Quarterback or wide receiver? How about both?

Trying to have my cake and eat it too in the 2024 NFL Draft

There’s always a lot of disagreement on Big Blue View, on the app formerly known as Twitter, on YouTube, on TV, on talk radio, and anywhere else that football fans and ostensible NFL experts gather to opine about the New York Giants and their approach to the upcoming NFL Draft.

I think we can all agree, though, that the Giants’ offense needs help. We can debate whether Joe Schoen’s offseason moves have strengthened the offensive line to the point at which it might even be middle of the road rather than the train wreck it was in 2023. No one, though, can claim that the Giants have the makings of an explosive offense and players that opposing teams have to specifically game plan for if the season were to begin today.

The one player the Giants did have in that category, Saquon Barkley, is gone. Darren Waller has gone from a match-up nightmare to possibly just a nightmare with his retirement flirtation. Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson are underrated receivers who can be an important part of a contending team, but they are not keeping opposing defensive coordinators awake at night. Jalin Hyatt has the potential to be that, but it can’t be assumed that he’ll get there.

That leaves quarterback. Regardless of one’s view of Daniel Jones, it’s difficult to imagine defensive coordinators worrying about him too much once they shut down the zone read when they face the Giants. More to the point, independent of Jones’ abilities, he may be one more neck injury away from forced retirement, and neither Drew Lock nor Tommy DeVito is expected to be the answer if one of them takes the reins.

I’ve been trying to figure out how the Giants might address both positions with true playmakers in the upcoming draft. The usual scenarios these days are

1. Find a way to get Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, or J.J. McCarthy (we’ll assume Caleb Williams to the Bears is a done deal at this point) either at No. 6 or by trading up to No. 3 or 4, and then take the best wide receiver available at No. 47.
2. Stay put at No. 6, take one of the three outrageously talented wide receivers that is almost guaranteed to be there, and take whatever second-tier QB is available at No. 47, or even a lower-ranked prospect at No. 70.

Every time I try a mock draft using one or the other approach I find myself frustrated by the outcomes. The reason is simple but in my mind under-appreciated by the NFL community: The QB talent and the WR receiver talent in this draft are not the same, yet the QBs are more highly valued than the WRs because of the outsized importance of the quarterback position in today’s NFL. As a result, you have to overpay to move up in Round 1 for a quarterback who may or may not be good at the NFL level, and if you don’t, any promising second option may be gone by the time of your next pick.

The wide receiver board in this draft is deep, with good options late in Round 1 and Round 2, but the three top prospects are just outstanding. Quibble about which of the three you like best, but there is a real chance that all three will become elite NFL players. And while players such as Brian Thomas Jr., Adonai Mitchell, Ladd McConkey, etc. are likely to have good NFL careers as well, the thought of passing on one of the top three just doesn’t sit right with me.

My feelings are just the opposite about the quarterback prospects. Each of the three that reasonably might be selected by the Giants is very talented. Each also has warts in his game. Those warts are being discussed endlessly by analysts these days, and following the projection of each one in the draft and in his NFL career is like riding the Cyclone at Coney Island. That’s different from the wide receivers, whose discussion is more like which of three great desserts on the menu you should order.

I only came to that realization recently after starting to read Matt Waldman’s 2024 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. No one gets every call right, but Waldman does a more exhaustive breakdown of quarterback prospects than anyone else, and he specifically tries to project which traits, or lack thereof, portend a more or less successful NFL career. Reading Waldman’s analyses, I finally realized that none of these quarterbacks, other than Williams, is that great a prospect. They could all turn out to be great pros, but they could all wind up as busts as well, depending on their mental makeup and the team/coaching situation they are drafted into. Waldman has this to say about the class overall:

This year, there are 2-3 players who have elements of (Patrick) Mahomes, (Josh) Allen, or (Lamar) Jackson’s game in this draft. Mahomes is not the best comparison for Caleb Williams, but it’s the one you’ll see elsewhere. Williams has the best potential to become a star in the NFL, but there’s a much lower floor than Mahomes…The rest of the class has elements in their game comparable to the NFL’s established stars, but most GMs should know this draft doesn’t have a Mahomes, Allen, or Jackson in it. It’s unlikely they’ll see anyone like these three for the next 15-30 years. The goal is to find a quarterback who can help them be competitive and this class has 4-6 who have a chance to develop to that level.

When you look at how Waldman ranks the QB prospects below Williams, whose grade was comparable to Anthony Richardson’s and slightly above C.J. Stroud’s from the 2023 class, you will be surprised to find that his QB2 is Michael Penix Jr. Penix is at the bottom of his “rotational starter” category, five points below Williams, while next just below him is Bo Nix, at the top of his next category, “contributor.” Daniels, McCarthy, and Maye in that order round out his top six. He is harshest in his criticism of Maye, whom he damningly classifies as a “robo-quarterback,” a moniker he also gave to Mitch Trubisky.

Waldman may or may not be right. He’s just one analyst, albeit one who does an exhaustive amount of tape research, provides more detailed breakdowns than anyone, and has been on the mark pro or con about several college quarterbacks that others saw differently including Mahomes, Jackson, and Zach Wilson. (For the record, he was not high on Daniel Jones.) My question is: Do the Giants want to use a No. 6 pick on any of these prospects, or even worse trade assets to move up to get one, given the uncertainty? Or are the standard big board rankings and predictions just evidence of a league that is desperate for good QBs, will risk anything to get one they perceive as having any kind of chance to take them to the promised land, and thus overdrafts many of them? With other teams such as Minnesota, Denver, and perhaps Las Vegas all looking for QBs, the bidding war to get into the top four may get out of control.

Let’s take a different approach. Instead of rolling the dice in a high-stakes game early on Day 1, why not accept the gift that will fall into the Giants’ laps of a potentially game-changing wide receiver at No. 6 and then play a lower-stakes game with the No. 47 pick?

One could play the Dirty Harry do-you-feel-lucky game and hope that one of Waldman’s top six QBs falls to the Giants at No. 47. Until recently I thought that was a good gamble to make, but in the QB hysteria of the pre-draft period, even prospects like Penix and Nix are rising up big boards and are now projected to go early in Round 2 or even Round 1. If you buy Waldman’s analysis, that’s warranted. Even if you don’t buy Waldman’s take on the class, there is the larger point that no one knows who the best quarterbacks from this class are – including NFL general managers and scouts. The history of the draft tells us that, over and over again. So let’s try to go get one of them, but at a much lower price than it would take to move up from No. 6.

Here are mocks using two different simulators just to sample some of the uncertainty and deal with the bias inherent in any one simulator. The idea is to trade up to get into a position to take one of those two QBs. Penix is my choice because of Waldman’s high ranking of him, but I’d take Nix too. The gamble is to wait long enough on draft day before making a draft trade to minimize the assets surrendered while not being beaten to the punch by another QB-hungry team.

Draft 1

I used the Pro Football Network simulator, which is fairly strict about making a trade that they don’t suggest. I grabbed WR Rome Odunze at No. 6, and then I waited patiently until Day 2 was underway. Then when Atlanta was on the clock at No. 43 I executed a trade with them in which I gave up No. 47, No. 166 (Round 5), and the Giants’ 2025 Round 4 pick to get Penix. I made the move because Las Vegas and New Orleans, both of whom might seek a QB on the cheap, were lurking at Nos. 44 and 45. My draft through four rounds looks like this:

Courtesy of Pro Football Network

Odunze AND the quarterback who threw to him and got them to the national championship game? I’ll take that, confident that I got at least one game-changer and maybe two. For good measure, I got a promising guard, Christian Mahogany, and a rotational cornerback in Andru Phillips in the next two rounds.

I know people don’t like Penix because of all his injuries. Those were at Indiana. He played injury-free at Washington for two years and balled out. What arm talent, though. People use the Michigan loss to argue that he wilts under pressure. Waldman doesn’t see that in his film as a problem. If you don’t like Penix, though, take Bo Nix at No. 43 instead. Waldman likes him almost as much as Penix and feels that he is more than the system quarterback that he’s been branded as being because of the RPO-heavy offense he was given to run at Oregon. Penix and Nix are basically what McCarthy used to be before the “experts” drove him into the top 10 in the last couple of months.

Draft 2

The other knock on the draft above is that waiting for Round 2 may be too late. QB-hungry teams who miss out on the so-called top 4 may be looking to grab Penix or Nix late in Round 1 (which also has the advantage of getting a quarterback with a fifth-year option). This time I used the NFL Mock Draft Database simulator to get a different big board and trading algorithm (theirs is more liberal than PFN’s). This time, lo and behold, Marvin Harrison Jr. dropped to me at No. 6. Yes, please. I wouldn’t have thought that possible, but increasingly people are imagining the possibility of four QBs off the board in the first four picks, assuming a trade-up by some team to No. 4, and then OT Joe Alt to the Chargers. I traded No. 47 plus the Giants’ 2025 Round 2 pick in exchange for Miami’s No. 21 pick. I didn’t want to wait any longer, because Minnesota was lurking at No. 23, and the Eagles, who are not to be trusted on draft day, were at No. 22. Here is the result:

Courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database

Once again I got an elite wide receiver prospect, plus Waldman’s QB2 from this draft.

Here’s the bottom line: After Caleb Williams, there are legitimate reasons to be suspicious about the next three quarterback prospects in this draft. Drake Maye has the arm, but he throws into trouble sometimes, has inconsistent footwork that affects his accuracy, and sometimes lacks anticipation and misses potential explosive plays. Jayden Daniels has a good enough arm and is devastatingly effective as a runner, but he leaves the pocket and runs at the first hint of pressure and does not throw to the middle of the field enough. J.J. McCarthy has a good enough but not great arm, but he hasn’t demonstrated he can throw deep in game conditions, had trouble passing accurately outside the numbers to his left, and wasn’t asked to do a lot at Michigan.

All of these weaknesses may be correctable at the NFL level under good coaching. Certainly, one reason the Giants hired Brian Daboll was his talent in developing quarterbacks. The guy got three victories last season from an undrafted free-agent quarterback, including a game-winning drive against a Green Bay team that mauled Dallas and almost defeated San Francisco in the playoffs a few weeks later. Maybe in Daboll’s hands, any of these players can become a franchise QB. Yet the same logic should apply to Penix and Nix, both of whom rank more highly in Waldman’s eyes. Why overpay?

Meanwhile, Waldman gives Malik Nabers his highest rating of “Rare: Instant All-Pro upside; takes over games and changes teams.” Rome Odunze and Marvin Harrison Jr. are only a couple of points lower, in the tier of “Franchise: Immediate production and leadership anchor.” Nothing is certain in the NFL, but the odds that all three become great NFL wide receivers are much higher than the odds that even two of the four highest-rated quarterback prospects do.

So why not make the simultaneously safe yet exciting choice at No. 6 while only giving up modest draft assets for the chance of a second game-changer from the same draft?