By James Sutherland on SwimSwam
After the record-setting year that was 2023, we’re gearing up for another exciting year over here at SwimSwam, and part of that is releasing our fourth annual Top 100 list—check out last year’s rankings here.
Similar to 2023, we’ve taken a statistically driven approach reliant primarily upon world rankings and World Championship medals. We’ve also taken into account things such as potential, Olympic medal opportunities, injuries, and versatility. Long course is weighted more than short course, though performance potential in both formats is factored in.
We’ve also moved Russian and Belarusian swimmers way down this list because of their likely absence from the Olympics or either World Championship meet. While that doesn’t preclude them from swimming fast at domestic meets (including whatever Russia comes up with to replace the Olympics), those swims just won’t mean quite as much without the international spotlight.
We’ll be breaking down the top 100 into multiple installments, so keep an eye out as they’re released.
These lists are, by nature, subjective. If you disagree, leave your thoughts/ranks in the comments.
Braden Keith, Sophie Kaufman, Anya Pelshaw and Mark Wild contributed to this report.
Men’s Rankings:
#10: Tom Dean, Great Britain – Dean has established himself as a consistent force among the world’s elite in the 200 free, following up his gold medal performance from the Tokyo Olympics with back-to-back medals at the World Championships in Budapest (bronze) and Fukuoka (silver). His 1:44.32 for silver in 2023 was a tenth off his personal best from 2021 which is a positive sign as he looks to defend his title in Paris. It’s his closing speed that makes him especially dangerous: whether he’s racing the 100 free, 200 free, or the 200 IM (where he found new levels of success last year with a Worlds bronze) Dean’s proven that he can’t be counted out of a race. Ranked #2 in the world in the 200 free, Dean’s 1:56.07 200 IM was good for 5th in 2023.
#9: Carson Foster, USA – There’s some debate about Foster’s placement in the top 10 given he doesn’t have a clear path to an Olympic gold medal this year, but the American is in position to walk away with at least three medals in Paris and perhaps a fourth, not to mention he could become a double world champion in Doha. Foster, who has performed well at the past two World Championships after missing the U.S. Olympic team in 2021, is the clear #2 in the world in the 400 IM, and will be battling it out for a medal in the 200 IM, where he owns a PB of 1:55.71 that should be enough to reach the podium. The 22-year-old has also elevated his game in the 200 fly, clocking 1:53.85 in last year’s World semis to lead the field before placing 6th in the final. He’s also a consistent 1:45 200 freestyler, making him a mainstay on the U.S. 800 free relay, and is a proven performer in the short course pool come SC Worlds at the end of the year.
#8: Pan Zhanle, China – Pan’s ranking is predicated partially on some untapped potential we’re projecting he has in his holster in a few events. The 19-year-old Chinese sprinter became just the fifth swimmer in history, and third in a textile suit, to break 47 seconds in the 100 free at last year’s Asian Games, clocking 46.97 in a swim he wasn’t even satisfied with. That came after he took 4th at the World Championships in 47.43, .01 off the podium. His Asian Games swim put him nearly two-tenths clear of anyone else in the world in 2023, and in the 200 free, he ranked 4th in 1:44.65, though he missed the final at Worlds. We’re banking on Pan being a consistent 1:44 swimmer this year, making him a medal contender in Paris, and he should also have more in the tank in the 50 free (21.92) after he was 22.45 to the feet in his 46.9 performance. On top of his Olympic chances, Pan will also be racing all three distances in Doha.
#7: Ryan Murphy, USA – Murphy has been a mainstay atop the men’s backstroking international scene for the better part of the last decade, and remains a threat to win double gold until proven otherwise. After earning the triple crown in Rio, sweeping the men’s backstroke events while also setting the 100 back world record on the lead-off leg of the victorious U.S. medley relay, Murphy was shut out of individual gold in Tokyo as he took silver in the 200 and bronze in the 100. The two swimmers who topped him there, Evgeny Rylov and Kliment Kolesnikov, won’t be in Paris barring something unforeseen, but Thomas Ceccon and Hubert Kos, who both earned head-to-head wins over Murphy at the last two World Championships, will be. Murphy has been consistent in delivering top-end swims, but will need to be at his best to reclaim his Olympic titles. The likes of Ceccon, Kos, Hunter Armstrong and Xu Jiayu have the ability to swim similar times to Murphy, but haven’t done so as frequently, giving the U.S. veteran the edge in these rankings. In 2023, the 29-year-old ranked #3 in the world in the 100 back (52.02) and #2 in the 200 back (1:54.83).
#6: Maxime Grousset, France – In 2022, Grousset didn’t race the 100 fly in long course. He actually hadn’t done the event since 2018 until last year, when he stunned everyone by becoming the world champion in a time of 50.14, launching himself up to #5 all-time. On top of that, he split a blistering 49.27 swimming fly on France’s medley relay, the second-fastest ever behind only world record holder Caeleb Dressel. Grousset was also in the hunt for individual titles in the 100 free and 50 fly in Fukuoka, claiming a pair of bronzes with a lifetime best of 47.42 in the 100 free final and blasting a 22.72 PB in the 50 fly semis. The 24-year-old, who will turn 25 before Paris, is also an elite 50 freestyler, having won bronze at the 2022 Worlds in 21.57. He opted out of the event in Fukuoka, but with no 50 fly at the Olympics, we’ll likely see him in the 50 free in Paris. Coming a little bit out of nowhere to become world champion in the 100 fly last year gives us an idea that Grousset is someone who has the potential of more improvement in the next few years, making him a clear medal contender across three events and the favorite in the 100 fly.
#5: Bobby Finke, USA – After he was the surprise distance double Olympic champion in 2021, using stunning closing speed to take out the daunting European trio of Gregorio Paltrinieri, Florian Wellbrock and Mykhailo Romanchuk, Finke no longer flies under the radar on the international stage. Despite being a marked man, he managed to win the 800 free world title in 2022, and also stood on the podium in the 1500 free (silver) and again in both events in Fukuoka. In the 1500 free in 2023, he finished .05 back of world champion Ahmed Hafnaoui in a time of 14:31.59, just over half a second shy of the world record that’s been on the books for nearly 12 years. Finke, now 24, has gotten faster each year in the 800 and 1500, and if that remains the case in 2024, he’ll be hard to deny at least one if not two gold medals. The only thing standing in his way is the next crop of distance freestylers, Ahmed Hafnaoui and Sam Short, who emerged with some historically fast times last year. It’s also possible we see Finke tackle the 400 IM internationally this year after he ranked 7th in the world and 3rd among Americans (4:09.55) in 2023.
#4: Sam Short, Australia – Short took a seismic leap forward in 2023, evolving from a 3:44/7:48/14:48 distance freestyler in 2022 into a 3:40/7:37/14:37 swimmer who walked away with three medals in Fukuoka including a world title in the 400 free. After he didn’t even make the Australian team in the event in Budapest, Short won a razor-thin race with reigning Olympic champion Ahmed Hafnaoui in Fukuoka in a time of 3:40.68, ranking him #4 all-time and within six-tenths of the world record. Three nights later, Hafnaoui evened the score in the 800 free, though Short had another highly-ranked swim to take silver in 7:37.76, again moving into #4 all-time. At the end of the World Championships, Short led the 1500 final early before falling off the pace of Hafnaoui and Bobby Finke, winning bronze in another big PB of 14:37.28. Short, now 20, is still so young that more improvement is likely coming, but simply holding his form from last year makes him a real three-event medal threat in Paris, and certainly a co-favorite in the 400 and 800 alongside Hafnaoui.
#3: Ahmed Hafnaoui, Tunisia – Hafnaoui is a bit of an enigma. He hasn’t raced at a lot of major meets since his stunning Olympic gold medal victory in the 400 free in Tokyo, but when he has, he’s performed. He unloaded one of history’s fastest swims at the 2021 SC World Championships in the 1500, and then after he was absent at the 2022 LC Worlds in Budapest, he had one of the greatest World Championship campaigns we’ve seen from a distance freestyler in Fukuoka. The Tunisian native scared the world record in the 1500 free (14:31.54) after moving to #3 all-time with his first world title in the 800 free (7:37.00) and placing a close 2nd to Sam Short in the 400 free by two one-hundredths (3:40.70). Hafnaoui, who turned 21 in December, could win three Olympic titles this year and he might achieve the same feat next week in Doha. That’s assuming he shows up in top form, which some might be questioning given his abrupt departure from Indiana, but there’s no doubt he’s capable of it.
#2: Qin Haiyang, China – Swimming’s biggest revelation of 2023 was the re-emergence of Qin, who reset several World Junior Records in 2017 but went pretty quiet after his initial breakout. That was until last year, when he established himself as the undisputed best breaststroker in the world, becoming the first swimmer to sweep the 50, 100 and 200 of any stroke at the LC World Championships (Kaylee McKeown achieved the same feat in women’s backstroke one night later). Qin has the pure speed in the 50 breast (26.20) and the ability to reel off numerous 57-point swims in the 100 breast (his fastest coming at 57.69, done twice). Once he had established that earlier in the year, and in the prelims and semis in Fukuoka, we weren’t shocked to see him win world titles in the 50 and 100 breast finals. The biggest surprise came in the 200 breast, where he dominated Olympic champion Zac Stubblety-Cook en route to breaking the Australian’s world record in a time of 2:05.48, opening up a big lead through the 150 and then nearly matching Stubblety-Cook’s closing split to win gold by almost a full second. Heading towards Paris, Qin, 24, has proven his consistency in the 100 breast. He went sub-58 six times last year. In the 200 breast, he’s only been sub-2:07 once in that world record swim, so there might be a question of whether or not he can replicate what he did in Fukuoka. But at the same time, he logged numerous 2:07s and did what he needed to do to get wins at the Asian Games (2:07.03), WUGs (2:08.09) and the World Cup circuit (2:07.45/2:08.05/2:07.32). He’s the favorite in both breaststroke events and could become the first swimmer since Kosuke Kitajima—who did it consecutively in 2004 and 2008—to sweep the men’s breast events at the Olympics.
#1: Leon Marchand, France – 1:52 in the 200 fly. 1:54 in the 200 IM. 4:02 in the 400 IM. That was the trifecta of swims we saw from Marchand at the 2023 World Championships, reaching a Phelpsian level of dominance across the three events, and going well above and beyond the GOAT’s longstanding world record in the 400 IM in 4:02.50. In Fukuoka, Marchand shattered Michael Phelps‘ 2008 record of 4:03.84 in the 400 IM to defend his title, took advantage of a Milak-less field in the 200 fly en route to his first world title in the event in a big best of 1:52.43, and then the following night, joined Phelps and world record holder Ryan Lochte in the sub-1:55 club with another successful title defense in the 200 IM (1:54.82). The scary thing about Marchand is that, since arriving at Arizona State, he just keeps getting faster, not to mention the ridiculous amount of potential he has in other events given what we’ve seen him do in the NCAA. Heading to Paris, Marchand is the slam-dunk favorite for gold in the 400 IM, but beyond that, nothing is a lock. Defending Olympic champion Wang Shun joined the sub-1:55 club in the 200 IM at the Asian Games, and then the 200 fly falls during the same session of the 200 breast in Paris. Marchand has expressed his interest in racing the latter on the international stage, having gone a blistering 2:06.59 last June before dropping the event at Worlds due to a scheduling conflict with the 200 IM. It’ll be interesting to see which event the 21-year-old chooses for the Games—the finals are back-to-back on Day 5, so both won’t be an option—which might come down to which has gold more ripe for the taking, and a lot of that comes down to the status of Kristof Milak. But zooming out, Marchand has the best chance of all male swimmers to win three gold medals, landing him the top spot after he was #2 to Milak last year.
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