Open thread: What are reasonable expectations for Jameson Williams in Year 3?

Entering his third season, Jameson Williams has a clear runway to realize his potential in 2024. So what kind of production can we expect?

Year 3 in the NFL was an important year for a lot of Brad Holmes’ 2021 draft class. Guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Penei Sewell cemented themselves as top players at their respective positions after years of high-level play—and signed contracts to match their production. For players like Derrick Barnes and Ifeatu Melifonwu, who looked to be on the path towards becoming fixtures on special teams or depth pieces, they’ve proved themselves to be serious contributors on defense.

This year, Jameson Williams, the 12th overall pick in the Lions’ 2022 draft, will finally be afforded the opportunity to start the season with a clean slate. With no major injury to rehab or suspension to limit his participation, Williams gets a chance to hit the ground running in his third season—and that’s great news for all parties involved. For Williams, there’s no other receiver on the roster who provides his uber-athletic skillset and unique ability to rip the top off of opposing defenses, and since he’s firmly situated as the No. 2 wideout on Detroit’s depth chart, there’s going to be plenty of opportunities for Williams to showcase his talent. For the Lions, Williams is the kind of player who can transform their offense from a top-five unit to potentially the most diverse and lethal attack in the entire NFL.

So this brings us to today’s Question of the Day…

What are your expectations for Jameson Williams in Year 3?

First thing to get out of the way is this: tampering expectations for Williams isn’t going to be easy. Fantasy football prognosticators are surely going to be disappointed if they see the opportunities “up for grabs” after the departure of Josh Reynolds and assume it’ll all be inherited by Williams; that isn’t taking into consideration how diverse this Detroit Lions offensive attack is—loaded with skill players all over the field who win in their own unique ways. Sam LaPorta and St. Brown can win up the seam, to the sidelines, and across the formation in the short and intermediate areas. Gibbs is one of the league’s best running backs out of the backfield, and there’s room to believe offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is going to add more to his plate as a receiver/route runner in his second year.

Williams is that player who can win one-on-one, deep over the middle on corner and post routes without needing to be schemed open. Given more reps with Jared Goff, there’s room for growth between the veteran quarterback and Williams on quick hitters like slants and outs in hopes for yards after the catch thanks to how slippery he can be. If Williams can put it all together, he truly has the ability to be the most dynamic skill player on a team that has plenty of other worthy candidates for that moniker.

So how will the Lions divvy up the 64 targets left behind by Reynolds? For someone Holmes touted as a “position-less weapon” after last year’s draft, the best guess is that Gibbs gets more play as a pass-catcher after getting just 71 targets in his rookie season. Somewhere between 85-90 targets seems like fair uptick to expect for Gibbs on his second go around. LaPorta did have a very healthy 120 targets last season, and that’s a ridiculous amount of trust and workload for a tight end in their rookie season, especially when you think about the other options in Detroit’s offense. Hard to imagine him getting even more work coming his way, but it’s certainly not off the table. Guys like Kalif Raymond, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and David Montgomery could even get a few more passes thrown their way since they’ve proven effective in spots.

85-95 targets might not seem like a lot for such an investment and talent as Williams, but keep in mind, that would be over a 100% increase in opportunities. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 50-55 catches for 850-950 yards (~16.5 yards per reception) and a handful of touchdowns seems like it would not only be an upgrade for the Lions at WR2, but a big step in the right direction for Jamo. But another more specific area the Lions would stand to integrate into their offense is more deep passes, and Jamo stands to see a huge uptick in that respect. Last year, according to Pro Football Focus, Williams had just 12 deep targets (20+ yards downfield) and ranked 64th among wide receivers. At least doubling that number wouldn’t be unreasonable given he should see his targets just about double as well in 2024—for what it’s worth, 25 deep targets would have put him in the top 12 among wideouts last year.

And at the end of the day, don’t get too caught up in how many times he’s getting the ball thrown to him because plays like these work just fine—juuuuuust fine.

What do you think of these expectations for Jameson Williams in his third NFL season? Too much? Too little? Just about right? Let us know.