Thoughts and Insights on the Vikings’ Draft

How well the Vikings navigated the draft and what it means for the season ahead

The 2024 NFL Draft has concluded and now the focus moves to how the Vikings draft class, including 17 undrafted free agents, will work out and fill out the Vikings roster for the coming season.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at how the draft unfolded for the Vikings, and how the players selected may contribute to the team going forward.

The Vikings Draft Started with a Mistake

Just after the draft began, with the Patriots on the clock, the Vikings apparently sweetened their offer of three first-round draft picks plus to trade up for Drake Maye. We have no way of knowing at this stage which quarterbacks will ultimately be successful, and which will not, but any realistic evaluation of Drake Maye does not overlook the fact that he is a project that will take at least a year to develop, with a Justin Herbert-ish ceiling and a Jake Locker floor. There is no way that type of prospect is worth spending three first-round draft picks on. Especially if he sits on the bench next season as expected and Sam Darnold starts, which could easily result in the Vikings’ 2025 first-round draft pick becoming a top ten pick- further increasing the cost of drafting Drake Maye without even having seen him start a game at that point. So, fortunately for the Vikings and the regime of Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell, the Patriots declined their offer and drafted Maye instead.

But the Patriots declining the Vikings offer only began the early first-round drama for the Vikings in their quest to draft a franchise quarterback. With three QBs already off the board, the Giants opted for Malik Nabors rather than JJ McCarthy, bringing a sigh of relief to the Vikings front office and Vikings fans. But then the Falcons at pick #8 took Michael Penix Jr. in the surprise of the draft, leaving just JJ McCarthy and Bo Nix remaining of the top six quarterbacks. The Broncos and Raiders were both thought to be pursuing a quarterback early- and potentially JJ McCarthy as well. But trade up opportunities may have been difficult and expensive at picks #7-#9, as the Titans needed a top tackle and Joe Alt was already off the board, the Falcons secretly wanting Penix, and the Bears keen on Rome Odunze. It would’ve taken a big premium for those teams to trade down, and even then the answer may still have been no.

But Was Followed By a Good Bet for a Franchise Quarterback

The Vikings were able to make a deal with the Jets to trade back only one spot, boxing out any attempts by the Broncos or Raiders to jump them, and securing their quarterback of the future in JJ McCarthy. In doing so, the Vikings traded picks 11, 129 (4th round), and 157 (fifth-round) for picks 10 and 203 (6th round). Difficult to say at this point whether the trade necessary but given the uncertainty and definite possibility of either the Broncos or Raiders attempting to jump the Vikings for McCarthy, the trade was worth to get their guy.

In so doing, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell have made their bet on a franchise quarterback that will play a big role in determining their, and the team’s fortunes over the next few years- and hopefully many more beyond that.

JJ McCarthy and the ‘It’ Factor

JJ McCarthy had yet to turn 21 years old when he won the CFP national championship with the Michigan Wolverines in January. Over his two seasons at Michigan, in which he went 27-1 as a starter, he developed a reputation as a leader and clutch performer, despite having a lesser physical skillset and a less demanding role than some other quarterbacks in this draft class. But his reputation as a winner, which extends to his 36-2 high school record as a starter, and a still developing skillset, led to his rise through the pre-draft process to a first-round prospect, normally reserved for quarterbacks with prototypical physical traits and/or more impressive box score stats.

But while the list of prototypical, big-armed quarterbacks that flamed-out early in their rookie contract is longer than many scouts care to admit, McCarthy brings the rare ‘it factor’ coaches and fans covet. It’s been a long time since the Vikings had a quarterback perceived to have the ‘it factor’ – Brett Favre was the last one and that was over a decade ago and only for one full season late in his career. The Vikings and Kevin O’Connell will now have that type of quarterback, along with an ascending skillset, to harness and develop into a top starter. How long that will take is another question.

Getting McCarthy Ready to Start

Kevin O’Connell said over the weekend that the Vikings have a plan for McCarthy’s development, with milestones to achieve along the way to gauge his readiness to start in the league. O’Connell is not bound by a particular timeline for McCarthy to start, but instead will base his decision on McCarthy’s progress through his development plan.

One gauge of McCarthy’s development will be how O’Connell divides reps between McCarthy and Sam Darnold entering training camp. The Vikings have four quarterbacks on the roster competing for reps, including Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall, so where McCarthy starts on that totem pole will be an interesting sign of how well he is taking to his development program. Additionally, once training camp starts at the end of July, it will be interesting to see if McCarthy is earning first-team reps at that point, and how much playing time he is given in pre-season games.

At some point during this process the coaching staff will be able to gauge his speed of progress through his development program, and then assess whether he’s on pace to start week one or later in the season. O’Connell may well err on the side of caution when it comes to how soon to start McCarthy, to prevent a loss of confidence that comes with starting when not ready.

Doubtlessly there will be bumps along the way once McCarthy starts, but with strong intangibles and an ascending skillset, McCarthy seems like a good bet to emerge as a quality starter early on, with upward potential from there.

And a Nice Move to Get a Top Edge Rusher

The first half of the first-round was all offensive players, so all the defensive players were still available prior to pick #15. But with edge rusher Laiatu Latu and defensive tackle Byron Murphy II the next two picks, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah made a move up to #17 to draft edge rusher Dallas Turner, who was the top edge rusher on the consensus board. The trade netted the Vikings the equivalent of a 4th round pick based on the Jimmy Johnson value chart, so that trade was a positive for the Vikings as well.

Dallas Turner is viewed as an ascending talent but not as developed as Will Anderson Jr., the Alabama product drafted #2 overall last year. But he brings the versatility Brian Flores desires in defensive players, including the ability to move or twist inside and drop in coverage.

The one question I had about the pick was whether Byron Murphy II was higher on the Vikings’ board as a defensive tackle than Turner. Murphy was taken one pick earlier. Given the free agency additions of Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, it would seem the Vikings were okay at edge rusher and more in need of an interior pass rusher.

But Dallas Turner was definitely a Brian Flores pick, and the Vikings moving up to get him at #17 provides some insight into how important he is to Flores’ scheme.

I suspect Turner will begin by rotating with Greenard and Van Ginkel off the edge, both of which were not primary edge rushers at their last stop, and as part of pass-rushing sub-packages that may include three or more edge rushers.

One of the keys to Flores’ blitz packages is creating uncertainty for opposing pass protectors as to which defenders will pass rush and which will not, when a Cover-0 blitz pressure package is presented. To the extent the opposing offense can eliminate players that will drop into coverage (often a defensive tackle), that can help them in their pass protection call and can also help the opposing quarterback identify potential throwing lanes and holes in the coverage pre-snap. But if every defender along the line of scrimmage or in the box is able to cover or rush the passer, that makes pass protection that much more difficult. With Turner able to do both, and rush both off the edge and inside, he is a good fit for Flores’ scheme and has high upside.

Brian Flores the Scout

Before Brian Flores was a coach in New England, he was a scout for four years. That experience is valuable to the Vikings when it comes to drafting defensive players. Vikings’ director of player personnel Ryan Grigson said Flores is very particular in what he’s looking for at each position and isn’t a “fence-sitter” when it comes to his evaluation of players, making the scouting job easier. In addition to the particular traits and skillsets he’s looking for at each position, he’s also looking for players with the ‘want to’ necessary to make the improvements necessary to make it in the league.

Last year, the Vikings had two defensive players become starters in Ivan Pace Jr. and Mekhi Blackmon, even though they were undrafted or picked outside the top 100, and both ranked in the top twelve in overall PFF grade among their draft class. Blackmon was the third-ranked cornerback (the other two were first- or second-round picks), and Pace was the top graded linebacker despite being undrafted.

Jay Ward wasn’t expected to crack the Vikings’ solid starting lineup at safety, and he didn’t, while Jacquelin Roy and Andre Carter II were seen as more development guys that saw more limited reps and success as rookies.

But overall, hitting on two of four essentially Day 3 picks (Blackmon was the last pick of the third round) as rookies is enormously successful- and Roy and Carter may prove to be greater contributors in the future.

This year, with Flores having been a full participant in the process- last year he wasn’t hired until February- could see some more promising picks who contribute early that Flores helped scout and ultimately had a big hand in drafting.

Certainly Dallas Turner is one, but there are other Day 3 picks that could have an outsized impact for the Vikings defense too.

Vikings Select Cornerback Khyree Jackson Early on Day Three

The Vikings picked cornerback Khyree Jackson just six picks later than Mekhi Blackmon was picked last year, although Blackmon was the last of round three while Jackson was an early fourth-round pick.

Kevin O’Connell has said recently that the Vikings are both looking to play more man coverage behind Flores’ blitz packages this year, and also to potentially have Byron Murphy Jr. focus more exclusively as the slot cornerback, which would open up competition for an outside cornerback spot.

Presumably Mekhi Blackmon and Shaquil Griffin will have the inside track to the starting jobs at outside cornerback, but with a good off-season program and training camp, Jackson could challenge for starting reps and possibly overtake one of them for a starting job.

Jackson adds excellent size at 6’4”, 200 pounds, can play press-man coverage, is good in run defense, and matches up well with larger receivers, so he brings a needed skillset to the cornerback room.

One of the main offensive counters to Flores’ blitz packages is quick outside passes, whether tunnel screens or short out routes. The Bucs and Baker Mayfield used these effectively against Flores’ scheme week one last season, and other teams did so intermittently throughout the season. Playing press-man coverage can be an effective solution to that counter, but you need guys who can do so effectively. Additionally, they need to tackle and defend the run well to counter quick pitches or dump-offs to backs when linebackers or safeties who normally help defend those plays are blitzing.

Jackson has good college tape doing all of the above, in addition to blitzing himself, so he looks to be a good fit with the skillset Flores is after in an outside cornerback.

Jackson hasn’t played a lot of college football, with just 14 starts- most coming last season, but he has progressed and really flourished last season at Oregon. He still needs to improve his anticipation and route recognition skills, and not be as grabby as he was in college, but it’s not a huge leap for him to make as he transitions to the league. More time on task and coaching should help him improve in these areas.

LT Walter Rouse a Good Value in the Sixth Round

After a one-round respite, the Vikings were back on the clock in the sixth round and turned to offense and bolstering their offensive line room. Walter Rouse gave up the second fewest quarterback pressures last season at Oklahoma, behind only #5 overall pick Joe Alt. He has good size and excellent length as a tackle, but only an average athlete from an agility standpoint which can limit him at times. Still, he figures to make the roster as a backup tackle given the loss of Oli Udoh. Kwesi said they may look at him at right tackle, though he played left tackle in college, and also may look at him at guard. He’s described as a very smart guy (bio-mechanical engineer grad at Stanford) and an eagle scout that’s played five years of college football so he should be able to have a fairly smooth transition to the league. He most likely is a swing tackle behind David Quessenberry, although they may position him and Quessenberry as the primary for each tackle spot, depending on how Rouse does in training camp. Unclear how well he’ll do if they try him out inside at guard, but his being able to compete for a starting job at left guard would be a significant bonus. His RAS score is higher at guard (9.12) than at tackle (7.87) for what that is worth.

Drafting a Kicker

The Vikings spent another sixth-round pick on a kicker- Will Reichard from Alabama. He holds the NCAA record for most points after five years with the Crimson Tide. He only missed one extra point in the last four years at Alabama and made 87% of his field goals. Over that same period, he went 18/18 (100%) from inside 30 yards, 29/31 (94%) from 30-39 yards, 23/31 (74%) from 40-49 yards, and 10/13 (77%) from over 50 yards.

He’s described as having very consistent mechanics and process, mature, has delivered in a lot of clutch situations in big-time games, with a decent, but not elite leg in terms of maximum distance. I’d be surprised if he didn’t win the kicking competition this summer and the roster spot that goes with it.

Draftniks argue against drafting a kicker, citing stats that undrafted kickers perform just as well on average. But on the other hand, the draft capital invested is next to nothing for a 6th or 7th round pick so who cares? Acquiring a good free agent is more expensive in salary cap and the Vikings spending a draft pick allowed them to choose a consistent performer over four years with a good pedigree at a top program, so why not? Hit rates on 6th and 7th round picks are only about 10% anyway and getting a good kicker with one would be a home run.

And Two 7th Round Linemen with Upside

The Vikings spent their two seventh-round picks on linemen- one offensive and one defensive- adding depth to the trenches.

Micheal Jurgens played six seasons at Wake Forest, five of them at center. However, last season he was moved to left guard where from a PFF grade standpoint, he did much better. Jurgens had been a mid-60s grade center but graded 82.5 overall at (mostly) left guard last season. That included allowing just seven pressures and a 99.0 pass block efficiency score and a 86.4 run blocking grade. Overall, he has some potential to compete at left guard but more likely ends up a backup IOL.

Defensive tackle Levi Drake Rodriguez went to Texas A&M – Commerce and grew up in Georgetown TX, just down the road from Mumford, TX where former Vikings defensive tackle John Randle grew up, and who also attended a Texas A&M D-II offshoot at Kingsville. The reason for the association, besides they both play defensive tackle, is Rodgriguez has that same kind of energy as John Randle. He’s not as undersized as Randle was at 6’2”, 300 pounds, but he definitely has a strong character and work ethic that scouts raved about. It will be interesting to see how he does and if he makes the roster, but taking a flyer on a guy from a small program but with some talent, a strong drive and upside is what seventh-round picks are made for.

Undrafted Free Agents

The UDFA market has been an important one for the Vikings and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has been aggressive in pursuing UDFAs. Some notable ones the Vikings signed this time around:

• OLB Gabriel Murphy, UCLA- Ranked 111th on the consensus board, Murphy is a short-armed but very productive edge rusher that could find a role in Brian Flores’ defense.
• CB Dwight McGlothern, Arkansas- Ranked 189th on the consensus board, McGlothern is an instinctive and talented outside cover cornerback. He has good height but short arms and his instinctive play can lead to big plays- good and bad. He’ll need to become more consistent as a run defender and play with more discipline but certainly has starting level coverage talent.

The Vikings and Brian Flores had a couple defensive UDFAs make the roster last year, and perhaps another couple will this year. We’ll see.

Bottom Line

Draftniks gave the Vikings mostly middling grades for this draft (see below), but I think this draft will give the Vikings two cornerstone players at quarterback and edge rusher, and in that sense would be the best draft ever for the Vikings depending on how much upside their able to realize. I think at least three other guys make the roster and are contributors. Jackson could become a starter in time, which would add even more value to this draft. If the seventh-round guys make the roster and can contribute- and I wouldn’t be surprised if at least one did- that would be an additional bonus. The two undrafted free agents above also have a chance to make the roster at the end of the depth chart if they have a good off-season and training camp and can also contribute on special teams.