Will Caleb Williams break the Bears’ rookie passing records?

The Chicago Bears have several low bars to become the best statistical passer in team history, so can Caleb Williams eclipse the rookie records?

The Chicago Bears‘ passing records are comically low, yet most have stood for decades.

The freshest record is Mitch Trubisky’s rookie passing yards mark of 2,193, which he set in 2017, but the rookie passing touchdown mark of 11 was set 82 years ago by Charlie O’Rourke.

The last rookie QB to start week one in Chicago was fourth-round pick Kyle Orton in 2005, and that was only due to an injury to Rex Grossman. There won’t be a veteran bridge like Andy Dalton, Mike Glennon, or Kordell Stewart standing in the way in 2024.

Caleb Williams is the most talented quarterback prospect the Bears have ever drafted, and he will run onto the field in week one as the unquestioned starter with his sights set on greatness.

Erik Kramer’s 1995 season is the greatest all-time in Chicago history, with 3,838 passing yards and 29 TD passes. Yes, the Bears are the only franchise to have never had a 4,000-yard or 30-touchdown passer.

Williams is goal-orientated, so he likely knows all of Chicago’s passing marks and expects to cross them off his list, but his first targets are Trubisky and O’Rourke.

I posed this question to our team.

Will Caleb Williams break the Bears rookie records of 2,193 passing yards and 11 passing touchdowns?

And here’s what we had to say.

Lester A. Wiltfong Jr.: Yes.

ECD: I fully expect Caleb Williams to absolutely shatter both of those records. Shoot, he’s set up to break the Bears’ single-season records set by Erik Kramer. Anything less than that would be a disappointment, considering how amazing his supporting cast will be on day one.

Sam Householder: Expectations are sky-high, and when that happens, the jaded fan in me comes out. Unfortunately, I have watched so many sky-high expectations come crashing down so many times over the last 25 years. However, this is so, so different. As others have pointed out, there’s no barrier to Williams starting like there was for Fields and Trubisky. And the averages are so silly low that even if he misses seven games, he’d only need 220 yards per game to eek past it. Last season, 18 QBs averaged more than 220 yards per game.

Additionally, Aidan O’Connell (10 starts) would’ve broken the Bears’ record with his numbers a season ago. Heck, Russell Wilson averaged 204.7 YPG in 15 starts and surpassed the Bears’ rookie number. Other QBs with more than 2,193 yards in 2023: Fields, Zach Wilson, Kirk Cousins (8 games), Josh Dobbs and Desmond Ridder. So yeah, it will ideally be an easy record to shatter.

Josh Sunderbruch: If he doesn’t, it’s a bad sign. I mean, Bryce Young had more yards and just as many touchdowns, so yeah… he’d better.

Aaron Leming: Lord, I hope so. Could you imagine if he doesn’t? It means one of two things: either he got hurt and missed quite a bit of time, or he was that bad.

Maybe something develops in training camp that I’m not anticipating, but Williams should be named the starting quarterback out of the gate. That gives him a solid chance to play all 17 games. He’s never missed a game in college, which makes me believe he can stay healthy in the NFL. Assuming he starts all 17 games, he would need to average just 130 yards passing and throw touchdowns in 71% of those games to break the record. In other words, he should crush the record by Week 11 if he’s averaging 200 yards passing and close to a touchdown per game. It’s still amazing to me how low the bar is set for Williams to break damn near every franchise record. Health plays a big part here, but assuming he stays on the field, it’s hard to imagine he doesn’t eclipse this mark just over halfway through the season.

Taylor Doll: Lord, I hope so. Lol. If not, then with this group of offensive playmakers, we may have a problem.

Mason West: Yes. Easily. The most recent Bears rookies didn’t start the whole season. To break these records, Caleb only needs to average 129 passing yards and .65 passing TDs per game. Caleb will be great, but this is more a statement on the ineptitude of the Bears’ handling, and, let’s be honest, the skill of previous QBs. For Justin it was the coaching/front office/weapons. For Mitch, skill and weapons. Caleb may break the records by the bye week, and we don’t even know when that will be.

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