Why the Detroit Lions had the most valuable 2024 NFL Draft class

The accolades for Brad Holmes continues as the Detroit Lions 2024 draft class was considered “most valuable” by several outlets.

Following the conclusion of the 2024 NFL draft, the football community is scrambling to determine which teams had the most success. Traditionally, that means analysts assigning grades to players and the entire draft classes. But like everything related to the NFL Draft, for every opinion submitted, there is an analytical component that can also be considered.

From a grades perspective, the Detroit Lions 2024 draft class earned top-10 scores from most draft evaluators. But from an analytics perspective, they performed even better, as multiple “value” models all point to the Lions getting the most of their selections and determined that Detroit came away with the “most valuable” draft class in this cycle.

For this exercise, we will compare where each of the Lions players were drafted versus where they rank on Wide Left’s Arif Hasan’s top 300 consensus board, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler’s top 300 draft board, NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah’s top 150 draft board, ESPN’s Jordan Reid’s top 400 draft board, and PFF’s top 300 draft board. Then, we will look at the Lions draft class as a whole and see how they performed against the rest of the NFL as well.

Round 1, Pick 24: CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama

Hasan consensus board: 12
Brugler: 10
Jeremiah: 9
Reid: 11
PFF: 14

Right from the jump, the Lions are getting great value on the Arnold selection. The heavy run on offensive players created a unique situation, where the Lions had a chance to land one of the top defenders in the class, which is why they traded up to take advantage.

According to the consensus board, the Lions got the No. 12 player for pick No. 24, which was the biggest value pick of the first round.

Round 2, Pick 61: CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri

Hasan consensus board: 40
Brugler: 49
Jeremiah: 32
Reid: 74
PFF: 46

Rakestraw was considered a first-round prospect by most analysts heading into the NFL Combine, but a groin injury limited his performance and dropped his stock. Even with the declining projected value, Rakestraw still showed up in the top 50 on most draft boards and was No. 40 on the consensus board.

With the Lions maintaining their “best-player-available” approach, they snagged Rakestraw at pick No. 61, a solid 21 picks later than anticipated, thus making his selection the second-highest-value pick of the second round.

Round 4, Pick 126: OT Giovanni Manu, British Columbia

Hasan consensus board: NR
Brugler: 298
Jeremiah: NR
Reid: 262
PFF: NR

After creating tremendous value over the first two days of the draft, Lions general manager Brad Holmes went with his gut—something he has earned the right to do after his previous three drafts—and took a gamble on a fast-rising player who was not known by many teams or analysts until very late in the evaluation process.

In fact, Manu’s rise was so late in the process that the majority of draft analysts did not have a chance to scout him ahead of time and therefore did not rank him on their draft boards. With limited information, but with obvious upside, a couple of analysts snuck him into the bottom of their boards, predicting that a team would take a chance on his skills.

“We were so blown away just (by) his makeup, his character, the way he’s wired and he’s got a lot of upside,” Holmes said following the draft. “It’s not a whole lot about right now with him, a lot like—you know we talked about Brodric Martin last year. This is more of a down-the-road future deal, but the upside is enormous.”

The Brodric Martin comparison is worth noting here, as the Lions moved up in the 2023 draft to grab Martin at the bottom of the third round knowing he probably wouldn’t play much as a rookie—the same could be said for Hendon Hooker as well. Essentially, there’s a precedence here that Holmes has previously set and falls right in line with his approach.

This will be the biggest “reach” of the draft for the Lions, but one that could pay off if Manu reaches the potential the Lions believe he can.

Round 4, Pick 132: RB/S Sione Vaki, Utah

Hasan consensus board: 151
Brugler: 204
Jeremiah: 149
Reid: 209
PFF: 124

Vaki was also considered a reach for Holmes, as he was selected 19 picks before his consensus board ranking. Vaki was a player with another unusual situation heading into the draft, as he has an appealing upside, but it was unclear how teams planned on using him. Vaki played safety for the majority of his career at Utah, but when called upon to help at running back, his upside grew even further.

Some saw Vaki as a “tweener” player without a true position, while the Lions saw him as a player with massive positional range and a mentality that fit their organization to a tee. A player they simply could not leave the draft without acquiring.

“Going to bed last night, going to bed I was like, ‘We’re not trading into fourth. We’re just going to sit back and wait,’” Holmes said of Manu and Vaki. “But when I woke up, that’s when I was like, ‘Man, it’s those two guys that if they don’t make it, those are going to be some gut punches.’”

Bottom line, it may be perceived as a minor reach on the consensus board, but it was worth the gamble for Holmes.

After securing his diamonds in the rough with Manu and Vaki, Holmes went to work with his remaining selections to find value.

Round 6, Pick 189: DT Mekhi Wingo, LSU

Hasan consensus board: 109
Brugler: 95
Jeremiah: 116
Reid: 90
PFF: 131

The NFL is a “traits” league, and teams will often draft players with unique skills and high upside, allowing others to slide down the draft boards—Holmes did this when securing Manu. That will often lead to players with high level of production sliding down draft boards, where general managers will look smart for stopping his slide.

LSU had three defensive tackles drafted in this cycle, with Maason Smith (pick No. 48) and Jordan Jefferson (pick No. 116) coming off the board before Wingo. Yet, it was Wingo who was a full-time starter on their defensive line, was a team captain, and wore the celebrated No. 18 jersey at LSU, an honor given to the team’s biggest leader on and off the field.

So why did Wingo drop? It’s very likely due to him being undersized (6-foot, 284 pounds) for the interior defensive line position and not being a system fit for certain teams’ schemes. Yet, his production was so good at LSU that he was ranked just outside the top 100 on the consensus board, and the Lions once again took advantage—trading up and selecting him 80 picks later than he was projected.

Round 6, Pick 210: G Christian Mahogany, Boston College

Hasan consensus board: 93
Brugler: 99
Jeremiah: NR
Reid: 126
PFF: 106

With one pick remaining in the draft, the Lions used it to grab another player at tremendous value. Mahogany was considered a late-third or early-fourth rounder on most draft boards, but the Lions secured his services in the sixth round, 117 picks after expectations.

“I was shocked,” Holmes said of Mahogany being available. “I didn’t think he would still be there at that point. I can’t really go into details. I can probably point out a thing here or there that may have been a reason—that we’ll keep internally—but there are other players that I probably would have had a lot more questions on that went (earlier in the draft).”

From a net value perspective, Mahogany was the second biggest net value pick of the Lions’ draft class, something Wide Left’s Arif Hasan pointed to with his analysis when I reached out to him to discuss the value of the Lions’ entire draft class.

Entire class value ranking

Every year, Hasan uses his consensus board to evaluate the draft—which you can find on his substack Wide Left—and uses his learned history to add context to what value means. With this analysis, Hasan assigns proper value to selections instead of just using raw numbers. For example, in the chart below, you can see that while Arnold was only selected 12 picks later than his projected draft slot, yet those draft slots carry more value and therefore translate into more “net value.”

When examining all 32 teams’ net value scores, Hasan determined that the Lions were the highest ranked team with adding value through the draft.

“It looks like the Lions were playing with homefield advantage,” Hasan wrote. “When eliminating their international selection, they only made one negative selection against the board—safety/running back Sioni Vaki, who was close to being considered an even pick. He was evaluated and scored as a safety, because that’s how many of the analysts evaluated him, but he would be a fairly significant negative had he been scored as a running back. Either way, the Lions would remain at the top.”

But Hasan is not alone in ranking the Lions entire draft class as the top of this year’s cycle.

Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis also placed the Lions with a No. 1 class ranking.

“The Lions had the NFL’s best draft based on value, receiving substantial value in four of their six picks. Both SEC cornerbacks they selected were values based on when they took them, and they closed out the draft in the sixth round by drafting two players at pick 189 or later who were expected to go 93 and 109. The Lions traded up before making five of the six picks, but they knew value when they saw it and pounced. Detroit landed the best total value of any team in the draft this year.”

This trend continued with Benjamin Robinson of Grinding the Mocks (who worked at Football Outsiders—the previous home of DVOA—before its collapse), who also assigned the Lions the top spot.

In the end, Holmes does what he does every year: Finds players who fit the Lions approach and aggressively targets them at value. And for the fourth year in a row, it sure looks like Holmes has knocked another draft out of the park.