The Roar’s Super Rugby expert tips and predictions, Round 11: Are the Aussie sides in for an old-fashioned NZ trip to hell?

It has been a long time since the gap between Australian and New Zealand Super Rugby sides has felt as close as it has in 2024.

Victories have been common, the Brumbies are our first proper contender in years, and even the Rebels have more wins than they have losses; meanwhile, with the Crusaders languishing near the bottom albeit starting to stir, the throne lies decidedly bare.

It’s why this week might be the most important in Australian domestic rugby since Bernard Foley sent NSW into raptures nearly a decade ago. Three teams – the Reds, Waratahs and Force – head across the Tasman to face New Zealand foes, and a home final could very easily rest on the outcome.

All are heavy underdogs, and we know it’s the hope that kills you. But do we dare to dream of any of this trio bringing precious points on the flight back home with them?

Christy Doran

Hurricanes, Blues, Moana Pasifika, Crusaders, Chiefs, Brumbies

This is the weekend that we’ll discover if indeed the gap is closing between Australia and New Zealand.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t look good for Australia’s sides as we approach Round 11. But more on that in Monday’s column.

As for the tips, it’ll take something special for the Waratahs to go across the ditch and beat the Hurricanes. The Tahs have a capable backline and a hard-working forward pack, but their injury toll, and therefore lack of depth, was exposed last week against the Chiefs.

The Waratahs just couldn’t sustain the pressure and skill execution they had in the first 20 minutes over the next 60. Now they’re up against a Hurricanes side who will be hungry to respond after dropping their first match of the season.

The Rebels went on a three-match winning streak not long ago and they needed to. After copping a beating to the Crusaders last week, the Blues, who go through teams before they go around them, will be sensing an opportunity to blow through them. 

There are five weeks to run in the regular season, but you get the feeling that whoever wins in Tonga could go on to make the finals. Moana Pasifika will likely benefit from playing in the humidity in Fiji last week. The absence of Ethan de Groot will help, too. Moana, just.

The Reds welcome back Fraser McReight but have lost fly-half Tom Lynagh. That’s a big blow. Lawson Creighton needs to stand up. Crusaders, for mine.

The Chiefs were slow out of the blocks but proved to be far too good for the Tahs last week in Sydney. Now, they’re back home and they’ll be even better. 

Stephen Larkham has made multiple changes, but he’s also welcomed back Nick Frost after he was dropped last week. That’s depth, for you. The two key selections are James Slipper and Allan Alaalatoa. Both are starting. The Brumbies mean business despite movement across the side. 

Nick Wasiliev

Hurricanes, Blues, Moana Pasifika, Crusaders, Chiefs, Brumbies

Sorry folks, it’s a LOT of pain this week! A swathe of Australian teams are heading over to New Zealand, so we’re due for some rough clashes. 

It’s the Hurricanes’ first time back home in a while, and desperate to turn things around after the Brumbies loss, they’ll be up for this clash. The Tahs will make a game of it, but they home side will run away with it in the final 20 minutes.

The Rebels have a horror run home, and it starts right now. It’s time to show what they are made of and nail that finals spot down for good. The Blues should overpower them in the final few minutes based on last week – the Rebels’ bench looked knackered even before they got on the park.

Shoutout to Cam Suafoa – what an incredible journey to get back to the park for the Blues.

I’m going out on a limb here – Moana Pasifika will make history in Tonga. The Highlanders, bar Folau Fakatava, are misfiring. With a finals spot looming, I see the hosts chasing glory now.

Fun fact: the last time the Reds beat the Crusaders was in the 2011 grand final. Even more daunting? The last time they won in Christchurch was way back in 1999!

My point is that now is the best chance they will get in a long time to get their season back on track and exorcise some demons. I was tipping them until I saw that David Havili and Wales legend Leigh Halfpenny are starting for the home side, giving the Crusaders some much-needed experience. I’m going with the men from Canterbury, but if there is a place for a happy Australian story this round, this is it. 

The Chiefs are good; the Force, not so good. A 40-point drubbing is on the cards here.

As a Brumbies fan, I always get real nervous when the Drua come to town. It’s a meeting of different styles and who can enforce theirs the best, and flying Fijians asked a lot of questions of the Brumbies last year.

I still back the men from Canberra to win here, but it should be a closer game than predicted. 

Hamish Bidwell

Hurricanes, Blues, Moana Pasifika, Crusaders, Chiefs, Brumbies

It should be a comfortable 20-point margin for the Hurricanes over the Waratahs to kick off the round.

I’m going to opt for the Blues to down the Rebels on the road, but without huge confidence. In the long run, wins like the Blues’ last one in Brisbane end up standing you in good stead.

It’s great to see a game go to Nuku’alofa. On that basis, it’s Moana Pasifika all the way against the Highlanders.

A tip born of habit, rather than real belief, is the Crusaders downing the Reds at home despite their horror season thus far. Surely the ‘Saders won’t cough this one up too?

The Chiefs taking on the Force is your classic one-horse race. Chiefs by plenty.

I’ll be curious to see how ruthless the Brumbies can be against the Fijian Drua. After last week’s praise, this should be at least a 20-point margin.

Tony Harper

Hurricanes, Blues, Moana Pasifika, Reds, Chiefs, Brumbies

Five of the six games this week feature pretty solid favourites, with only Moana Pasifika hosting the Highlanders seen as a reasonable chance for an upset.

While I agree with the assessment of my fellow experts in giving the Waratahs, Rebels and Force very little hope in inflicting almighty upsets on the Hurricanes, Blues and Chiefs, I’ve got more (maybe misguided?) confidence in the Reds storming fortress Christchurch.

The Queenslanders were superb in losing to the Blues last week, and for all the dominance the ‘Saders enjoyed in pounding the Rebels, that 2-7 record for the season sticks out like a sore thumb. The Reds will be out for revenge, and they’ll never get a better chance to end their quarter-century drought down south.

Round 11	Christy	Nick	Tony	Hamish	The Crowd
Overall	37	36	33	32	39
Last week	5	5	5	5	5
HUR v WAR	HUR	HUR	HUR	HUR	?
REB v BLU	BLU	BLU	BLU	BLU	?
MOA v HIG	MOA	MOA	MOA	MOA	?
CRU v RED	CRU	CRU	RED	CRU	?
CHI v FOR	CHI	CHI	CHI	CHI	?
BRU v FIJ	BRU	BRU	BRU	BRU	?