12 Bold Predictions for the 2024 Commanders and NFL Draft Way Too Early Recap

Plenty of QBs, but where were the OTs?

With the 2024 NFL draft in the rear view mirror, it is time to recap my bold predictions and mark the ones that can be evaluated at this time.

As usual, there were some big surprises in this year’s draft. But the biggest surprise of was, I actually predicted one of the biggest ones.

Before I start, I have to flog myself for leaving points on the field. As you might have guessed from the frightful lack of proof reading, I found myself racing to get through my pre-draft articles this year, due to a two-week family holiday at the beginning of April. In my rush to get the predictions out, I seem to have overlooked predicting that the Commanders would draft a big wide receiver.

Oh well, at least my roundup of defenders who arrive violently got one across the line. If I had just thought of writing one on offensive tackles that we won’t draft, I could have cleaned up.

Here is how this year’s Bold Predictions are travelling, three days after the fact.

1. A year from now, the majority of Hogs Haven readers will feel that the Commanders have found their QB of the future.

Adam Peters had his choice of the QBs available after the Chicago Bears selected Caleb Williams first overall. He selected the Heisman winning dual threat playmaker from LSU, Jayden Daniels, who had been the odds-on favorite for the Commanders’ pick. The selection of Daniels along with the rest of the Commanders’ draft got good grades from media analysts, and was well received by Hogs Haven readers, notwithstanding a tiny minority who are still salty that he didn’t pick their guy, an OT or trade back.

Jayden Daniels will ride into Washington on a wave of optimism and good will. If the history of QBs drafted near the top of the first round is any indication, he has about a 50% of catching on long term, although that number might get revised down if you take a more granular look at where he was picked in the top 10.

The chance that a QB drafted in the first round will play like a legit NFL starter in his first season is significantly lower than 50%, but it does happen. In fact, the QB selected second overall last year made the Pro Bowl as a rookie, as did the last QB Washington selected with the second pick.

Whether Jayden Daniels has a rookie season like C.J. Stroud or more like Trevor Lawrence, I remain confident that the fanbase, myself included, will be high on his future at season’s end.

Verdict: On track

2. A year from now, Washington’s situation at offensive tackle will be a subject of debate.

Everyone expected the Commanders to make an OT their second selection, with the hope of landing a Year 1 starter at pick #36, if not sooner via a trade back into the first round. I seem to have been less hopeful than most that they would be able to pull it off after making their first pick a QB.

Thanks to the amazing work of Hogs Haven insider IrishSkins sending updates from the Commanders’ war room in real time, we know that Adam Peters was on the phone, trying to make a deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers to draft Washington LT Troy Fautanu.

Oklahoma LT Tyler Guyton has also claimed that the Commanders were making a move to trade up and draft him, although it is not clear how he found out. The Cowboys did effectively snuff out Washington’s last chance to draft an OT with even a mid- to early starting projection:

Not for want of trying, Adam Peters found himself empty handed at the top of the second round, with all the OTs graded as early starters off the board, and much better value at other positions.

The Commanders did eventually pick TCU OT Brandon Coleman with the 3^rd pick in the 3^rd round. Coleman is a freakishly athletic prospect with the desired arm length, but is slightly shorter than prototypical height for the position. Most analysts project him to guard in the NFL, but Adam Peters has indicated that the Commanders see him as a tackle. He is a developmental prospect with tremendous upside, but it would be a pleasant surprise if he was ready to take starting snaps at OT this season.

That leaves fans’ hopes for improved play at OT resting on someone stepping up, or Adam Peters finding a solution on the FA market or via trade before the season starts. A lot can happen between now and opening day. But as of this writing, this prediction is looking safe.

Verdict: On track

3. The Washington Commanders will make Olu Fashanu their second selection in the 2024 draft

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Not content to let others have all the fun, I put my hat in the ring of OT speculation late in the process, spinning a trade scenario that would allow the Commanders to draft one of two LT prospects graded as likely early starters, without mortgaging their future.

Unfortunately, the Jets picked Fashanu 11^th, at the early end of his expected range, leaving just University of Washington LT Troy Fautanu remaining as a prospect who might be able to start at LT in year 1, if everything works out, and two premium RTs (Taliese Fuaga, Amarius Mims). The Commanders took a shot at Fautanu as well as developmental LT Tyler Guyton. However, Pittsburgh rejected Washington’s best offer and made Fautanu their selection at 20.

Meanwhile, Dallas got wind of Washington’s interest in Guyton and took him off the board with the 29^th pick they obtained in a trade back with Detroit.

When all the dust had settled, Washington ended up as the odd man out.

Verdict: Right concept, but incorrect

4. At least two QBs selected in the top 5, after Caleb Williams, will not become long term NFL starters

There was an assumption when I made this prediction that someone would move into the top 5 to pick J.J. McCarthy. Since that didn’t happen, I really hope I get this one wrong.

Unfortunately, if the past decade of NFL drafts are anything to go by, the odds are on the prediction’s side. Everyone thinks they have found the face of the franchise on draft night, but the truth is, QBs drafted in the top-12 have around a 50% chance of becoming long term starters and an even lower chance of becoming premium players. However, QBs picked in the range from 2 through 5 have fared worse than those picked elsewhere in the first round. A lot worse.

Which QBs drafted in the first round will make it and which ones will bust is anyone’s guess at this point. Jayden Daniels has as good a chance as anyone in Kliff Kingsbury’s wide open offense, if the Commanders can find a way to protect him. On paper, he has better weapons to work with than his predecessor, an offensive scheme built to accentuate his strengths, and coaches who seem to know what they are doing.

Verdict: Incomplete

5. The Minnesota Vikings will do a blockbuster trade with the LA Chargers to pick a QB fifth overall

Photo by John Smolek/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Minnesota GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah must have done some last minute cramming on the DraftBot Directives. Rather than doing a costly trade with the Chargers, as I envisioned, he saved some draft capital (DraftBot’s Second Directive) by trading with the Jets to move up a single slot to select the same QB he would have got at #5. Moving up from 11 to 5 would have cost him 110 points, about equal to pick #51 or #52 in the second round. Instead, the pick swap to move up one point only cost him the value of a fifth round pick. Presumably, he had reason to believe he had competition.

Nice work on the Jet’s part to trade back one spot to draft the player they intended to pick at 10 and pick up and additional pick in the fourth round and upgrade their seventh round pick to a fifth, while wrecking my third bold prediction and hammering another nail in Washington’s OT coffin in the process.

Verdict: Incorrect

6. The QB the Vikings target in the trade will fail to live up to their expectations.

Adofo-Mensah’s discretion in avoiding a costly trade up to the top 5 moves the destination pick out of the zone of certain failure. Teams have had success trading up to positions outside the top 5 to draft QBs, such as the Kansas City Chiefs, who picked Patrick Mahomes 10^th overall and the Bills who nabbed Josh Allen by moving up to 7^th.

Had the Vikings not traded and picked their QB 11^th overall, this prediction would have been rendered incorrect. Since they did trade for a QB, I can still get it right if J.J. McCarthy fails to become a quality starter.

Verdict: Quietly confident

7. The Commanders will draft a defensive lineman before pick #152.

Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images

Nailed it!

In a move no one saw coming, not even me, the Commanders picked DL Johnny Newton 36^th overall, instead of an offensive tackle, fellow first round slider CB Cooper DeJean, or an offensive tackle.

My poorly proof-read prediction foresaw the Commanders picking another defensive lineman to help DC Joe Whitt to replicate the DL rotation his boss ran in Dallas. While nominally a 4-3 base defense, the defensive front was very different to Jack Del Rio’s vanilla scheme. He used DT Osa Odighizuwa on 59.5% of snaps, and rotated four other DTs in most games, playing them between 27% and 33% of defensive snaps. He also had two tweeners, Osa and Chauncey Golston, whom he moved around between iDL and EDGE.

By my count, he is two iDL short, assuming he has noticed that 2022 second round pick, Phidarian Mathis, was one of the worst DTs to set foot on an NFL field last season.

I had expected the Commanders to draft a smaller, explosive DT, like Ruke Orhorhoro or Mekhi Wingo somewhere between the third and fifth rounds. Everyone else expected the Commanders to spend their draft picks on positions with more most pressing immediate needs. They waited until after the draft to sign Virginia Tech’s Norell Pollard, who fits that profile:

Nothing in my previous experience as a Washington fan over the past 24 years had prepared me for the new GM’s level of commitment to drafting the best players available to restock the roster with premium talent. In doing so, he actually did address a need for the defensive coaching staff which appears to have flown under Commanders’ fans radars.

Verdict: Corrrect

8. The Commanders will draft a press-man CB in the third round.

In hindsight, this is was an overly needs-driven prediction. Nevertheless, along with everyone else, I was certain that the Commanders would be picking at least one large, physical CB who excels in press-man coverage, to help DC Joe Whitt implement his coverage schemes in DC.

I suppose the value at CB did not align with any of the Commanders picks when those types of CBs were available. Instead, Adam Peters drafted nickel CB Mike Sainstril, who is just a little lighter and a fair bit faster than Jourdan Lewis who played slot CB for him in Dallas. Unlike Del Rio, who used nickel safeties to cover the slot, Whitt uses a full time slot corner. Lewis played 68.4% of snaps last season. Given the level of competition he faces on the Commanders’ roster, I expect Sainstril to get plenty of playing time in 2023.

It will be interesting to how the Commanders cover the boundaries in 2024.

Verdict: Incorrrect

9. The Commanders will draft a running back.

Um, er, ah…. Hey, look! A squirrel!

I knew this one was a bad idea at the time, but I was short on material and it was getting late.

Somehow I blanked on predicting they would draft a big receiver, after having written a roundup entitled Big Wide Receivers the Commanders Need in the 2024 Draft. It even included Luke McCaffrey, whom they did end up drafting. Doh!

Verdict: Woefully incorrect

10. WR Keon Coleman will outplay at least four WRs drafted before him

Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Coleman was projected to be drafted in the mid to late second round after running a slow 40 time at the Combine. Instead, Buffalo snapped him up with the first pick of the second round. They must have watched the game tape. Catching passes from Josh Allen in one of the NFL’s top offenses will give him every chance to make this one come true.

However, the prediction was made on the assumption that he would be drafted in the second half of the second round giving him a few more opportunities to outplay WRs drafted ahead of him. That could make this one tighter than I had hoped.

Verdict: Still could happen

11. WR Malik Washington will exceed expectations of his draft status.

Malik was projected to be drafted around the end of the 3^rd round to the 4^th round. He was second to Malik Nabers in receiving yardage last season, but was downgraded on draft boards because he is only 5-8. He ended up being drafted by the Dolphins with the 8^th pick of the 6^th round. He could find it challenging to carve a niche in the Dolphin’s deep WR room and might have to earn playing time returning kickoffs as a rookie. He will also face competition from the subject of the next prediction.

Verdict: Incomplete but not looking hopeful

12. This year’s Puka Nacua is Tahj Washington.

Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images

If he had landed just about anywhere else, Tahj would be in with chance to put up eye-popping receiving totals for a rookie WR drafted on Day 3. Sadly for this prediction, Tahj was drafted by Miami in the 7^th round and will have to compete for touches with Tyreek Hill and a very crowded WR room.

On a positive note, there is now a good chance that at least one receiver named Washington will end up getting stashed on Miami’s practice squad. If that happens, Washington should pounce at the opportunity to bring Washington to DC.

Verdict: Incomplete but not looking hopeful

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Bold Predictions Challenge Update

Qualifying entries were received from the following thirteen Hogs Haven identities:

Radfrom England

TheGump

WashingtonFMJ_BulletSkins

OffSeasonOptimist

Joeburger

Quanzanon

Ptowny757

Bobby_Gould

Redskins91

soup du jour

OldSkinner

IrishSkins

SkinsaneAsylum

I will review the progress of their predictions ahead of next season’s draft and generously award the most bold and accurate.

Disappointingly, none of Hogs Haven’s resident talent evaluation experts took the opportunity to flex their superior prognostic prowess. Maybe next year.

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