The Vikings Need Pass Rushers- Here are Some Options in Free Agency

The deadline to place the franchise tag on NFL players has come and gone, providing a better idea of which players will actually be available in free agency. If anything, more players will become free agents as teams release more players to either get under the salary cap limit by the start of the new league year- and free agency- on March 13th, or to free up additional space for new acquisitions. Those cap casualties could create more opportunities for the Minnesota Vikings to improve their roster over-and-above the current list of free agents.

Currently, the Vikings have about $41 million in salary cap space according to Spotrac, although the ‘available’ cap space is about $8 million less if you factor in the cost of signing draft picks. On the other hand, a Harrison Smith retirement or contract restructuring would result in an additional $11 million in cap space; extending Justin Jefferson could result in $15 million more in cap space this year; and releasing Dean Lowry and Nick Mullens would add nearly $5 million more too. All those moves would bring the Vikings’ available cap space to over $60 million. So they’ve got some money to work with in free agency.

The Need for Pass Rushers

Currently, the Vikings don’t have any legitimate pass rushers on the roster. Danielle Hunter was the only premium pass rusher for the Vikings last season, and he’ll be a free agent next week. So, the Vikings will likely be looking to improve their roster in that area in free agency. Here are some premium, mid-range, and cheap options in free agency to help restock the Vikings’ stable of pass rushers.

PREMIUM OPTIONS

• DT Christian Wilkins. He makes sense because he’s familiar with Brian Flores’ scheme and the Vikings could really use an interior pass rusher and well-rounded defensive tackle. However, while he had 61 pressures including 10 sacks last season- which was a huge improvement over previous years, his pass rush win rate of 8.7% last season ranked a pedestrian 58th among interior defenders. Top defensive tackles have win rates north of 15%. His pass rush productivity of 6.2 (a measure of pressure rate weighting sacks > QB hits > QB hurries) ranked 23rd. He also was the most penalized defensive tackle in the league last season, incurring seven penalties. Overall, Wilkins graded around 70 by PFF in pass rush, run defense, and overall defensive grade. None of those are great metrics for what may well be a $20+ million defensive tackle. Wilkins is 28 years old.

• ED Danielle Hunter. Hunter has been a long-time core defensive player for the Vikings and is coming off his second-best season in terms of pressures and sacks. His pass rush win rate of 15.7% ranked 23rd last season among edge rushers, while his pass productivity of 8.2 ranked 32nd – to some degree because his snap volume relative to pressures was higher, and also because while he was among the sack leaders, a higher percentage of his pressures were hurries compared to the top edge rushers. Hunter is a good pass rusher and also has a well-rounded skillset. But he also turns 30 in October and has some injury history. He did well in Flores’ scheme last year overall, but is there a better scheme fit? How much is he worth at his age? The rumors from near the Vikings’ organization is that Hunter will hit free agency next week, meaning his $14.9 million dead cap will hit the Vikings salary cap as his contract voids on March 13th. While that doesn’t preclude the Vikings extending him later, you’d think they’d want to avoid that if they plan to extend him.

• DT Leonard Williams. Williams had a pass rush win rate and pass rush productivity (PRP) higher than Wilkins last season, at 6.3 and 11.2% respectively. He’s two years older than Wilkins- he’ll turn 30 later this year- but with a market value estimated at $16.7 million, a cheaper premium option than either Wilkins or Hunter.

MID-TIER OPTIONS

• DT Javon Kinlaw. He’s coming off his rookie contract and was a clear disappointment as the 14th overall pick of the 49ers in 2020. Still, he had an 11.3% pass rush win rate and a 5.8 PRP last season and would be an upgrade over Dean Lowry. And with a $5.4 million market value according to Spotrac, he’s an affordable rotational interior pass rusher and still young at 26.

• DT DJ Reader. Reader turns 30 later this year, but has put together a string of good seasons with Cincinnati. Last season he had a 12.9% pass rush win rate, a 6.1 PRP, and was the 14th highest graded interior defender in the league according to PFF. He suffered a torn quad late in the season against the Vikings, which ended his season. He has a $14.9 million market value according to Spotrac, so on the upper range of the mid-tier options.

• ED Chase Young. Another disappointment as the #2 overall pick in 2020, but Young has the traits and had a pass rush win rate of 14.7% last season and a PRP of 7.9, 74 total pressures and 11 sacks. Not too far off of Danielle Hunter’s production last year, but with a $13 million market value according to Spotrac. An alternative to Marcus Davenport.

• ED Marcus Davenport. The Vikings pushed back the void date on Davenport’s contract to March 13th, indicating they may be trying to work out an extension. But his injury history including missing nearly all of last season with an ankle injury is a red flag. He’d have to come in at the low-end of the mid-tier range ($5-$15 million AAV) for the Vikings to continue the experiment with him.

• ED Jadeveon Clowney. Clowney has been operating as a one-year gun-for-hire for several seasons now, and at age 31 may well finish his career that way. But he had his best year with Baltimore last season, with a 16.8% pass rush win rate, 8.8 PRP, 78 pressures and 11 sacks. The Ravens used a lot of more exotic blitzes last season and so Clowney, and Kyle Van Noy below, could transition easily to Brian Flores’ scheme. Clowney has a $7.2 million market value according to Spotrac.

• ED Bryce Huff. Coming off his rookie deal and turning 26 later this year, Huff was the highest graded pass rusher on this list according to PFF. He had a 22.9% pass rush win rate, 12.2 PRP, 67 pressures including 10 sacks on just 334 pass rush snaps. His market value according to Spotrac is $9.2 million. The reason Huff’s market value is lower is because he wasn’t a starter for the Jets, who have a lot of depth at the position. He was also undrafted. But he’s put together two good years, albeit with more limited reps. Unclear how he’d respond to a bigger workload, but Huff could bring a lot of value if he was able to maintain close to his level of production at his market value price tag.

INEXPENSIVE OPTIONS

• ED Kyle Van Noy. He’ll turn 33 later this year, so certainly not a long-term option, but he played in Flores’ defense in Miami and New England and turned in a good season last year with the Ravens. He had 53 pressures including 9 sacks- good for a 14.8% pass rush win rate and a 8.7 PRP on 376 pass rush snaps. He played on a $1.4 million one-year deal last year with the Ravens, so he could play for a similar deal with the Vikings.

• DT Khyiris Tonga. Sounds strange for a guy that seems more like a big run stuffing nose tackle, but Tonga actually had a 15.4% pass rush win rate and a 5.8 PRP last season on 79 pass rush snaps. He wasn’t used much by Flores last season, but maybe he has some talent as a big interior rusher who can push the pocket. Tonga could likely be extended for the veteran minimum and perhaps play a larger role as a rotational interior pass rusher.

• ED DJ Wonnum. Wonnum had a decent season last year for the Vikings before suffering a season-ending torn quad injury. The 8.2% pass rush win rate and a 5.2 PRP he had last season isn’t much for an edge rusher, but Wonnum could play a backup role in a vet minimum extension.

Other Options

As teams jettison more cap casualties, more pass rushers will become available in free agency. The Chargers remain $18 million over the cap and are expected to release either Khalil Mack or Joey Bosa, for instance. These would likely be two more premium options for the Vikings. Za’Darius Smith is an option too. Of course there are also other free agent options not listed here, but the above are some of the better ones.

Bottom Line

The Vikings could acquire a few free agents on this list and be in pretty good shape. Leonard Williams, Bryce Huff, Javon Kinlaw, Chase Young, and Kyle Van Noy for instance. They might also get more from Andre Carter II this season, and perhaps even Jacquelin Roy. But they don’t have to break the bank on any one player, and other than perhaps Danielle Hunter, I’m not sure the other premium options would provide production to match their more expensive price tags.