Trench warfare: Breaking down the numbers and determining where the Cowboys need the most help

The Cowboys need to get better in the trenches, but what’s more important… offense or defense?

The Dallas Cowboys are good in the passing game. Whether it’s on offense or defense, this is one of the team’s strengths. Led by NFL MVP candidate Dak Prescott, the Cowboys finished with the third-most passing yards for the year. Defensively, they were in the top five in passing yards allowed thanks to a formidable pass rush led by Micah Parsons and his strong assortment of pass-rushing teammates.

When it comes to the run, it’s a little bit of a different story. On offense, they only averaged 4.1 yards per carry this past season. That is their lowest efficiency on the ground since the year 2006. In seven games this past season they were held under 100 yards rushing and only had two games where they rushed for over 150 yards (compared to eight last year). To put that in perspective, those were the same less-than-100/greater-than-150 totals they had in 2020 when Prescott was lost for the final 11 games of the season. That’s not good.

And we don’t need to remind anyone how bad they can be against the run on defense. Since Mike McCarthy took over the team, the Cowboys’ defense has allowed at least 150 rushing yards in 20 games. That’s 30% of their games. Needless to say, the Cowboys aren’t winning many of those games as they finished with a 5-15 record in those contests. And sure, eight of those 20 came during the atrocious Mike Nolan season, but the bleeding hasn’t stopped since. They’ve allowed over 200 yards rushing two times in each of the last two seasons. And when things start to come unraveled in the playoffs, there’s usually a player like Aaron Jones or C.J. Anderson who has had their way in the running game.

It’s safe to say that the Cowboys need to get better in the running game, whether it’s on offense or defense, but where do they need the most help? With limited draft capital this year, the Cowboys need to use their draft picks wisely. Should they be looking at adding one of the top offensive linemen or getting another big-bodied nose on defense? The team has used a first-round draft pick on a top interior line player in each of the last two drafts with the selections of the Smith brothers (no relation) with Tyler Smith in 2022 and Mazi Smith last season.

Today, we thought we’d take a close look at the performance of both the offensive and defensive line over the past four years and try to determine where the Cowboys need the most help. We will be using win rates provided by ESPN Analytics that are used for pass-blocking/rushing and run-blocking/stopping efficiency as defined as the percentage a player holds or beats their block within a 2.5-second window.

OFFENSE

Before we look at their effectiveness as a unit, let’s take a look at the cast of characters that made up the offensive line over this time. The players listed below are in order of playing time as some key starters were subjected to injury.

Here is how each unit performed during these years in both pass protection and run-blocking win rates.

Looking at their success rate compared to previous years shows an improvement in pass protection.

What can we derive from this data? When it comes to pass-blocking, the thing that jumps out is that protecting Prescott has been a legitimate issue in recent years, but progressed to mediocre this past season. Why was that? Was it because they finally got a healthier version of Tyron Smith this last year compared to the previous three years where he missed a collective total of 33 games? Was the group as a whole just better? Possibly. It’s worth mentioning that with the emergence of Tyler Smith, four of the team’s starting five linemen have now earned Pro Bowl honors. This might be the best collective group they’ve had in recent years.

Their run-blocking rankings look as follows…

For run-blocking, the team has performed a lot better than some of us would’ve guessed. They haven’t been terrible at any point during this four-year window and that includes the terrible 2020 season where they were stricken with all kinds of injuries along the offensive line. Both tackles, Tyron Smith and La’el Collins missed most if not all of the season. Just scroll up and look at the guys they had manning the trenches that year.

They made a nice jump up starting in 2021. What changed? Well, they got a lot healthier for starters, but there were some other changes as well. Connor Williams, who had his share of being pushed around in the trenches, left in free agency. Terence Steele started seeing more action and his strength is in his run-blocking. And again, there is the addition of the powerful Tyler Smith in 2022. It may not be obvious, but the analytics tell us that the Cowboys are good at run blocking.

DEFENSE

Here are the players in the mix on the defensive side of the ball during this time frame. Again, the names are listed in order of snap counts, highest to lowest.

And just like with the offensive line, here’s how the defensive line has performed since 2020 in both pass rush and run-stopping win rates.

Plotting the ranks for the pass rush looks like this…

This data passes the eye test as we already know the Cowboys’ pass rush has developed into one of the best groups in the league. This graph validates such as they’ve finished in the top two in pass rush success in each of the last two seasons. Why have they gotten so much better? In a word, Micah. If you want two words, how about Micah and Quinn? The Cowboys have had good talent and good coaching when it comes to getting after the quarterback.

However, things don’t look as good when it comes to run-stopping…

This graph supports what we already knew and that this team has been bad and remains bad. Between young nose tackles like Trysten Hill, Quinton Bohanna, and now Mazi Smith, they haven’t found a nose tackle who’s been able to come in and make a difference. It’s early still with Smith, so the jury is still out, but this team doesn’t have a good track record at finding good run-stoppers despite throwing some of their top draft resources at the position in recent years.

Looking at the graph, it’s tough to explain why they performed better in 2021 than the other years. Scrolling back up to look at the players didn’t reveal any smoking gun answers. In fact, it got even more confusing when we remember that the team’s best run-stopper, DeMarcus Lawrence, missed over half the season that year. It didn’t make any sense until we came across this:

graphic courtesy of ESPN.com

The graphic above is for the 2020 season when Tarell Basham played for the New York Jets, but the Cowboys were able to sign him to a two-year, $5.5 million deal in the spring of 2021. This might’ve been a more underrated signing than initially thought and explains why his snap counts were so high that year.

WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN?

Recapping how each of these units fared in each category goes like this…

• The DEFENSE pass rush is fantastic
• The OFFENSE run blocking is actually pretty darn good
• The OFFENSE pass protection is middle of the road
• The DEFENSE run-stopping is hurting

The team could use help in the trenches on both sides of the ball, but the defensive tackle position is screaming at them. Honestly, it feels like it’s been screaming at them for a while now. The Cowboys must prioritize improving their interior defensive line. This doesn’t mean they need to panic and do a Mazi Take-two and use their top draft pick on a nose tackle. A more sensible approach would be to target a veteran free agent but spend a little more for someone more likely to step in right away and make a difference versus their typical bargain bin/vet minimum guy.

The offensive line should still be high on the Cowboys’ wish list. Even if he’s re-signed, we all know Tyron Smith might suddenly be unavailable at a moment’s notice. The Cowboys should take action to keep that unit strong, but they must find a way to finally improve their defensive tackle position group.