What are the chances that the Colts actually stay at pick fifteen in the 2024 NFL draft?

The Colts are in the middle of the draft this year. Do we believe that is where they will stay?

Chris Ballard has admitted to loving picks in the draft. He sees the draft as a dart board. The more darts you have, the better chance you have of hitting on a player. The Indianapolis Colts have one pick per round this year, putting them at a total of seven. To me, that doesn’t seem like enough to satisfy Ballard and company. While I don’t doubt for a second that Ballard will swing some sort of deal to trade back in the draft to acquire more picks, my question is whether he will do so in the first round. The history on that is mixed at best.

Going back to the start of Ballard’s tenure, he is all over the board when it comes to the first round. Unlike in free agency, he isn’t afraid to be liberal having used a first round pick twice to obtain a player he thought could improve the roster. He was right in 2020 when he swung a deal with the 49ers to obtain DeForest Buckner. Buckner has come in and been a leader on the team and a force on the field. He has been a true difference maker. Unfortunately, however, Ballard missed when he traded what turned out to be a first round pick for Carson Wentz. Although I have seen worse, Wentz wasn’t the answer at quarterback.

While Ballard loves to trade back, he has only done so twice in the first round. In 2018, he made the masterful deal with the Jets to move back three spots and claim Quenton Nelson and a slew of draft capital. He traded back again in 2019 with the then Redskins. That trade led to Rock Ya Sin being the first player off the board for the Colts. Three years saw the team stay put in 2017 (Malik Hooker), 2021 (Kwity Paye), and most recently in 2023 (Anthony Richardson).

This shows that Ballard doesn’t have a rigid rule when it comes to drafting. If the player the Colts want is there, he will take him. If they feel they can still get their guy later or have multiple players they are comfortable with in a certain range, he will make the move. That flexibility is what is needed when drafting. Be willing and open to gaining more “darts” but don’t pass up a player you believe will make you better to do so.

The draft board dictates so much that a reasonable prediction is hard to make. If there is a run on a particular position that falls outside of what the Colts need and a blue chip player falls, expect them to use the pick. If they are looking at a deep positional class and feel there is enough value later in the first or early second round, I don’t doubt they will make the move. This isn’t a new concept. It just makes sense. As much as I hate staying up late to watch the Colts pick only to have them move back, I have to put my trust in their process and the pre-draft work the team has put in to making the best choice possible. Not every first round pick or move is a homerun, but at least I can rest easy knowing they aren’t afraid to act on what they believe is the best option going forward.