By James Sutherland on SwimSwam
After the record-setting year that was 2023, we’re gearing up for another exciting year over here at SwimSwam, and part of that is releasing our fourth annual Top 100 list—check out last year’s rankings here.
Similar to 2023, we’ve taken a statistically driven approach reliant primarily upon world rankings and World Championship medals. We’ve also taken into account things such as potential, Olympic medal opportunities, injuries, and versatility. Long course is weighted more than short course, though performance potential in both formats is factored in.
We’ve also moved Russian and Belarusian swimmers way down this list because of their likely absence from the Olympics or either World Championship meet. While that doesn’t preclude them from swimming fast at domestic meets (including whatever Russia comes up with to replace the Olympics), those swims just won’t mean quite as much without the international spotlight.
We’ll be breaking down the top 100 into multiple installments, so keep an eye out as they’re released.
These lists are, by nature, subjective. If you disagree, leave your thoughts/ranks in the comments.
Braden Keith, Sophie Kaufman, Anya Pelshaw and Mark Wild contributed to this report.
Women’s Rankings:
#10: Siobhan Haughey, Hong Kong – Haughey only won one medal, silver in the 100 free, at Worlds last year. But she has double gold medal potential in the 100 and the 200 free in Paris. Mollie O’Callaghan stands in her way, though Haughey feels like she’s just one perfect meet away from being the best swimmer in the world. The 26-year-old Hong Kong native is also the top seed in both the 100 and 200 free heading into Doha, where she could be a double world champion, and is also in position to fight for a medal in the 100 breast. Last year, she ranked #1 in the world in the 100 free (52.02), #4 in the 200 free (1:53.96) and #9 in the 50 free (24.30) in addition to sitting 11th in the 100 breast and 12th in the 400 free. She also has five individual medals, including three gold and back-to-back titles in the 200 free, over the last two Short Course World Championships, so look for Haughey to do some damage at the end of the year in Budapest.
#9: Zhang Yufei, China – The defending Olympic champion in the 200 fly, Zhang appeared as though she was shifting her focus away from the event after scratching it last year at the World Championships, but she came back with an elite 2:05.57 showing at the Asian Games that ranked #4 in the world. She’s probably the Olympic favorite in the 100 fly after winning the world title last year—she was the only swimmer under 56 seconds in 2023—and is in the mix for another medal in the 50 free after picking up bronze in Fukuoka in a blistering 24.15. As for the 200 fly, the 25-year-old still owns history’s third-fastest swim ever from Tokyo (2:03.86), and will need to be in that vicinity to challenge for gold, and maybe back under 2:05 to even medal.
#8: Sarah Sjostrom, Sweden – At 30, Sjostrom just keeps going. She broke the world record in the 50 free last year in 23.61, with no one else on the planet under 24 seconds. She has pared down her event schedule since Tokyo in the lead-up to Paris, following in the footsteps of Sweden’s last legendary swimmer, Therese Alshammar. Sjostrom’s 50 free alone puts her firmly inside the top 10, but she’s also entered in the 50 fly and 100 free in Doha, giving her a chance at winning three more world titles. In Paris, she seems to be past the 100 fly, but was #3 in the world last year in the 100 free (52.24) and will likely aim for the sprint double.
#7: Kate Douglass, USA – It feels like cheating to use KD’s 2:19.30 in the 200 breast from January 13 in these rankings, but her collegiate “can’t miss, every meet” approach is now bleeding over into her long course racing. She is also arguably the United States’ most important relay piece. She has to be the favorite in the 200 IM (though not without serious challengers), and unless Chikunova gets neutral status she might become the favorite in the 200 breast as well. Then it’s just a matter of how many relay medals she can pull in. Could the 50 free, 100 free or 100 fly factor into her event schedule as well? Douglass, 22, also owns six entries in Doha, including the top seed in the 200 breast and 200 IM.
#6: Ariarne Titmus, Australia – A world record gold medal in the 400 free and a near-world record silver medal in the 200 free last year shows that Titmus’ approach since Tokyo that has seen her take some time away from competition hasn’t hurt her results. We saw her pull off some Olympic magic three years ago, and she could realistically defend both the 200 and 400 titles this year if her 1:53.01/3:55.38 performances in Fukuoka were just the appetizer for the Paris main course. The level she’s reached in the 800, going 8:13, is probably underrated given Ledecky’s dominance.
#5: Regan Smith, USA – If you put together the entirety of Smith’s 2023, it was amazing, especially that 200 fly, where she dropped the #4 swim of all-time in 2:03.87. But she didn’t get any individual gold medals at the World Championships. Bob Bowman hasn’t missed much lately, so in Year 2, it’s hard to bet against her. Except for the fact that in her best events, she’s going to run headlong into the top two swimmers on this list (McIntosh and McKeown). If she gets any individual golds at the Olympics, she’s going to earn them big time. Along with being #1 in the 200 fly, Smith was #2 to McKeown in the 100 back (57.68) and 200 back (2:03.80) last year going away. She was also 6th in both the 100 fly and 200 IM.
#4: Katie Ledecky, USA – Ledecky is still automatic in the 800 and the 1500. Can the U.S. get her an 800 free relay title too, recapturing the magic from 2022 Worlds? That remains to be seen in getting past an incredible Australian relay. Ledecky would probably need to win the 400 free, which is well within the realm of reason but she’s surely an underdog, to climb this list.
#3: Mollie O’Callaghan, Australia – After breaking Federica Pellegrini‘s historic world record in the 200 free last year (1:52.85), O’Callaghan has already been 1:54.36 in 2024 at the Queensland Championships. After what we saw from her in 2023 after that pre-Worlds knee injury…imagine how fast she might be at full health. In the 100 free, O’Callaghan has been clutch winning consecutive world titles, and is slated for a good battle with Haughey as both women aim to join the sub-52 club in 2024. The 100 free, 200 free and relays will more than likely be her focus in Paris, but we can’t forget how versatile O’Callaghan is, having ranked 5th in the world in the 100 back (58.42) last year while also being elite in the 50 free and 200 back.
#2: Kaylee McKeown, Australia – The 2023 Swimmer of the Year, McKeown does it in short course and long course, at World Championships and World Cups. The Australian dynamo swept the backstroke events in Fukuoka, setting world records in all three events over the course of the year, and could’ve won the world title in the 200 IM if she hadn’t been disqualified in the semis. In almost any other year, she’d be the clear #1 on this list, but we’re in a golden era of women’s swimming, so here we are.
#1: Summer McIntosh, Canada – The top four could really go in any order and it’s pretty defensible. Among the top two, the conversation comes down to this: Both McIntosh and McKeown are favored to win two gold medals in Paris. Both have multiple world record chances. McIntosh is younger and has a better shot at a fourth individual medal compared to McKeown, depending on event selection. The two of them essentially cancel each other out in the 200 IM, where either could win. McIntosh has a higher ceiling and a clearer path to her first two gold medals (200 fly/400 IM). But McKeown has a better shot at a relay gold medal in the 400 medley. If McKeown wins three golds, given who she has to beat, hers will likely be regarded as being more impressive. It’s a coin toss, but McIntosh’s momentum, age, and ceiling breaks that tie. We also can’t discount McIntosh’s world record in the 400 free last year and the determination she’ll have to right the wrong from Fukuoka when she missed the podium.
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