You asked. We answered.
The draft rumors are flying at full tilt with less than a week remaining until the first round kicks off on April 25. The newest connection for the Falcons is Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy. NFL Media analyst Daniel Jeremiah, who is as plugged in on the draft as virtually anyone, tossed Murphy’s name out as a surprise Top-10 candidate during his media call recently.
“It’s a league that’s placed an ever-more premium on defensive tackles,” Jeremiah said. “I was talking to a general manager this morning and I said when you look around the league and we asked who are the true impact, dominant defensive tackles? Maybe about seven or eight of them. Edge rushers, it goes a lot deeper than that. And when you look at the draft, to me, there’s some other interesting names you could after outside the first round at the edge rusher position. It falls off pretty quick at defensive tackle.”
The term “positional value” is often used to describe the most important positions on the field—quarterback, edge rusher, left tackle, etc. However, the actual finances involved with each position are a crucial part of the calculus for teams as well. Because rookie contracts are significantly cheaper than second contracts, selecting a position that commands top dollar in free agency maximizes the contractual value if the player hits.
Defensive tackle has become an increasingly expensive position with 16 players currently set to count for at least $10 million against their team’s cap in 2024, according to Spotrac. Just two years ago, only eight defensive tackles met that threshold. In fact, there are more defensive tackles at that $10 million mark than left tackles or cornerbacks, which illustrates how teams view the impact of that position. Both Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata are among that group of 16, but that might not be sustainable for long.
The No. 8 pick is projected to receive a rookie contract of about $22 million, which would equate to $5.5 million per year, significantly lower than the upper echelon of contracts at the position. If Murphy is the selection there—and these are all hypotheticals at this point—and he becomes the player people expect, it’s a pick that would pay off in more ways than one.
I believe we aren’t talking enough about Fontenot’s apathy to address the EDGE position in this offseason. Should this influence the #8 pick? Clearly Odunze is higher on consensus than Turner, and the need at WR is very evident in my opinion. – Falcons Play Action (@FalconsPlayBR)
Apathy is certainly a word choice. My hunch is that addressing the quarterback spot was at the top of the list, and they were committed to investing as much as they needed to accomplish that goal. But the contract for Kirk Cousins was significant and probably hindered the team’s ability to spend at a high level at other positions. We don’t know if that means they didn’t try, though.
Looking back at each draft of the Fontenot era, Micah Parsons is the only edge player the Falcons would probably like a redo on. But few expected him to become the All-Pro player he’s become now. So, the BPA approach at each point in the 2021, 2022 and 2023 drafts likely did point to the player they selected.
This year, however, I think the need for an edge and the BPA approach will line up nicely. They should have their pick of the top defensive player, and even if Rome Odunze (who I absolutely love, FWIW) is on the board, I’d expect them to target defense. If anything, Odunze being there makes a trade back a bit more likely, because he’s a player a team might trade up for. Let’s not forget, though, that the general manager isn’t the only person making this decision. Arthur Smith was an offensive head coach, they went offense all three years. Raheem Morris is a defensive coach, so I think that’s another reason that a defender makes sense.
You’re not wrong about the need at receiver, but the drop-off in this draft between the first, second and third rounds is far less significant at that position than it is at edge or even corner, which is also loaded.
When picking a player do you prefer High ceiling and risk a low floor or High floor knowing the Player doesn’t have Superstar potential? – K (@StealthFalcon82)
Great question! I believe it depends on the round in question and the position targeted. Knowing that most players in the first round should have a relatively high ceiling based on the types of traits that define a first-rounder, I would focus on a player’s floor. A Day 1 pick is going to play significant snaps from the jump, so I want someone I trust to come in and play at a high level early on.
On Day 3, I’m really looking for one or the other. Either a player who has the ceiling of a first-rounder but has fallen for some reason or another, because the investment in that player is far less significant, or I want a player who may be limited athletically but checks all the intangible boxes and is simply a good football player. Think of your team captains in college who don’t run a 4.4 in the 40-yard dash or have maximized their tools.
The tricky part is Day 2, which is where drafts can be won or lost. I think I still lean towards making sure the player I’m drafting has superstar athletic traits, even if they are still carrying a bit of risk. But the key thing I’d try to identify is how a player was utilized in college and if they relied on others to a higher degree.
George Kittle and Stefon Diggs are perfect examples of these types of players. Kittle was a fifth-round pick out of Iowa in 2017, but I believe a large part of that was because of how Iowa used him—or, rather, how they didn’t use him. Kittle had just 42 catches combined over his final two seasons, but his tape showed a lot of potential as both a receiver and blocker at the next level. Diggs was also a fifth-round pick because he had just one season of production due to a pair of season-ending injuries. He was a five-star recruit, though, and looked electric when he did touch the football.
The lack of production makes each of those picks “risky,” but a close examination of why they didn’t produce at a high level in the past shows that there were extenuating circumstances. Now, I’m well aware not every pick turns out to be Kittle or Diggs, but as the draft goes along, you feel better about investing in that risk.
In this draft, I think a player like Xavier Leggette fits that bill. He’s being discussed as a borderline first-round pick, but I would gladly scoop him up on Day 2 feeling like his best days are ahead of him.
Thanks to everyone who submitted questions for today’s mailbag! If you’d like to submit a question for the future, leave it in the comments below or send to @willmcfadden on Twitter.
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