Ryan Poles has set the table

Chicago has a history of setting up its quarterbacks for failure. Ryan Poles might have engineered things to finally break that cycle.

The Chicago Bears have had a tradition of bringing in a quarterback but giving him nothing to work with. The last three high-profile quarterback acquisitions (Cutler, Trubisky, and Fields) all required significant investment of draft resources and were handed poor situations overall. Receivers were often mundane, offensive lines were incomplete, and coaching staffs were questionable. Even when a quarterback was provided with help, it was often later in the player’s tenure, after bad habits had been ossified.

It is possible that Ryan Poles has managed to break that cycle.

First, Poles will spend 1.01 at quarterback

If you believed that Justin Fields was going to turn around in Year 4, there is nothing I can type here that will change your mind. However, regardless of what happens with Justin Fields now that he is with the Steelers, Ryan Poles has the chance to select whichever quarterback he believes is the best for the future of Chicago at #1. That player will walk into a better situation that Chicago has handed a new quarterback in recent memory. Depending on the metrics used or the factors that are weighted, it might be the best situation a quarterback taken at #1 overall has enjoyed in the modern era.

By all signs, the 1.01 will likely be spent on Caleb Williams. However, even if that does not happen, the reality is that the table has been set for a new quarterback.

Second, the offensive line is decidedly not bad.

Too many Chicago quarterbacks have struggled behind poor offensive lines. Not “average” offensive lines–actively bad blocking units. Currently, the two tackle positions on the Bears are currently held by players drafted by Ryan Poles on their rookie contracts who won rookie-of-the-year honors in their respective campaigns. Converted tackle (now guard) Teven Jenkins has been arguably better than either of those men, even if he has struggled with injuries. Nate Davis has been at worst an average player. However, there has been a gaping hole at center and there have been struggles with depth.

At center, Chicago has acquired Coleman Shelton, and while it is difficult to “rate” offensive linemen without a considerable degree of subjectivity, Shelton has been a moderate (or better) center with more than two thousand snaps at the position. For depth, the team has added Ryan Bates (who can play center or guard) and Matt Pryor to the previously adequate Ja’Tyre Carter.

This is not an invincible line for the ages, in all likelihood. It is, however, likely to be no worse than average–with the potential to have real points of strength.

Third, the offense has weapons.

Keenan Allen is a six-time Pro Bowler coming off of the best season of his career, and while DJ Moore has never made a Pro Bowl, he has averaged more than a thousand yards per season in his six-year career. At tight end, Cole Kmet is coming off of a career-best season; depending on the metric, Kmet is probably in the top ten of tight ends at the moment–and might even be higher. There are still pieces that need work, sure. The two younger receivers (Velus Jones, jr and Tyler Scott) still need to prove themselves, but there is another veteran available in Dante Pettis and even a clear secondary tight end in Gerald Everett. If there is any truth to the old saw that a running back can be a rookie quarterback’s best friend, 1.01 will have his choice of a reigning Pro Bowler (D’Andre Swift), a competent #2 (Khalil Herbert), and a sophomore with flashes (Roschon Johnson).

There is room here for quibbling, and an elite prospect at any of the offensive positions would be hard to resist in the draft, but there is not a glaring hole that demands attention, unlike in too many past seasons.

Third, the defense is in pretty good shape.

To be as transparent as possible, I love defense in football. The analytic side of my brain understands that passing offense is more important, but there’s something viscerally satisfying about denying the other team a chance to stay on the field. However, intellectually, I know that teams need to invest in the passing game. It’s the best way to win football games. From a completely dry and analytic way of looking at things, defense should really only be a priority once the passing offense has been addressed. It’s very possible, however, that Ryan Poles has done exactly that within reason.

Still, the secondary has a Pro Bowl cornerback in Jaylon Johnson—backed by promising younger players in Kyler Gordon and Tyrique Stevenson; Jaquan Brisker and Kevin Byard meanwhile head a strong group of safeties. The linebacker position group is secured by Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards. If there is a lack anywhere, it would be at edge rusher—but even there Chicago has options, if not a second elite player to pair with Pro Bowler Montez Sweat.

It feels important at this place to point out, though, that there is no imbalance in favoring the defense when it comes to the draft. To date, Ryan Poles has used draft capital to add 15 net players to the offense through a mixture of drafts and trades, spending 3000 points of “Jimmy Johnson” draft value on the offense, or 74.4 points of expected “average value” on the Chase Stuart chart (more than three and a half times the performance to date of Cole Kmet).

By contrast, Poles has used draft capital to add 12 players on defense, but he has also traded away three players (Mack, Quinn, and Smith) for draft picks–including one spent on an offensive player. He has netted only 9 players on defense and spent just over 1500 points of “Jimmy Johnson” draft value on defense, about half of what he has spent on offense. In Chase Stuart terms, he has spent 40.1 points of expected value (just under two Cole Kmets).

Setting aside #1, even if #9 and #75 were both to be spent on defense, in terms of total draft picks invested, in terms of imaginary draft value, and in terms of actual expected value, then the total investment in defense would not match the total investment in offense. To be clear–that’s probably how it should be. The offense needs to be more important. However, there is not a “debt” owed to the offense unless someone attaches arbitrary weight to the second round, where there has been a focus to date.

Conclusion

For the first time in perhaps far too long, Chicago is in a position where its general manager can say that he has set up a roster that should help a new quarterback find success. Many things can still go “wrong” of course, but this might be the best attempt in recent history to control the factors that can be controlled in order to allow a #1 overall quarterback to succeed.