Will Michael Penix be a first round pick?

The Rams trade up for Michael Penix in a Mel Kiper mock draft, is that what should happen?

The concept of the Los Angeles Rams drafting Washington quarterback Michael Penix gained steam this week when ESPN’s Mel Kiper and Field Yates orchestrated a trade-up for Penix in a recent mock draft. It obviously does not mean that the Rams are any more likely to draft Penix than they were last week, this mock is meaningless as the Rams are concerned, but is Penix going to be a first round pick?

He wasn’t a first round pick in the ESPN mock—the Rams trade up to 33 for Penix in this scenario—but trading up for a player with the first pick of round two is essentially the same value as a late first round pick. Some believe Penix could be in consideration in the first round and some even believe he’s being considered by the Commanders and Patriots at two and three.

This is because Washington included Penix with Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and J.J. McCarthy in their group top-30 visits with quarterbacks:

Of course, this could also imply that the Commanders are considering not drafting a quarterback at two and instead picking a quarterback with one of their two early second round picks. This would shock the world and screw up every mock draft: The Commanders pick Marvin Harrison Jr. at 2 and then trade up for Penix from pick 36.

Maybe OC Kliff Kingsbury would rather pair Terry McLaurin (and/or Jahan Dotson) with a top-tier receiver before getting a quarterback?

The Penix stock is all over the place.

In early January when Washington was playing for a national title against Michigan, Penix had an average mock draft position of sixth overall. That number sank and sank and he’s currently at 31 despite impressive athletic testing at Washington’s pro day. His injury history is crucial to his evaluation, but Penix hasn’t missed any games since arriving with the Huskies in 2022 after transferring from Indiana.

Others will point out that Penix had some flashes of brilliance at Indiana, but has never been successful without Kalen DeBoer—his OC for a time at Indiana and his head coach at Washington. He also had an elite receiver, Rome Odunze, as well as two other receivers expected to go on day two in Jay’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan, plus a first round left tackle in Troy Fautanu. Running back Dillon Johnson could also be an early-ish pick in 2025.

The left-hander usually gets mocked as early as 11 to the Vikings or as late as the second round. Is his situation similar to Will Levis, who had top-5 buzz but ultimately went 33rd to the Titans? Or Malik Willis, who had top-10 buzz but didn’t go until pick 86 to the…Titans? Or is it more like Daniel Jones, a player who not many expected to go top-10 but some did and then he did?

Penix has interesting competition for that QB4 spot with J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix. Almost everyone has universally put McCarthy there, if not QB2, and that seems just as rich as believing Penix will go top-15. It’s more than injuries: Penix has holes and flaws in his game that aren’t easily correctable. Alex Rollins notes that his mechanics and footwork give Penix inconsistency and struggles when layering the ball between linebackers, safeties, and corners. “Penix doesn’t have a second pitch.”

And though Penix runs a fast 40, running and scrambling haven’t been a part of his game in college and presumably an NFL team won’t want it to be either given his two ACL surgeries in college.

So will Michael Penix go in the first round? Though I believe Penix could be the fourth-best QB in this class, if not higher, he won’t be one of the first four quarterbacks selected. As teams fill their QB needs early, it will become less and less likely that Penix gets picked by a first round team over prospects at other positions who have a lot less uncertainty. Five QBs in the first round is a HUGE number, even when we’re being sold on it as a certainty. It’s not.

Therefore, I would bet that Penix either goes with one of the last two picks of the first round by a team trading up or is an early second round pick.