What can we expect the Chicago Bears to do in Free Agency?

Greg Gabriel has some thoughts on what the Bears could do in free agency.

The negotiating window opens next Monday for the 2024 NFL Free Agency, and last year, the Chicago Bears struck a deal with linebacker T.J. Edwards within the first 30 minutes of that negotiating period. Are we to expect something similar next Monday at 11:00 AM Central time? The answer is I don’t know, and I don’t know because of how things played out last year in free agency.

If we go back a year and look at the names tied to the Bears in the days leading up to free agency, none actually became Chicago Bears. The first name tied to the Bears was tackle Mike McGlinchey, but as we know, he ended up signing with Denver. Yes, the Bears were in on McGlinchey, and by all reports, they were fine with the average money he got, but they walked away from the negotiation when the guaranteed money got much higher than they were willing to pay. It is then that the Bears decided to forgo signing a tackle in free agency and draft one instead. The drafting of Darnell Wright will end up being a much better move.

Another name often linked to the Bears last year was linebacker Bobby Okereke. The Bears never were seriously involved with him and he ended up signing with the Giants.

Two other names seriously tied to the Bears a year ago were defensive tackles, Dre’Mont Jones and Javon Hargrave. Jones looked like the best fit because he could play the 3-Technique position. He is another player the Bears were interested in, but at their price and not the $51M over three years he ended up getting from Seattle. What worked against Hargrave was his age. He was already 30, and Poles hasn’t signed a player that old to a multi-year deal. Hargrave ended up getting a 4-year deal worth better than $20 M a year. That is not the kind of deal Ryan Poles is going to give to a player at that age because the chances are strong that the player may not be here in year three and four of that deal.

We saw what the Bears did, and only one of the players they signed got what we could call a big-ticket contract. That player was linebacker Tremaine Edmunds who got the contract the Bears wanted to give to Roquan Smith earlier. That deal was worth $72M over four years. The TJ Edwards contract was for $19.5M over three years, so in reality, the Bears got two very good linebacker deals done for just a little more than it would have cost to re-sign Smith.

The best deal the Bears did on free agency last year ended up being one of the least expensive deals. Nose tackle Andrew Billings signed a 1-year prove-it deal for just over $2M and played so well that the Bears have already extended him. There is no one on earth who can tell us that Andrew Billing was a target for the Bears, as most Bears fans had never heard of him. In fact, no one had Edwards or Edmunds tied to the Bears. So much for “inside” scoops, they can’t be trusted to be accurate.

All of that being said, I have come to the conclusion not to believe any rumors we see regarding free agent targets. I’m just going to wait and see what happens next Monday.

With Jaylon Johnson getting tagged yesterday and the trade for center guard Ryan Bates happening on Monday night, the Bears have already spent close to $24M. The $19.8M figure that Johnson gets for being tagged will go down when they complete a final contract, but for now, that’s the figure that is on the books.

The trade for Bates may mean the need to sign a center is over. The Bears signed Bates to an offer sheet in 2022 when he was a restricted free agent, and the Bills matched the offer. Bates stayed on the Bears’ radar, and with the Bills currently being in Cap Hell, they could no longer afford to keep him. There will be more Buffalo Bills available as they need to shed over $40M in salaries in the next week.

When the Bears originally signed Bates to the offer sheet, it was to play center. When the deal fell through, they went after Lucas Patrick. It will be interesting to see if the Bears try to sign another offensive lineman.

The Bates trade cost the Bears a fifth-round draft pick, so now, barring a trade down, the Bears only have five draft picks remaining in the Draft, with none in the second, sixth, or seventh rounds. You can bet a trade-down will happen, but what pick will be used to make that trade?

What do the Bears need? In my opinion, either in free agency or the Draft, the Bears have to get a quality edge player to play opposite Montez Sweat. That player is not currently on the roster. The two best in free agency are Danielle Hunter, who was with the Vikings, and Jonathan Greenard, who played with Houston last year.

Hunter is going to cost around the same as the Bears gave Sweat, and at 30 years old when the season starts, will Poles break form to do that? The good news is Hunter has been relatively injury-free. He missed a number of games in 2021, but that was for a soft tissue injury, not a knee or shoulder.

Greenard is 27 and on the rise. He is one of the hot names in free agency, as he recorded 12.5 sacks last year. He isn’t going to get anywhere near what Hunter gets, but the feeling is his contract could be in the $15M range.

A name Bears fans like Is NY Jet Bryce Huff. Huff has been very productive, but I don’t see him being the type of player Flus is looking for. Flus craves length, and Huff doesn’t have any. His arm length is 31 ¾”, which is much shorter than Flus wants for an edge.

After Edge, the next two most important needs are wide receiver and free safety. Between the Draft and free agency, the Bears have to get at least two wide receivers. The better wide receivers in free agency are going to cost. The best fit for the Bears is the Bills Gabe Davis, who would step in at the X position.

The safety class is strong but will also be expensive, and the Bears only have so much money to spend. The best of the group is Xavier McKinney with the Giants. Many expected the Giants to tag McKinney, so his availability is a surprise.

We can also expect to see three or four relatively inexpensive one-year deals done, but usually, they come after that first wave of signings. Needless to say, next week will be very interesting and give us a fairly good idea of the Bears’ plans.