Chicago’s offensive rebuild is going well, but the harsh reality is that the job is still incomplete.
At the moment, Chicago’s wide receiver room looks solid. Keenan Allen and DJ Moore provide an excellent pair of targets, and they might combine for 20 targets a game if Allen stays true to form and Moore has a slightly elevated usage rate compared to their last couple of years. Sticking with the same averages, Kmet and Everett should be good for the 8 targets per game that would represent the peak TE usage rate under Shane Waldron’s offenses with the Seattle Seahawks. Likewise, D’Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert should be able to manage the 5 receiving targets per game asked of running backs in the system. Throw in two targets per game for Tyler Scott and/or Velus Jones, which might be too many, and the team is at 35 targets per game.
Wow. That’s an average modern offense!
But what about the five games per season that Keenan Allen would miss if he stays true to form over the last two seasons, there, as well? Well, somebody else would need to pick up those 50 targets, obviously. What if Chicago were to have an above-average passing offense and aim for 37 targets per game? Well, now there would need to be someone to pick up another 35 targets, and there’s a void of 85 targets in the season. Add in that Keenan Allen’s contract expires after 2024, and Chicago probably needs a receiver in the draft.
Fortunately, this is supposedly a deep receiver draft. That’s true, up to a point. However, this is a very lopsided draft. There’s far more talent on offense than on defense, especially at wide receiver and offensive tackle. However, that does not mean that there will be talented prospects at wide receiver there for Chicago if they wait until Pick #75. The reason is that while the offensive talent is deep, the defensive talent is shallow. That means that most teams likely will be drafting offense before defense. Here’s the situation Chicago faces.
The First-rounders
Here are the players who are considered to be clear first-round talents by a majority of evaluators. If some team doesn’t grab one of them before Thursday night is over, it would be a surprise:
- Marvin Harrison, jr
- Malik Nabers
- Rome Odunze
- Brian Thomas
- Adonai Mitchell
A few of these players might be available at #9, but they’ll be gone before Friday morning unless something goes wrong.
The Other Top 50
These are the wide receivers who by consensus are still placed in the Top 50 of the eligible draft candidates. There’s some individual disagreements here or there, but these are well-regarded players who would almost certainly be gone by the end of the second round (i.e. 64 picks in) if even half of the available GMs stick to the “best player available” mentality that is espoused so often.
- Xavier Worthy
- Ladd McConkey
- Keon Coleman
- Xavier Legette
- Troy Franklin
- Ricky Pearsall
- Roman Wilson
In order for Chicago to pick up one of these players, they would probably need a second-round pick. That’s the pick that was spent on defense in the form of Montez Sweat. Poles could leverage the extra second-rounder from 2025 and pick #75 in order to get to #50, more or less, which would likely be enough to let them pick up one of these players if he drops a bit from expected value–which will almost certainly happen for one of them. That assumes, of course, that a team is willing to let Chicago trade up and that the Bears are comfortable essentially giving up a premium pick for the opportunity. Otherwise, there’s a high degree of likelihood that these players are gone before Chicago can take them.
Who’s left?
There are still a couple of promising names available. However, hoping that they will last until #75 is a stretch. Malachi Corley (#58) and Ja’Lynn Polk (#62) might very well have their names called in Round Two, not Round Three. If not, there’s still another ten picks before Chicago drafts at #75. Weirdly, because of how the draft breaks from this point forward, taking one of the remaining wide receivers in the third round might be considered a reach, not a value pick. Here’s who will probably be left:
- Devontez Walker
- Jermain Burton
- Jalen McMillan
- Javon Baker
- Malik Washington
- Brendan Rice
- Johnny Wilson
- Jamari Thrash
After those players, the team is essentially looking for the 2024 version of Tyler Scott or Dazz Newsome. In fact, a number of those players probably are the 2024 version of Tyler Scott or Dazz Newsome.
Lingering Questions
During any down time for Keenan Allen, would Javon Baker or Jermain Burton be able to step up and make seven or eight catches? Is Tyler Scott going to step up in 2024 and pick up the 80 or 90 yards per game that would be missing? In 2025, if Allen and Poles can’t or don’t want to come to an agreement, is Brendan Rice going to be DJ’s wingman?
Good will aside, most of the players who will be left if Chicago waits until it’s third-round pick are going to be speculative picks and projects. Ryan Poles should probably finish the job he started and fill in a complete receiver corps for the Bears. It will mean skipping on a defensive prospect in a weak defensive draft, but it could also mean giving Chicago the chance to have an elite offense for the first time in the modern era.
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