Browns draft consists of six selections, how high could they trade up?
The NFL draft is just days away. For the Cleveland Browns, there is one extra day until they select for the first time on Friday night with the 54th overall selection. NFL draft coverage will continue over the next few days with NFL mock drafts, rumors, profiles and reports.
While the Browns seem more likely to trade down than up and GM Andrew Berry is in “no hurry” to give away good players despite trade rumors, the idea of trading up in a draft is always enticing. Getting “your guy” or someone who falls like Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah a few years ago is exciting.
Cleveland GM Andrew Berry is no stranger to trades, moving up and down while either keeping the same amount of selections (despite moving up) or accumulating more picks. Berry is faced with an interesting “now or later” dilemma in this year’s draft, the year before he finally has a first-round pick to work with again.
Taking a look at the six selections the Browns have going into this year’s draft, the Fitzgerald-Spielberger value chart (which has mostly replaced the Jimmy Johnson one) gives Cleveland’s picks the following values:
- #54 – 988
- #85 – 749
- #156 – 441
- #206 – 300
- #227 – 251
- #243 – 216
- Total – 2,675
- Top overall pick in the F-S trade chart is worth 3,000
For reference, the Johnson trade chart values all of Cleveland’s picks at 565.4 with the top pick still worth 3,000.
While the F-S trade chart has been more accurate in value of actual trades that have taken place, Berry would not be able to trade his entire draft for the second overall selection (despite having slightly more value based on the chart).
Jack Duffin of The OBR presents a far more realistic trade that fits Berry’s history of keeping the same number of picks when trading up:
The Cleveland Browns send picks 54 & 85 to the Colts for pick 46, then we need to find out which of their other picks we would need in return.
Pick 46 is worth 440, so if you then get pick 117 it costs the Browns 25 points on the trade chart, the team trading down will always want to win it.
Berry would get picks #46 & 117 for picks #54 & 85 in Duffin’s proposal. With both trade charts, Cleveland loses on total value but moving up eight selections could give the Browns the guy they covet.
Using Pro Football Network’s Mock Draft simulator, which allows free trades and who provided DBN with interesting trend data for Cleveland mock drafts, the trade was accepted and led to these two picks:
- #46: WR Troy Franklin
- #117: RB Audric Estime
Compared to these two selections without the trade where Franklin had been selected before the Browns were on the clock but their second pick was 30 picks higher:
- #54: DT Michael Hall Jr.
- #85: WR Johnny Wilson
While it is easy to just look at the names and who you might prefer, the exercise is more about options. Would Berry value someone, in this case Franklin, enough to move up eight slots while moving down 32 spots later in the draft?
Duffin noted that he was not in favor of the deal but that he rarely likes the idea of moving up. For the Browns, it will be all about value. As they did with JOK, Cleveland will make a move to get the guy they want. The mystery, that fans won’t know unless they do move up, is who might that prospect be in that Berry would be willing to move up for in 2024?
Is there a realistic trade up target that you would make the above move to make sure the Browns got in this year’s draft?
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