If Kirk Cousins signs elsewhere, securing a QBOTF in the draft next month becomes a lot more critical
As the signs of Kirk Cousins potentially moving on from the Vikings begin to accumulate, the question of what the Vikings’ front office have in mind as an alternative to signing Cousins begins to take on more urgency.
What is the Plan?
The Vikings have no shortage of options in free agency for a future quarterback, but the fact that they recently hired a new quarterback coach in Josh McCown and have been diligently researching and meeting with the top quarterback prospects in this year’s NFL Draft suggest their main focus may be on drafting a rookie quarterback and preparing him to be the starter come September.
But with pick #11, the Vikings are in a dicey situation. The top 3 quarterbacks in the draft could very well go in the first three picks, and a team like the Broncos or Raiders could jump the Vikings to select a quarterback as well. And even if the Falcons sign Kirk Cousins, they still may look to draft a quarterback with their #8 pick. That could leave the Vikings’ brass uncomfortably staring into space in their war room on the opening night of the draft, knowing the quarterback they coveted has already been drafted.
For Vikings’ GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, that scenario would likely lead to a quick end to his life as an NFL general manager. And so to avoid such a fate, he may well be focused on securing a trade up in the draft that will put him in unassailable position to draft his QBOTF.
Trading Up in the Draft
The issue is finding a trade partner picking sufficiently high in the draft willing to trade down for an acceptable amount of compensation.
It’s unlikely, even if the Chicago Bears were willing to trade down- which is unlikely in itself- that they would do so with a division rival- giving the Vikings the top pick in the draft and a potential franchise quarterback. Perhaps for a very hefty premium, but given the circumstances, this seems the most unlikely trade partner for the Vikings.
The Washington Commanders pick second. They have new ownership, new GM, and new coach. Any realistic assessment of their ability to win their division with their current roster and a rookie quarterback comes back a definite no. The Cowboys and Eagles are both way ahead of them in the quality of their rosters and ability to win their division. The Commanders also have lost a couple key starters on their offensive line to free agency and apart from Terry McLaurin, don’t have any legitimate weapons offensively. And defensively they need upgrades at almost every position and are talking about trading DT Jonathan Allen. They also saw what happened when the Bears and Panthers took a QB high in the first round without much of a team around him.
And so rather than take a QB and effectively throw him to the wolves, they may opt to build the rest of their roster first and draft a quarterback later. With that in mind, they may well be willing to trade back in the draft and pick up some valuable draft capital needed to build their roster in the next couple years. Enter the Vikings.
The Vikings could offer them their #11 and #42 draft picks this year, and their first-round pick next year, in exchange for the Commanders #2 pick. That works for both sides using the Rich Hill value chart. That would give the Commanders 5 picks in the top 70 this year, and two first-round picks next year. The Commanders front office may also figure that 2024 will be a rebuilding year for them and they may end up with a top ten draft position in the 2025 draft. They may also figure that the Vikings, with a rookie quarterback in a division with two playoff teams in 2023 and a rising Bears team, won’t make the playoffs next year and their first-round pick could also be in the top half of the first round. That would give the Commanders plenty of draft capital to move up as needed for a top quarterback in the 2025 draft.
With the second pick in the draft, the Vikings would be in position to pick any quarterback in the draft not named Caleb Williams. If such a deal could be reached, the Vikings would want to secure it in advance of the draft. In fact, just how far the Vikings are willing to go (or not go) to extend Kirk Cousins may be a reflection of how secure they feel about selecting their QBOTF in this year’s draft.
The Commanders are not the only potential trade partner picking sufficiently high for the Vikings to draft their guy. The Patriots at #3 are in a similar situation as the Commanders in not being likely to win their division next year with the Bills, Dolphins, and Rodgers-led Jets contending against them. They also have a lot of holes to fill in their roster and don’t have as many early round picks as the Commanders. They could be induced into trading down for a similar, but lesser deal from the Vikings as that above with the Commanders.
Arizona at #4 and the Chargers at #5 are both set at QB and likely in business to move down. How far down they’re willing to go is a question, but if they could also trade back and then back up again if need be with the extra draft capital from the Vikings. The Vikings could possibly trade up to one of these spots for their #42 pick. But that creates more uncertainty in terms of another team trading up ahead of them or their desired quarterback being selected ahead of them.
The Giants at #6 will think long and hard about whether they want to pick a quarterback with their first pick and could potentially trade up for one. They can get out of the Daniel Jones contract next year. But they have a lot of holes in their offensive line and could use a top WR and edge rusher too. They’re also not in contention to win their division next year either. So they may look to build their roster at other positions rather than focus on quarterback. They could be a potential trade partner for the Vikings as well, but not an ideal one if a team like the Broncos or Raiders decides to move up with a team picking ahead of them- which is a distinct possibility.
Who Would the Vikings Trade Up For?
If the Vikings moved all the way up to the #2 spot in the draft, it would be to draft one of the top three quarterbacks in the draft. I doubt they’d plan on being able to land Caleb Williams, but certainly are doing their due diligence in the event he’s available to them. They’re reportedly high on Drake Maye- whom their new quarterbacks coach Josh McCown used to coach in high school.
But an interesting tidbit Alec Lewis wrote about in The Athletic is that according to an LSU staffer, the Vikings were one of the first teams to evaluate and express interest in Jayden Daniels. He wasn’t as hot a prospect as Williams and Maye a year ago, so the fact that the Vikings were one of the first teams looking into him is more noteworthy. Maye, followed closely by Daniels, are the two most likely quarterbacks to be selected with the second pick in the draft. There are some analysts that rate Daniels ahead of Caleb Williams and/or put him ahead of Drake Maye.
And then there is JJ McCarthy. He’s a bit of a wildcard as he doesn’t have the passing reps the other top QBs do, but he has arguably the best intangibles and seems to have all the traits too. Some pundits think he could go in the top three picks, but most see him going later than that- but no later than #12. He’s just 21 years old.
My feeling is that the Vikings are looking at trading up for Jayden Daniels. From most every draft profile he has a high football IQ, great accuracy, anticipation, and touch on his passes, poised in the pocket, and with five years of starting experience in college, good understanding of defenses, protections, and field awareness. And he’s the most explosive dual-threat quarterback since Lamar Jackson. The biggest ding on him is his slender size. Some lesser concerns about deep ball accuracy and not having the most arm strength in the draft class.
But we’ll have to wait and see what unfolds. Free agency hasn’t even started yet, but it wouldn’t be surprising with signs pointing to Kirk Cousins’ exit from Minnesota, if the Vikings weren’t making a big push to move up in the draft.
Stay tuned.
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