Trying to look at the basics.
You can make yourself go blind looking at all of the additions and subtractions in free agency. That is particularly true when you treat your roster and contracts the way that Nick Caserio and the Houston Texans do. They do more short-term deals than any other team in the league. In order to simplify things, we will look at each position one by one where there has actually been a significant change. Did the Texans upgrade or downgrade the position with the swap?
Naturally, there can’t always be an upgrade. Sometimes a player is just too expensive to replace with a comparable player. Your hope is that you can cover those deficits through quality depth or simply hit on something in the draft. With the draft weeks away we can systematically go through each position one by one and hit on a pretty accurate draft wish list based on what we see here.
The offensive side of the ball is easy. The entire starting offensive line is under contract and coming back. The starting tight end and all of the wide receivers are currently under contract. C.J. Stroud is also obviously coming back. That leaves the running back position as the only place where a significant change has taken place.
Basic Numbers
Devin Singletary 2023: 216 carries, 898 yards, 4 TD30 catches, 193 tards, 0 TD
Devin Singletary Career: 888 carries, 4,649 yards, 175 catches, 1,164 yards, 4 TD
Joe Mixon 2023: 257 carries, 1,039 yards, 9 TD, 52 catches, 376 yards, 3 TD
Joe Mixon Career: 1571 carries, 6,412 yards, 49 TD, 283 catches, 2,139 yards, 13 TD
All analysis is like peeling an onion. The subsequent layers can make you tear up. Mixon has been more productive in both 2023 and his career over the course of the first layer. However, he has nearly twice the carries and twice the receptions. That can be a good or bad thing as you never know how much any player has in the tank. The Giants signed Singletary for three years. The Texans have Mixon for one. So, the level of risk is probably about the same.
Rate statistics and the more complex numbers often tell a different story. However, it is a layer to the onion we have to get through no matter how painful. Mixon is a better volume back, but is he really an improvement on a per carry or per reception/target basis?
Rate Statistics
Singletary 2023: 4.2 YPA, 78.9 catch%, 4.61 YPT, 47.7 RSuccess%, 36.8 PSuccess%
Singletary Career: 4.6 YPA, 81.3 catch%, 4.77 YPT, 48.8 RSuccess%, 45.9 PSuccess%
Mixon 2023: 4.0 YPA, 81.3 catch%, 5.88 YPT, 49.4 RSuccess%, 54.7 PSuccess%
Mixon Career: 4.1 YPA 81.6 catch%, 6.16 YPT, 47.8 RSuccess%, 50.7 PSuccess%
Again, nothing is ever clean. Singletary has been far superior in terms of yards per carry while Mixon has been much more proficient in the passing game. The end result is likely something close to a wash on a net yards per touch basis. That stat includes total targets and not just catches plus carries.
However, to satisfy your curiosity, Mixon has a career 4.46 net yards per touch average. Singletary comes in at 4.66. While that looks better we should remember how each has been used throughout their career. Singletary is not necessarily a change of pace back, but he has lived in passing offenses his whole career. Mixon has been used as a more traditional back throughout that time. Depending on what Bobby Slowik envisions for his offense, that might be the better fit.
Per 15 Games
Singletary: 171 carries, 779 yards, 4 TD, 34 catches, 224 yards, 1 TD
Mixon: 243 carries, 992 yards, 8 TD, 44 catches, 331 yards, 2 TD
Are touchdowns portable? That depends on who you ask. I think there is something about certain players having a knack for getting int he end zone and the Texans were sorely lacking last year at the running back position. I would be remiss to point out that Singletary has played in 95 percent of his possible games. Mixon has played in just under 80 percent of his possible games in his career. So, if we were to remake a typical season for them we would come to the following.
Singletary: 182 carries, 831 yards, 4 TD, 36 catches, 239 yards, 1 TD
Mixon: 227 carries, 925 yards, 7 TD, 41 catches, 316 yards, 2 TD
That makes these guys a lot closer. We simply added one game to Singletary’s ledger and took one game away from Mixon. The contracts ended up being pretty close in terms of dollars per season, but Mixon will make a little more. It would seem at first blush that he’s worth a little more, but it would also appear that while he is better, the Texans can still add to their running back room between now and training camp.
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