t even consider. He also opens himself up to some big hits, sacks, and the occasional fumble when he tries to do too much and his luck runs out.

There’s also a slight similarity between Williams and Michael Vick.

Former Giants’ defensive coordinator Perry Fewell hacked “Video Game Vick” back in 2010. The Giants used a combination of quarters coverage to take away the Eagles’ explosive plays and pressure to Vicks’ strong-side (the left, in his case) to derail what was a dominant Philadelphia offense.

Williams showed a tendency to have his play degrade when the opposing defense was able to pressure him from his right. His mechanics and accuracy would break down, and he would take more hits than from pressure to his left. He seemingly didn’t process it as efficiently and was much less consistent. Likewise, Williams seems to get a bit frustrated and prone to mistakes when the defense is able to take away big plays. He’s an aggressive quarterback and not one to simply take what the defense gives him.

This did improve from his 2022 tape to his 2023 tape. Williams got better at processing pressure to his right, throwing with more consistency and showing more poise when avoiding and escaping rushers. He was also more willing to take check-downs or throw the ball away when the big play wasn’t there.

It’s something he’ll likely need to continue working on at the NFL level, particularly as the game speeds up and gets more sophisticated on both sides of the ball.

Leadership and Toughness

Williams has been dogged by questions about his leadership and toughness since last summer.

Reports emerged over the summer that Williams and his father had discussed demanding an equity stake in the team that drafts him. That turned out to be moot, as the NFL passed a rule denying players (and non-players) equity stakes in teams. Questions regarding Williams’ mental toughness emerged after he was spotted crying with his mother after USC’s loss to Washington.

Colin Cowherd claimed after the season that Williams didn’t want to play for the Chicago Bears. That claim, it should be noted, was strongly denied by Williams and his team, and it was retracted by Cowherd on his next show.

Regardless of the reports and questions’ merit, they created a perception of Williams as something of a “diva”. There has been a sense, at least among some fans, that Williams is a “me first” player who’s more interested in his brand than helping a team win.

ESPN’s Field Yates said earlier in the draft process that scouts he talked to had no such concerns.

“I gotta be honest with you guys, I think some of it has been unfair to Caleb so far,” Yates said.

“I haven’t heard anything from anybody that’s been in that program, or that’s been around that program, scouting Caleb Williams in person. I can’t say that I’ve spoken to every NFL scout that’s been through the USC campus. But nobody I’ve spoken with has told me ‘His character is such a concern that you need to be investigating it night and day until the draft.’ As a matter of fact, nothing even close to that.

Yates added, “Honestly, I don’t think character is like a red flag, or leadership is a red flag for Caleb Williams at all.”

Questions about Williams’ toughness seem a bit silly in light of his tape. He’s an undeniably aggressive – and occasionally over-aggressive – quarterback who seems to be willing to do whatever it takes to win. He’ll challenge any coverage, risk big hits in the backfield, and take on contact as a runner to help his team.

Teammate Brenden Rice told NFL Hall of Famer Ronde Barber that after he (Rice) was benched early in the season for trying to rush back from a hamstring injury, Williams told him “Look, I don’t care what’s going on or anything like that. I know how hard you work in practice. You’re going to get the ball, and you’re going to score and make the most of your opportunities each down. You make the most of your opportunities, and I promise you that you’ll look back on this moment and start laughing.”

It turned out to be just what Rice needed to hear, when he needed to hear it.

Arm Talent

Williams possesses remarkable arm talent, which is the defining feature of his game. It’s common knowledge that he not only has a remarkably strong arm, but also a remarkably elastic one.

He has a quick, compact throwing motion and does a good job of generating power from the ground up when throwing from a good base. His footwork is generally efficient and has little wasted movement in his drops.

Williams might not have the strongest arm in the NFL, but he’s able to drive the ball to all areas of the field when throwing with a reasonable base. He has plenty of velocity to the short and intermediate areas of the field, is able to alter his trajectory, and execute any throw asked of him. Williams makes heavy use of his mobility as a quarterback and routinely throws on the move. He’s able to throw when sprinting to both his left and right, and is able generate sufficient velocity to challenge tight coverage when throwing off platform. He does a good job of creating power through his trunk when throwing on the move and is able to generate velocity with his arm alone.

He’s able to throw from pretty much any arm slot he chooses, from a classic “over the top” motion to a three-quarter arm slot, to a side-arm, and even an (almost) underhand motion when necessary. He typically throws with solid velocity and accuracy from all arm slots, though his “classic” motion generally produces the best results.

He’s also accurate when throwing on the move and is capable of placing the ball well when throwing back across his body.

Williams does have a curious relationship with accuracy overall.

He’s consistently accurate laterally, placing the ball well on the appropriate horizontal plane. He routinely puts the ball on the play-side of his receivers, allowing them to catch it in-stride and without having to slow down or contort. That sets them up for yards after the catch and allows them to exploit schemed separation from defensive backs. He also flashes an understanding of how to place the ball to lead his receiver away from contact and protect them. There were instances where Williams placed the ball low and away from his receiver, increasing the difficulty of the catch, but the necessary adjustments took the receiver away from a looming hit from an incoming defender.

Likewise, Williams does a good job of placing the ball such that the receiver is between it and the nearest defender. That made it more difficult for the defender to make a play on the ball, even if the receiver had to make a more difficult catch as well.

On the flip side of that, Williams seemed to have difficulty gauging the distance on his throws. He has a tendency to overthrow his receivers, either simply launching the ball too far downfield or forcing his receivers to leave their feet as he throws it over their heads.

Williams’ overthrows come when throwing in rhythm from a stable pocket as well as when he’s throwing on the move. There doesn’t seem to be a consistent pattern to his overthrows, so perhaps he’s simply over-excited or doesn’t quite understand his own arm strength. He’s certainly capable of layering the ball between defenders, and perhaps he’s attempting to do so on these passes and misses the mark.

This isn’t exactly a knock on Williams’ passing or accuracy, but it’s something of which his future team will need to be aware. His future team will almost certainly want to take advantage of his ability to push the ball down the field, but there might be some missed opportunities early on.

Athleticism

Williams’ athleticism goes part and parcel with his arm talent. He’s well known as an athletic quarterback who uses his mobility to facilitate his passing.

We don’t know Williams’ athletic testing numbers, so we don’t have a way to quantify his athleticism compared to other quarterbacks. However, if we define “athleticism” as the athlete’s ability to solve three dimensional problems in real time through movement, then Williams is a very good athlete.

As noted above, Williams has a relatively stocky physique. And while he lacks prototypical height for the position, he makes use of his powerful lower body and relatively low center of gravity to enable his backfield Houdini acts.

Where other quarterbacks may try to shrug off would-be tacklers through sheer size and strength, Williams instead drops his hips similarly to a scat-back evading a defender in space. Williams’ low center of gravity gives him great contact balance and he’s able to survive contact in the backfield, as well as pivot and escape the pocket when defenders over-commit and give him an escape route. Williams has enough quickness and speed to buy time for himself in the backfield and outrun defenders if he needs to turn his scramble into a carry.

USC did ask Williams to carry the ball on designed QB runs, as well as read-option plays. He’s carried the ball 210 times over the last two seasons, picking up 524 yards and 21 touchdowns over that span. It’s worth noting that not all of those carries were intended to be quarterback runs, and scrambles that turned into runs are a part of that total.

And while Williams was a productive runner in college, it would be a mistake to consider him a dynamic rushing threat. He appears to have just average (at best) speed in the open field and lacks great burst. His field vision does translate into vision as a runner, but he isn’t much of a threat to gash the defense. Williams has only averaged 2.5 yards per carry over the last two years.

It’s more accurate to say that Williams is able to hurt a defense when they turn their back on him – such as in a scramble against man coverage or with misdirection in a read-option play – than he is a truly dangerous runner.

Projectable Stats

The use of stats and analytics is changing how we view and analyze the game of football. However, just because we have masses of data points, doesn’t mean we automatically make better decisions. Data that’s misunderstood or poorly interpreted is the same as no data at all, and distracting noise at worst.

However, there are some stats and advanced analytics that do have predictive value. Some stats, such as sack rate, are “sticky” and can follow quarterbacks from college to the NFL, as well as from team to team.

For our purposes, we’ll be looking at completion percentage, yards per game, EPA, and ESPN’s QBR. Each of those stats have a moderately-strong to strong correlation coefficient between college and the NFL. None of them are definitive, but they’re another tool that can help provide a backstop to check bias as well as confirm what we did (or didn’t) see on tape. For reference, I’ll be listing their rank among top quarterback prospects in 2023.

Yards Per Game: 302.8 (4th)
Completion Percentage: 68.6 (5th)
EPA: 70.1 (5th)
ESPN QBR: 82.3 (5th)
Sack Rate: 7.8 percent (7th)

Similarly to Drake Maye, Williams took a step backward in 2023 after a stellar performance in 2022.

Williams saw his yards per game, pass attempts, EPA, and QBR all drop in 2023, while his sack rate and interception rate both rose. And like Maye, Williams did lose a good receiver to the NFL in Jordan Addison. Unlike Maye, Williams played in largely the same scheme in both seasons, though there did appear to be more quick “catch and throw” passes and RPO concepts in USC’s offense in 2023.

The decline in stats could be explained by the highly volatile nature of Williams’ game as a whole. Williams thrives on chaos, relying on his mobility and arm talent to exploit a stressed defense. However, when opposing defenses were able to stay disciplined and didn’t allow Williams to wreck the structure of their coverages, his out-of-structure play wasn’t as effective. The chances he takes don’t pay off as often, there are fewer explosive plays, and the margin of error is much tighter.

It’s also notable that Williams was saddled with the 121st ranked scoring defense in 2023, which gave up an average of 34.4 points per game. That allowed opposing defenses to play with leads and with less pressure to compensate for their own offense.

The combination of factors showed Williams’ sky-high ceiling a year ago, as well as what a potential regression could look like when things don’t go his way.

Game Tape

Final Word

Caleb Williams has been the prohibitive favorite to be the first pick in the 2024 Draft since the end of his 2022 season.

And for good reason. Williams isn’t the biggest, strongest, or most athletic quarterback in the draft. He isn’t a surgeon with the ball or a field general.

What he does have is a rare arm talent, uncommon (if not elite) mobility, and an understanding of how to use his traits to attack the defense in ways they may not be equipped to handle.

Williams shares traits with some of the very best quarterbacks in the world, and comparisons to them roll off evaluators’ tongues. He produces highlights at a prodigious rate that make it easy to overlook his poor decisions. His ability to be an escape artist and stress the defense to the breaking point can help cover for a roster’s deficiency.

He isn’t a perfect prospect. Williams will almost certainly ride the rookie rollercoaster as he acclimates to the NFL. He’ll need to continue to develop and work on his deficiencies to reach his ceiling as a pro. That ceiling, however, is incredibly exciting and it isn’t a mystery why he’s still expected to be the first pick in the draft.