Phillies, Zack Wheeler Have Opened Extension Talks

The Phillies have begun extension discussions with Zack Wheeler’s camp at Wasserman, the star righty told reporters (link via Matt Gelb of the Athletic). Talks are in the early stages and there’s no indication a deal is imminent.

Philadelphia has made no secret of its desire to retain Wheeler beyond the 2024 season. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki wrote in December the Phils considered an extension a priority. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski went on record to confirm that last week.

Wheeler, who turns 34 in May, is entering the final season of a five-year free agent contract. The club’s $118MM investment over the 2019-20 offseason has been one of the best free agent acquisitions of the past few years. Wheeler has turned in a 3.06 ERA over his first four seasons in Philadelphia. He has appeared on Cy Young ballots in three of them, including a runner-up finish in 2021. Only Gerrit Cole, Sandy Alcántara and teammate Aaron Nola have thrown more innings since the start of 2020.

The former #6 overall pick didn’t show many signs of slowing down a year ago. Wheeler took a full slate of 32 starts and worked 192 innings. While his 3.61 ERA was his highest as a Phillie, that partially reflects a spike in offense around the league. Wheeler’s 26.9% strikeout rate matches his prior season’s output. He walked only 5% of opponents and finished 13th in MLB in innings. Wheeler induced swinging strikes on a career-best 13.3% of his offerings and averaged a robust 95.9 MPH on his four-seam fastball.

Wheeler is under contract for $23.5MM for the upcoming season. An extension would surely come with larger annual salaries for 2025 and beyond. Long-term extensions for pitchers covering their mid-30s are rare, as one might imagine. Over the past five seasons, the only starter to sign an extension covering at least three years at age 33 or older is Yu Darvish. Last February, the Padres inked Darvish to a surprising five-year, $90MM pact covering his age 37-41 seasons.

That’s not a great comparison point for Wheeler, who is three years younger than the San Diego righty was at the time. An extension would take effect in his age-35 campaign. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, two pitchers — Max Scherzer and former teammate Jacob deGrom — have secured nine-figure free agent deals at that age. deGrom landed a five-year, $185MM guarantee from the Rangers at 35 last winter. Scherzer secured a three-year, $130MM pact from the Mets covering his age 37-39 campaigns in November ’21. The $43.333MM average annual value was a record at the time; it’s now tied for second after being matched by Justin Verlander and topped by Shohei Ohtani.

Wheeler hasn’t matched the levels of dominance turned in by deGrom and Scherzer at their best. He has a far better durability track record than deGrom, though, and he’s a couple years younger than Scherzer was when he signed with New York. Those pitchers had the benefit of open market bidding. Wheeler won’t have that in extension talks with Philadelphia, but it’d very likely take something approaching free agent prices for him to sign early.

“I just want to be paid [based on] how I’ve done, what they expect out of me,” he told reporters (including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer). “It’s not all about the money to me, either. I took less to come here and be in a good spot and be happy and for my family to be happy. I do want — what’s the right word? — I want what I feel like I’ve earned. … Market value. There you go.”

Wheeler has a solid case for a four-year deal that pushes well into nine figures. He has a better track record than the likes of Sonny Gray and Chris Bassitt, each of whom secured three-year deals covering their age 34-36 campaigns. Gray landed $75MM from the Cardinals this winter, while Bassitt inked a $63MM pact with the Blue Jays a year ago.

The Phillies haven’t been shy about making long-term commitments, although they don’t have anyone making more than $28MM annually. Each of Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Nola, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Taijuan Walker are on the books for at least $18MM per season beyond next year. The deals for Turner, Harper, Nola, Castellanos and Walker stretch at least into 2026.

Roster Resource projects the organization’s 2025 payroll around $171MM; they’re at approximately $187MM in luxury tax obligations. The base tax threshold for the ’25 season will be $241MM. A Wheeler extension would likely push their tax number past $215MM, potentially north of $220MM. They’re set to exceed the threshold for a third straight season in 2024, so they’d be subject to the maximum penalties for repeat payors in ’25 and beyond. That hasn’t been a stumbling block for owner John Middleton in recent years. A Wheeler extension would all but ensure they’d pay the CBT for at least a fourth consecutive season in 2025.

There doesn’t seem to be a firm deadline for a deal to get done. Wheeler suggested he’d be amenable to continuing talks beyond Opening Day but noted he’s taking a “hands-off” approach to negotiations between the team and his agents.