Bringing back the popular blind taste test
Sometimes the forces of fate or the universe conspire to make the tough decisions for you. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers took Mike Evans off the board when they paid him $52 million over two years. The development is likely a blessing in disguise. That would have been too much for the Houston Texans to pay, but you know some people would have pressured Nick Caserio to do something.
As we go through this exercise we should note that the trade market and draft are two alternative options. There can be no doubt after watching Robert Woods, Noah Brown, John Metchie, and Xavier Hutchinson fail to nail down the third receiver spot that the Texans will get someone. With Tee Higgins and Mike Evans off the board we will look at four significant free agent targets.
Like with the running backs, we will look at the basic numbers, more complex metrics, and per 15 game numbers. Like with the running backs, we will avoid using names to remove bias. Our numbers will include catch percentage, yards per target, and success rates. The first two are pretty easy. Football reference uses a sliding scale on first through fourth down to determine if the yardage on a catch is a successful one. It is more or less defined as plays that keep the chains moving.
The Basic Numbers
Player A: 487 targets, 336 catches, 3,662 yards, 15 TD
Player B: 299 targets, 163 catches, 2,730 yards, 27 TD
Player C: 485 targets, 317 catches, 3,383 yards, 22 TD
Player D: 516 targets, 324 catches, 4,358 yards, 36 TD
We obviously haven’t included how many games it took these guys to arrive at these numbers. Don’t worry, we are getting there soon enough. It would appear at first blush that Player D is more accomplished than the others. That is certainly true, but we also want to know about success rates, costs, and other considerations.
Without diving too far into numbers we can already do the mental math and know that Player B is more of a deep threat than the other three guys. If the Texans are trying to be a copy of the San Francisco 49ers then it becomes paramount to ask what they are currently missing. If Dalton Schultz is their George Kittle and a potential Saquon Barkley is their Christian McCaffrey then who is their Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk? Who is their Jauan Jennings?
Insanely Detailed Numbers
Player A: 62/66 Games, 93.8%, 69.0 Catch%, 7.5 YPT, 54.2 Success%
Player B: 64/66 Games, 97.0%, 54.5 Catch%, 9.1 YPT, 51.5 Success%
Player C: 91/114 Games, 79.8%, 65.4 Catch%, 7.0 YPT, 48.0 Success%
Player D: 66/82 Games, 80.5%, 62.8 Catch%, 8.4 YPT, 52.9 Success%
Many fans and analysts are getting wise to the difference between usage rates and actual efficiency. A basketball player can average 20 points a game on 25 shots. That’s not horribly efficient. Similarly, give a guy 150 targets and he’ll put up some numbers, but it may not horribly efficient.
Some people are incredibly short-sighted when it comes to adding talent. There’s only one football. C.J. Stroud is not throwing for 6,000 yards. If targets go to one guy then they can’t go elsewhere. So, the totals are not nearly as important as how successful the player is when he gets those opportunities. If we take away Tank Dell and Nico Collins we find that none of the other receivers had a success rate over 52 percent or YPT of 7.9 or higher. So, the question if whether you should invest in any of these guys to get a reliable third target for Stroud.
Per 15 Game Numbers
Player A: 118 targets, 81 catches, 886 yards, 4 TD
Player B: 70 targets, 38 catches, 640 yards, 6 TD
Player C: 80 targets, 52 catches, 558 yards, 4 TD
Player D: 117 targets, 74 catches, 990 yards, 8 TD
Players A and D seem like good bets to be that strong third guy, but they are used to getting targeted like number one receivers. So, will they be able to coexist with Collins and Dell? Would they supplant one of those two or would they take a back seat? Those are hard questions to answer, so B and C might actually be better fits because they are used to being complimentary receivers. All of them have combined for more touchdowns than the entire group of Woods, Brown, Metchie, and Hutchinson produced put together. Will that continue?
The Big Reveal
So, our receivers in order are Michael Pittman Jr., Gabe Davis, Curtis Samuel, and Calvin Ridley. There are obviously other names out there but the fundamental question is the same. Will they be better than what is already here. Unlike other position groups, the Texans are due to lose only Noah Brown, so they could conceivably run it back or build through the draft.
Samuel has also been a threat on the ground with 171 carries in seven seasons. That came with a 55.4 percent success rate which would be north of every running back on the open market. Could he be a poor man’s Deebo Samuel? Anything is possible. Either way, we will find out on Monday who the Texans are targeting and you can count on us to bring you the analysis after the fact.
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