Why a Vikings Trade into the Top Five Seems Less Likely

Potential trade partners are demanding huge premiums to move into the top five

It’s two days before the NFL Draft, and news and speculation continues to fast and furious. Amidst all that, there is some convergence of information on how things stand with potential Vikings trade partners holding the top five draft picks. Let’s take a closer look.

#1: Chicago Bears

It’s common knowledge at this point that the Bears are planning to draft Caleb Williams with the first pick of the draft and are not trading it. The implied probability from the -20000 odds of this happening is 99.5%.

#2: Washington Commanders

Commanders’ GM Adam Peters said last week that he didn’t see a scenario where the Commanders traded down, and reports out today indicate that the Commanders are now telling teams that call with trade inquiries that they will not be moving off the pick.

After some volatility over the weekend in the odds markets, Jayden Daniels has re-emerged as the clear favorite to be selected by the Commanders at #2, with an implied probability of 80% (-400).

#3: New England Patriots

I wrote yesterday that multiple sources indicated the Patriots were unlikely to move off their pick, although they continue to listen to trade offers. Today more color on the Patriots situation have emerged. The Patriots say they haven’t received a “serious” offer for their #3 pick and that the offers they have received are “laughable” and not close to getting the Patriots to trade down but are still waiting for a serious offer. Another source said they weren’t sure a serious offer would materialize, which would need to be an “unprecedented package” for the Patriots to trade down. For the Vikings, that implies an offer well north of three first-round picks.

Charley Waters with the Pioneer Press reported yesterday that he thinks the Vikings are reluctant to part ways with their 2025 first-round pick, which would be required to trade up with the Patriots. That suggests a deal may not materialize for the Vikings to trade up, unless one side caves to the other at some point up to when the Patriots are on the clock.

As it stands now, Drake Maye has a 75% implied probability (-300) of being drafted at #3 (Maye has no odds market for which team will draft him).

Albert Breer has said he believes the Vikings like multiple quarterbacks which may limit their willingness to pay a huge premium to trade up to #3 to draft Maye.

However, StarTribune reporter Ben Goessling said today that he continues to think the Vikings will pay whatever it takes to trade up to draft Maye, and later that four first-round picks seems like a lot, but if they really love the quarterback and think he can bring them a Lombardi trophy, nobody will quibble anymore about the draft picks. I’m not sure a team has ever paid four first-round draft picks to move up in an NFL draft, but we’ll have to wait and see if Goessling is right.

#4: Arizona Cardinals

If the Vikings don’t trade up with the Patriots and Drake Maye is drafted at #3, that would leave JJ McCarthy available at #4.

Cardinals’ GM Monti Ossenfort has said he’s willing to trade down from #4, and Matt Miller reported that he’s looking for a “Trey Lance package” to do so- presumably with the Vikings. That would be three first-round picks and change.

Unclear if Ossenfort would come off that price tag to move down once Arizona is on the clock- he has said he won’t agree to any deal until they’re on the clock to maximize his leverage- but moving down to #11 with the Vikings would mean foregoing the three top All-Pro potential receivers in this draft in Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabors, and Rome Odunze. So between that and wanting to exact a ‘quarterback tax’ on a team trading up with them will likely keep the price high for the Vikings to move up here.

From the Vikings side, there may be another perspective. Charles Robinson with Yahoo! Sports reports this:

A very well-connected league source told Yahoo Sports they firmly believe that if the Patriots take Maye, the Vikings are comfortable standing down in trade talks and using one of their two first-round picks — either No. 11 or No. 23 — to select Oregon quarterback Bo Nix. It’s worth noting here that Nix had a private workout for the Vikings earlier this month.

That the Vikings may place a different value on trading up for McCarthy goes to how they value each quarterback on their board. It may well be that they have a higher value on a quarterback like Jayden Daniels and/or Drake Maye, but McCarthy is much closer in value to Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr., so it’s not worth the extra draft capital for them to trade up for a negligibly better quarterback on their board. We also don’t know the order of preference for quarterbacks on the Vikings’ draft board, but based on this and other reporting, it’s reasonable to believe that Daniels and/or Maye are in a tier above McCarthy/Nix/Penix, which is roughly in line with the consensus view of these quarterbacks. It could be different, however.

#5: Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are the next potential trade-up partner for the Vikings, if the Vikings are still looking to trade up for McCarthy and he’s still on the board here.

The Chargers, like the Cardinals and Patriots, have been clear they are not seeking a fair trade to move down. They want more than what’s fair. It’s unclear how much more than what’s fair would induce them to trade down, but presumably that would be at least #11 and #23 and change. The Jimmy Johnson chart (which overvalues top picks) says a mid-second-round pick is a fair trade. The Rich Hill chart suggests a lower mid-second-round pick is a fair trade.

The Chargers parted ways with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen during the off-season, so getting a top wide receiver for Justin Herbert has to be a big priority- even for Jim Harbaugh. So given that moving down to #11 would take them out of range for the top three, it’s understandable the Chargers would want a premium to trade down.

The rumor is that the Chargers would take a tackle like JC Latham at #11 and a receiver like Brian Thomas Jr. at #23 if they moved down. But the question is whether the Vikings value McCarthy enough over Penix or Nix to part with #23 or more to trade up here. The other consideration is whether they think the Giants would draft McCarthy at #6. The odds have the Giants taking either Malik Nabors (+150) or Rome Odunze (+250) ahead or JJ McCarthy (+500).

#6: New York Giants

If the Giants don’t go quarterback here, there is also a chance that they could trade down. It’s another situation where one of the top three wide receivers is a need, but the Giants have other needs as well, which could include tight end if Darren Waller retires, along with cornerback and offensive line.

The word is that the Giants like Maye more than McCarthy, and whether they like McCarthy enough to take him here is more of a question. My guess is one of the top wide receivers is higher on their board than McCarthy, and they go that way and give Daniel Jones a weapon to work with and hopefully get his career on track.

This is a point, however, where a team like the Broncos or Raiders could attempt to trade up. The Broncos are reportedly high on McCarthy but have been exploring both trades up and down. They just traded for Zach Wilson but could still be in the market for a quarterback. They could be exploring a trade up for McCarthy, or a trade back and then take Bo Nix.

A trade up at this point might still cost the Vikings their 2025 first-round pick, so how much more the Vikings value McCarthy over Nix or Penix is a key component of the decision to move up in this range.

#7: Tennessee Titans

If Joe Alt is available here, it’s doubtful the Titans will move off this pick for a 3rd rounder (which they don’t have) as tackle is their biggest need and Alt is an All-Pro potential left tackle. I doubt the Titans overthink this one.

#8: Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons, who are lucky to retain this pick as the league wasn’t able to wrap-up its investigation into their tampering with Kirk Cousins ahead of the draft, will likely have their pick of the top defensive players in the draft. Most likely they go edge rusher, but if they’re not set on a particular player, they could be a candidate to trade down a few spots and still draft a top edge rusher.

This is where there could be some more serious attempts by the Broncos or Raiders to jump the Vikings if McCarthy is still available.

#9: Chicago Bears

This is another spot where teams looking to jump the Vikings could focus their efforts, as the Bears would likely shutout their division rival Vikings from negotiations. If none of the top three wide receivers are on the board here, the Bears could go edge rusher as well and could still pick between Dallas Turner and Laiatu Latu. Trading down a few spots could still yield them one or the other.

#10: New York Jets

Tight end Brock Bowers is the favorite to be drafted here, followed by a couple offensive linemen. The Jets are in a win-now mode, so if they feel they need the top tight end in Bowers now, it could be tough to move them off this pick.

Bottom Line

By all accounts, the Vikings would need to spend 3+ first-round picks, and likely four, to get the Patriots to move off of their #3 pick. If Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has a walkaway price here, as he talked about in his last press conference, it’s likely below that. So far the word from the Patriots’ side is that they’ve received no serious offers to-date, and there have been plenty of reports of the Vikings being in contact with the Patriots going back months. Things can change, but at this point it doesn’t seem likely that the Vikings and Patriots will bridge the gap that exists between them to get a deal done.

By the same token, it could still cost a hefty premium for the Vikings to move up to #4 or #5, which presumably would be for JJ McCarthy, and its unclear if the Vikings value him well enough above Penix or Nix to spend another first-round pick or more to trade up for him.

That price goes down if McCarthy slips into the last part of the top ten, but they may have some bidding competition at that point too that could raise the price. The Vikings have likely canvassed every team in front of them to gauge their willingness to trade down and get a rough idea of their asking price, but whether the Vikings are willing to spend more draft capital to draft McCarthy will depend on how much more they value him over Nix and Penix and a top defensive player they could get with their two first-round picks. The other consideration is how aggressive the Broncos or Raiders or some other team is willing to be to move ahead of the Vikings for McCarthy. The Broncos don’t have a second-round pick but could offer their third-round pick and change to the Falcons or Bears or perhaps even the Jets to jump the Vikings for McCarthy if he makes it past the Giants at #6.

If the Vikings don’t land Maye or McCarthy, the next consideration is if Nix is their preferred option between Penix and Nix, is will he be there at #23 for them or not. Presumably if the Vikings didn’t draft McCarthy it would be because the Broncos jumped them, which would leave the Raiders and perhaps the Seahawks and Rams as potential teams that could take a quarterback in the first round. Unlikely, but possible. The Raiders appear to favor Michael Penix, but are probably hoping to get him in the second round, as are the Seahawks potentially. The Rams have an aging Matthew Stafford but it is unclear how motivated they are to draft for the future here rather than address offensive line or defensive needs.

The Broncos are the favorites to draft Bo Nix- which assumes the Vikings draft McCarthy, followed by the Giants (presumably in the second round) and the Vikings on Draftkings.

But if the Vikings don’t draft a quarterback in advance of #11, it could be a bit tricky for them to take a top defensive player like Byron Murphy II at #11, and then hope nobody takes Nix and/or Penix before #23. The over/under on Nix is 32.5, with a bias on the over, so it would be surprising to see him drafted ahead of #23. The over/under on Penix is also 32.5, but with a bias on the under. The over/under on the total number of quarterbacks taken in the first round is 4.5, with a bias toward the over, which suggests one but not both of Nix and Penix will be selected in the first round, in addition to the other four QBs.

It’s also possible that the Vikings, if they don’t trade up in the top ten, could trade a bit with their #11 and/or #23 picks as the opportunity or need presented itself.

But as I’ve said in other pieces on the draft, the media has predicted about 100 of the last 10 first-round draft trades, in large part because teams coming to terms can be more difficult- particularly in the high-profile top ten picks. Such could be the case with the Vikings on Thursday night- but anything can happen.

Stay tuned.

Follow me on X/Twitter @wludford