Sunday Patriots Notes: Combine offers extensive but incomplete look at top QB prospects

Notes and thoughts on the Patriots and the NFL on March 3.

The New England Patriots had a busy week. With the NFL Scouting Combine taking place in Indianapolis, and with the start of the legal tampering period preceding free agency only a little more than a week away, the team is knee-deep in preparing its roster for the 2024 season.

Naturally, this process was front and center throughout the week here on Pats Pulpit. For everything else, let’s clean out the notebook.

Welcome to the latest edition of our Sunday Patriots Notes.

1. The Combine offers an extensive but incomplete look at the top quarterback prospects: The expectation is that the Patriots will start over at the quarterback position this offseason, and selecting a passer in the first round — either at No. 3 or in a different slot following a trade — seems like relatively safe bet. Luckily for the team, several potential franchise-caliber QBs will be available this spring.

The Combine gave the Patriots an opportunity to see all of them in the same place for the first time, and they made sure not to let this opportunity go to waste. The team had meetings with all five first-round or fringe-first-round prospects: Caleb Williams (USC), Drake Maye (North Carolina), Jayden Daniels (LSU), J.J. McCarthy (Michigan), and Bo Nix (Oregon) all sat down with New England’s staff led by head coach Jerod Mayo and director of scouting Eliot Wolf.

Those interviews and the Combine as a whole allowed the Patriots to take a close look at the quarterbacks available this year, and to get a feel for their possible markets come late April’s draft. But while the setting does allow for extensive contact, it also was incomplete when it comes to the cream of this year’s crop.

Williams, Maye and Daniels all opted to forgo the on-field portion of the Combine. Meanwhile, Williams — the betting favorite to be drafted No. 1 this year — also decided to forgo medical checkups in Indianapolis, usually a big part for every Combine invitee.

The Patriots will have other opportunities to go in-depth on those three players over the coming weeks, though. Pro days and Top 30 visits will allow for an even more intimate look than what the Combine could have provided; they will be no less important a piece of the eventual puzzle that is the pre-draft evaluation.

As for the Combine itself, New England still was able to watch some highly-touted QBs perform (almost) in full. Of the five players named above, McCarthy and Nix both threw the ball at Lucas Oil Stadium. Meanwhile, other potential early-round picks Michael Penix Jr. and Spencer Rattler also participated in the on-field portion of the showcase event.

2. Bo Nix had the highest number of “open” throws last season: Quarterback performance is, to a large degree, always also a result of environment; no QB can get the job done without proper support from both teammates and the coaching staff. In that regard, the following table shared by draft analyst Zachary Krueger is noteworthy.

The table shows which quarterbacks have benefitted from the highest number of pass attempts to player deemed “open” during their 2023 season.

While that table by itself is not a reflection of quarterback quality, it does illustrate which players found themselves in generally more favorable situations last year. Caleb Williams and Drake Maye hover around 57 percent openness rate, with J.J. McCarthy and Jayden Daniels both at over 61 percent.

The clear champion, however, is Bo Nix. The Oregon product, who set a new NCAA record by completing 77.4 percent of his throws in 2023, found an open target of 67 percent of plays.

3. Focus on young talent will be foundation of Patriots’ rebuild: New England will look younger both off and on the field in 2024, something that is very much part of the club’s overall plan to get back to relevance after a 4-13 season. As director of scouting Eliot Wolf pointed out this week, the club will focus on giving younger players more opportunities.

“I think there is going to be a little bit more reliance on playing young players,” he said during his Combine media availability. “I think it’s really important to play young players and develop from within.”

Head coach Jerod Mayo echoed those remarks the following day.

“I would also say that you want to play younger players because first of all, they’re cheaper, and then second of all, I would say you want to have a good mix,” he said. “You can’t have all 22-, 23-year-olds out there. You need that 30-year-old that can kind of settle everyone down that has that experience too.”

Excluding recently retired Matthew Slater and James Ferentz, the Patriots currently have 10 players over the age of 30 under contract.

4. How the Patriots plan to sell themselves to free agents: Winning is a potent aphrodisiac the current Patriots do not have at their disposal; coming off their worst season in three decades they need to find other ways to make themselves attractive to the upcoming class of free agents. Naturally, money will be the big deciding factor.

However, there is more to free agency than just monetary concerns. So, what can New England offer besides a league-leading $100-plus million in cap space?

“I would say our pitch to free agents is, this is a new program, and we’re heading in the right direction,” said Eliot Wolf. “It’s a new era. We have leadership with Jerod Mayo that is going to be tremendous. He’s just an unbelievable leader and developer of people. And I think as we move forward with a new offense and defense, it’s going to be pretty special and exciting here.”

5. ‘Open dialogue’ a key part in the Patriots’ reshaped staff: With the Patriots and long-time head coach/quasi-general manager Bill Belichick parting ways this offseason, the organization reshaped its football operations department. As part of this process, the number of people involved increased both on the coaching staff and within the front office.

For Eliot Wolf, who is overseeing the second of those departments, the secret to a successful operation despite many voices involved lies in communication.

“I think the key is just having open and honest meetings and dialogue,” he said. “We had a series of meetings last week that were tremendous for us as we all got on the same page in terms of what our team needs are, and I was actually really encouraged by everybody willing to just say their opinion, even if it was different from the previous person. So, having those open, honest meetings and working together to determine the best outcome is definitely what’s important.”

6. The magic number for offensive linemen: The Combine is only one piece of the pre-draft evaluation puzzle, and its testing results in a vacuum cannot predict success or failure of future NFL players. That being said, Josh Norris of Underdog Fantasy found out that there is one metric better suited than others to serve as such a predictor: the short shuttle for offensive linemen.

The magic number is 4.47 seconds, a mark 29 prospects managed to beat since 2010. Of those, 24 were drafted and they ended up starting 84 percent of their NFL games (1,742 of 2,073).

7. Jalen Mills explains what he is looking for in free agency: One of 21 unaccounted free agents for the Patriots this offseason, safety Jalen Mills is not guaranteed a return. Wherever he ends up playing in 2024, however, he has some clear goals in mind: 1.) He wants to continue his career for a few more years, and 2.) He wants to be used in a versatile fashion.

Appearing on 105.3 The Fan in Dallas, he spoke — among other topics — about just that.

“I’ve seen guys — Malcolm Jenkins, I think he played 12 years. [Devin] McCourty played 13. I think I want to do 13. Body still feels good, I feel young,” he said about his plans for the future.

“But I think for me, being a strong safety, being able to be in the box — something I did my last year in Philly and then I kind of did it a little bit this year as well — but being able to cover down on the tight ends, being able to be in the box, blitz, but also I’m able to, because of my cornerback background, to play in the slot. … I want to be a coverage safety that guys are like — it kind of happened this year — , ‘If it’s the wrong personnel and we have our safety out there, we can put him on a slot receiver for a down and we’ll be good.’”

8. Patriots not interested in taking parting shots at Bill Belichick: The Patriots’ new leadership has been quite vocal about a new era being ushered in in New England. And while the repeated mention of that was viewed by some as criticism of former coach Bill Belichick, his successor made sure to clear the air.

“Bill did a great job for a long period of time. I don’t want you guys to take this as, because we’re changing, shots toward the previous regime,” Jerod Mayo told reporters in Indianapolis. “In saying that, we will do it differently, and it’ll feel different. But at the end of the day, we would like to replicate the success that the prior regime has had. So, I learned a lot from Bill and also his staff, but now we’ll see what this chapter looks like in the franchise.”

Mayo was hired as head coach less than 24 hours after the Patriots and Belichick announced their mutual parting of the ways last month. The former linebacker had a stipulation in his contract ensuring he would eventually succeed Belichick whenever he and the team agreed to move on.

9. Nick Caserio showers Eliot Wolf with praise: The Patriots’ new de facto general manager, Eliot Wolf, is no stranger around the league after spending the last two decades in Green Bay, Cleveland, and — since 2020 — New England. His first year with the Patriots also was Nick Caserio’s last before leaving to join the Houston Texans.

Earlier this week, Caserio spoke about his one-time colleague in the Patriots personnel department.

“I would say Eliot is very respected,” he said. “He obviously has a very great pedigree in terms of his dad, he’s learned a lot of football. Eliot understands football. He’s got a great demeanor. He’s got a great personality, very perspective, very self-aware, and he’s got a good demeanor. I think he’ll be able to work in concert with the scouting staff, and then I think he’ll be a great asset to Jerod as well as he works through.”

10. Setting up the week ahead: The Combine will continue in Indianapolis for two more days. While quarterbacks, wide receivers, and running backs will do the bench press on Sunday before departing, offensive linemen and specialists will have measurements on on-field workouts that day. They will do the bench press on Monday, officially putting a wrap on the event.

Aside from pre-draft work, another big date comes up on Tuesday. The NFL franchise tag window will close at 4 p.m. ET, meaning that the Patriots have to make a decision on their two potential tag candidates — safety Kyle Dugger and offensive lineman Michael Onwenu — by that time.