The Browns could select a defensive end in the second round but sack expectations should be low
Last year in the NFL, 24 players had double-digit sacks with TJ Watt, Trey Hendrickson, Josh Allen (the edge rusher not QB) and Khalil Mack the only ones with 17 or more. Cleveland Browns DE Myles Garrett had 14 sacks on his way to the Defensive Player of the Year honor.
Garrett was noted as the toughest to block by a couple of top-notch offensive tackles.
Unfortunately, media and fan expectations are always higher than reality especially when talking about NFL draft picks. Last year, DT Kobie Turner led all rookies with nine sacks. None of the edge (DE/OLB) rushers drafted in the first two rounds had five or more sacks. In fact, just one player in the first two stanzas achieved that with DT Jalen Carter logging six sacks.
Going into the 2024 NFL draft, the Browns don’t select until the 54th pick and could be looking for another edge player at that spot. Last year’s production should set a low bar for sack production for a rookie.
ESPN’s sack production projection (subscriber, $) should also help lower those expectations. Looking at the history for similar players, the data predicts that the top pass rusher off the edge (Dallas Turner) will have just 26.3 sacks through his first five seasons in the league.
An average of just over 5 sacks per year for a player that is predicted to be a top-10 selection.
For the area that Cleveland will be selecting, Chris Braswell from Alabama was given a very low projection (13.8 sacks through five years) while Marshawn Kneeland (15.7) and Jalyx Hunt (13.8) look like potential steals compared to the rest of the draft class.
Based on the history of similar players, just 13 players are projected to crack double-digit sacks total in their first five seasons.
Are you surprised by the low projected sack totals for this draft class?
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