Pieces to the Puzzle: Xavier Legette

Now that the Panthers have new pieces for their 2024 puzzle, how do those pieces fit?

With the 2024 NFL Draft behind us, we now have the opportunity to look forward and predict how this draft class will fit into the current regime’s plans. Obviously the coaches and scouts believe these players fit in some form or fashion into at least one of the three phases, but let’s try to look at past trends from this coaching staff and guess what type of usage we can expect from the newest Carolina Panthers.

First up is the Panthers first round selection: Xavier Legette (pronounced “Lee-git” per himself). A lot of people, myself included, saw some similarities in body type and physical abilities between Legette and Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf. Both are big, strong, fast wideouts; around 6’2” and around 225 pounds, they both ran in the 4.3s in the forty at their respective combines. They had similar vertical jumps of right at or slightly above 40”, as well as broad jumps eclipsing the 10’6” mark. The three cone drill was the one athletic test that both receivers performed slightly below their other stellar marks on. Legette notched a 7.21 at his pro day, and Metcalf ran a 7.38 at the combine. This lack of short area quickness led to scouts questioning both players’ abilities to run crisp routes and create separation. Panthers head coach Dave Canales was the quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator in Seattle for Metcalf’s first four seasons, so let’s see how he was used.

Metcalf’s rookie season in 2018 was fantastic. He snagged 58 catches for 900 yards and seven touchdowns on just 97 targets. While Canales was the quarterbacks coach at the time, Metcalf graded out at 69.7 according to PFF. Canales was promoted to passing game coordinator for 2020 and 2021 when Metcalf really broke out, notching 83 catches for 1303 yards and 10 touchdowns on 124 targets in 2020 and 75 catches for 967 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2021. Metcalf graded out at 82.7 and 80.9, respectively. When Canales returned to the quarterbacks coach role, Metcalf’s production took a bit of a dip. While his targets increased to a career high 139, he only managed to make 90 catches for 1048 yards and six touchdowns.

Clearly Metcalf was more productive with Canales running the passing game, so let’s take a closer look at some advanced stats to see how he got the most out of the athletic receiver. While Canales was working closely with Metcalf, his average depth of target hovered around 13. That mark is usually high enough to be in the top ten of receivers with at least 100 targets, meaning he was targeted downfield more than most high-volume receivers. Due to a combination of his athleticism and Canales’s scheme, Metcalf averaged around 4.5 yards after the catch. Metcalf was able to break tackles and was schemed open on intermediate and deep routes. This is further evident based on Metcalf averaging 1.5 to 2 deep targets per game and just over 2 yards per route run. That means DK Metcalf averaged two yards receiving on every passing play he was on the field, whether he caught the ball or not. Most receivers with that high a yards per route run also have above 30% target rate, but that was not the case for Metcalf. After Canales took over the passing game, Metcalf’s target share rose from 20% to 28% but was still much lower than the likes of Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, etc.

While Legette cannot be expected to live up to the level of DK Metcalf, we can use these numbers to get an idea of how Legette will be used on offense. I expect him to be used like Metcalf was under Dave Canales: schemed open on crossers and deep overs with a couple deep shots sprinkled in. Getting the ball in Legette’s hands in space will be a priority for this staff. As far as a stat prediction for Legette, I would be comfortable predicting something around 50 catches for 700 yards and five touchdowns. Will that stat line win rookie of the year? No. Is it an improvement over almost any receiver the Panthers had last season? Absolutely.

How do you think Legette will be used this season? What kind of stats do you think he’ll put up? Sound off in the comments!