Offseason Mailbag: Atlanta’s future defense & the cost of Kirk Cousins

You’ve got questions, we’ve got answers.

The NFL Combine begins next week, and it’s one of my favorite events of the year. Not only because it gives us tangible information on many of the league’s top prospects, thus spurring the conversations we’ve been having in new directions, but also because it’s an incredibly fun league convention.

For one week in Indianapolis, you can look on one street corner and see Sean McVay and Les Snead deep in conversation, and then walk into a nearby coffee shop to see Mike Tomlin waiting for his order. It’s a unique experience that provides league stakeholders the opportunity to share intel and discuss where the game is headed. Yeah, the drills are fun to watch, but it’s the insider information that has always interested me.

Only the Falcons’ brass knows how much wheeling and dealing they’ll be doing next week, but it’s an important one for a franchise that believes it’s heading in the right direction. The impacts of the week won’t be felt for a little while but make no mistake: Next week will be crucial.

Now, let’s get to some questions.

The Patriots seem to be the only quarterback-needy team with more money than the Vikings, Raiders, Falcons (30-35m) have. How cheap would Cousins have to be to become a realistic option for us? – SpecsTar (@TarSpecs)

Great question, and a timely one because I’ve begun to think a lot about Kirk Cousins as an option here in Atlanta. No, he’s not nearly as exciting as the prospect of trading up for Jayden Daniels or landing Justin Fields, but Cousins is certainly among the best routes for immediate success. And this part is critical: He was drafted in 2012 by a Washington staff that Raheem Morris was part of. He also rose to prominence in Sean McVay’s offense, which Zac Robinson should use a version of here in Atlanta.

The price tag might be the main concern, though. This is one of the key quotes of the offseason for me, and it came from owner Arthur Blank talking about how Matt Ryan’s cap hit had become prohibitive:

“It had reached a point where, to remind everybody who may be aware of this or not, but in the last 20 years in the Super Bowl, there has never been a quarterback who’s been more than 17 percent of a team’s cap, and Matt was approaching close to 25 percent of ours.”

I’m not sure if that means Blank would shut down any offer that would put a quarterback over that mark, but you better be sure it’s in the back of his mind. However, the immediate concerns of winning should also factor into the calculus. Pro Football Focus currently projects Cousins to get a two-year deal worth about $70 million with $50 million guaranteed. Spotrac projects Cousins will make just under $40 million a year. Both of those projections would make things tricky.

I’ll wrap it up here. While Cousins matches the mold of a Matthew Stafford, who delivered a championship for Los Angeles, if a bidding war does emerge for his services, the Falcons might have a few more reservations than some other teams. Salary cap numbers are somewhat malleable, so maybe they could make it work, but anything close to $35 million a year would be tough to swallow.

“If the Falcons draft JJ McCarthy as their starter, over under 2K average fans for home games next year” – Joe Sciro (@jsciro5)

This question made me immediately think of this graphic that Fanduel recently put out.

Woof. I don’t think J.J. McCarthy would move the needle much in terms of fan attendance by himself if the team doesn’t start winning.

I am concerned about this shift on defense philosophy. Will, are you concerned that the Falcons might be shifting to an under-sized front line where speed might be more prioritized? – David McCallum (@dmcc_mccallum)

Love this question, David! I get the instinct, given Atlanta’s style of defense the last time Raheem Morris was here. However, Morris and new defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake both ran the Vic Fangio style of defense while with the Los Angeles Rams, and it appears they will continue to run a version of that here.

Now, every coach is also going to tailor his or her scheme to match the talents of the players on the roster, and Morris is no different. He’s a players coach, who adjusted the Falcons’ defense a bit when he became interim head coach to maximize his players, and I expect him to do the same here.

Specifically, where the front is concerned, I don’t think they will go with an undersized look. Lake said in his press conference that the Falcons will operate in a base 3-4, which follows the Fangio model. In that defense, though, a 3-4 look can easily shift to a 4-3 under front based on alignment—so it’s malleable. I’d envision Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata manning the 4i end roles in a 3-4 look, and they are well equipped to do so. If Atlanta brings back Calais Campbell, that could be your interior line right there. However, selecting a nose tackle on Day 2 or Day 3 is in play, as is adding one in free agency.

The outside linebackers are in place with players like Lorenzo Carter, Arnold Ebiketie, DeAngelo Malone and Zach Harrison, although Harrison could also slide inside if need be. I’d expect Atlanta to add a big-time name in either free agency or the draft to give the team another option off the edge. I don’t think you’ll see the team get as small as they did in the Dan Quinn era, because this defense isn’t a true one-gap style.

For anyone interested in reading up on the Vic Fangio style of defense, I’d highly recommend reading this substack by Shawn Syed. It’s excellent.

Thanks to everyone who submitted questions for today’s mailbag! If you’d like to submit a question for the future, leave it in the comments below or send it to @willmcfadden on Twitter.