Mock Offseason: Predicting every offseason move as Rams look to take next step

Predicting every move for the Rams this offseason as they look to take the next step

The Los Angeles Rams 2023 season went better than expected. While many were expecting them to tank, they defied the odds and ended up making the postseason. Now that they’ve reset, general manager Les Snead and co. enter an offseason with plenty of resources to take that next step.

However, the question here is how do the Rams spend those resources? In one sense, they’ll want to push for another title with the trio of Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, and Cooper Kupp. On the other hand, they also need to be able to add some young talent that they can move forward and take the torch once that trio hangs it up.

The Rams do enter an exciting offseason. For the first time since entering the 2019 offseason, Snead will have a first round pick to work with. They are currently a team with $39.9M in cap space with potential to create more.

Below, I’ll attempt to predict how the Rams will approach the next few months by laying out a full-scale mock offseason that includes potential extensions, free agency signings, and draft picks, all while keeping a running log of the team’s cap space.

Los Angeles Rams Salary Cap Room, before the NFL Combine: ~ -$39.9 million

Current Los Angeles Rams depth chart (practice squad and IR included)

Offense

QB – Matthew Stafford, Carson Wentz, Stetson Bennett IV, Dresser Winn

RB – Kyren Williams, Ronnie Rivers, Royce Freeman, Zach Evans

WR – Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, TuTu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson, Ben Skowronek, Austin Trammel, Tyler Johnson, Xavier Smith

TE – Tyler Higbee, Davis Allen, Brycen Hopkins, Hunter Long, Miller Forristall, Nikola Kalinic

RT – Rob Havenstein, Warren McClendon, Logan Bruss

LT – Alaric Jackson, Joe Noteboom, AJ Arcuri, Zach Thomas

RG – Kevin Dotson, Tremayne Anchrum

LG – Steve Avila

C – Coleman Shelton, Brian Allen, Mike McAllister

Defense

DE – Aaron Donald, Jonah Williams, Larrell Murchison, Desjuan Johnson, Cory Durden, Earnest Brown IV, Marquise Copeland

NT – Kobie Turner, Bobby Brown

EDGE – Byron Young, Michael Hoecht, Nick Hampton, Ochaun Mathis, Keir Thomas, Zach VanValkenburg

ILB – Ernest Jones, Christian Rozeboom, Jacob Hummel, Olakunle Fatukasi

CB – Ahkello Witherspoon, Cobie Durant, Derion Kendrick, Duke Shelley, Tre Tomlinson, Cameron McCuthcheon, Shaun Jolly, Michael Ojemudia

S – Jordan Fuller, Quentin Lake, Russ Yeast, John Johnson III, Jason Taylor II, Tanner Ingle

Special Teams

P – Ethan Evans

K – Brett Maher, Tanner Brown

LS – Carson Tinker, Alex Ward

*Note: The offseason salary cap uses the team’s top 51 cap hits, which factors into how much cap room new contracts will take off the books. For example, if the Rams sign a player that has a $1 million cap hit, you subtract the 51st-highest cap hit (e.g. $500,000) from the $1 million, equaling an additional ~$500,000 on this year’s cap from the new contract. All contract information comes from Over The Cap and Spotrac.

Rams’ top needs: EDGE, OT, iOL, S, CB, TE, LB, QB

Work the Cap

Restructure QB Matthew Stafford

This is a must this offseason. A base salary restructure would save the Rams $19.8M. Being able to restructure Stafford gives the Rams the ability to re-sign a player like Kevin Dotson or another big-name free agent. Stafford didn’t re-work his contract last year, but it likely gets done this season with Stafford’s cap number set to his $49.5M. His cap number next year would go up to $60M. However, with another good year, Stafford will be the Rams’ quarterback in 2025.

Extend DL Aaron Donald

It’s been flying under the radar this season, but Aaron Donald is in the final year of a three-year contract and his cap-hit is set to be $34.1M. There are a few things true here. While Donald is worth the $34M cap-hit, the Rams don’t necessarily want to be paying him that much. Donald’s $34M cap-hit is $6M more than any other defensive lineman. It’s also true that Donald likely won’t play with just one-year on his deal. The best thing for both sides would be to add two more years onto Donald’s deal to get him through the 2025 or 2026 season. This move could lower his cap-hit this year to around $25M and then pay him more later.

Cut C Brian Allen

The Rams already did this, but it was a given heading into the offseason. Allen was making too much to be a backup on this offensive line. Cutting him was absolutely the right move for this team going forward.

Cut QB Stetson Bennett IV

It seems unlikely at this point that Bennett ever returns to the Rams. This would be a mutual decision from Bennett and the Rams rather than an outright cut.

Designate Joe Noteboom as post-June 1 cut

This is a more difficult decision that meets the eye. In one sense, Noteboom provides good depth as a swing tackle on the offensive line. At the same time, you don’t pay a swing tackle $20M. The fact of the matter is, Noteboom doesn’t have a starting role on this offensive line. From a financial standpoint, cutting him post-June 1 gives the Rams financial flexibility later in the offseason when they want to potentially make a late-add or trade in-season. This move saves them $15M.

Running Cap Total: $68.9M

There are other things that the Rams could do to save money such as restructing Cooper Kupp. That move is going to be tempting. However, there’s a lot of risk in doing so. Unfortunately, Kupp has been injured much of the last two years. If the Rams want any out in that contract after this year, restructuring is not an option. Doing so would raise his cap number next year to $36M. Leaving his contract alone gives them future flexibility to potentially restructure next year instead or cut him if needed.

cutting Tyler Higbee, trading Allen Robinson, among other moves. However, with no tight end options on the roster, cutting Higbee doesn’t make a lot of sense and it’s unlikely a team will take on Allen Robinson’s contract.

Stay or Go: Impending Los Angeles Rams Free Agents

*Note: Contract numbers are based on market values set by Pro Football Focus and Spotrac.

Place ERFA Tender on RB Ronnie Rivers

This move has already been done and shouldn’t come as any surprise.

Place ERFA Tender on WR Austin Trammel

Trammel has put in time on the roster and has shown special teams value. He may start next year on the practice squad again, but he’s someone with familiarity in the system that’s good to keep around.

Place RFA Tender on OT Alaric Jackson

Jackson showed enough last year that he’s worth keeping around at least as a depth piece, if not as a starter at left tackle. Placing a second-round tender on Jackson is a no-brainer. This would cost the Rams just $4.8M which is a bargain for a starting left tackle.

Place RFA Tender on EDGE Michael Hoecht

Hoecht may not be starting in 2024, but he provides a larger body at edge which is good depth to have. Again, ideally the Rams replace him in the draft or free agency, but Hoecht will absolutely be back on a right of first refusal tender at $2.9M.

Re-Sign WR Demarcus Robinson

The Rams already re-signed Robinson which is a move that I would have made as well. Stafford and Robinson had a clear connection and he’ll be a player worth having as depth behind Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. His cap-hit this year is just $4M.

Contract: 1 year, $5M, $5M APY, $4M Guaranteed

Estimated 2024 cap-hit: $4M

Re-Sign iOL Kevin Dotson

Re-signing Kevin Dotson has to be a priority for the Rams this offseason. Simply put, when Dotson was on the field, the Rams offense was better. He came in and became one of the best run-blocking guards in the NFL. The Rams may try to structure his contract to leave them room in free agency.

Contract: 4 years, $72M, $18M APY, $36M Guaranteed

Estimated 2024 cap-hit: $13M

Re-Sign iOL Coleman Shelton

Shelton may end up opting out of his contract, but the Rams seem to consider him a priority. At the very least, he brings good center/guard versatility with the potential to start if needed.

Contract: 2 years, $11M, $5.5M APY, $6M Guaranteed

Estimated 2024 cap-hit: $4

Let Carson Wentz, Ahkello Witherspoon, Jordan Fuller, Brycen Hopkins, Tremayne Anchrum, Royce Freeman, Tyler Johnson, John Johnson III, Duke Shelley, Carson Tinker, Brett Maher, Larrell Murchison, Troy Reeder, Christian Rozeboom, Jonah Williams

Some of these are very difficult decisions. Shelton at the end of the day might just be too much. PFF projects his contract at three years with an average per year of $5.3M. The Rams can improve at that spot. Witherspoon was a good signing last year for the low price. His 2024 market value on Spotrac is $10.2M. Fuller has been good, but another player than the Rams can let walk.

Draft pick allotment

Before the Los Angeles Rams dive headfirst into free agency, we need to account for how much their 2024 draft class and the signing bonuses for undrafted free agents will count against the cap. According to OverTheCap, the cap space needed for the draft class is just $3.8M.

Rams’ Salary Cap room before free agency: ~$34.9M + $15M (post-June 1)

Unrestricted free agency

*Begins March 13 at 4:00 p.m. ET

Sign S Darnell Savage

Contract: 2 years, $10M ($6M guaranteed)

Estimated 2024 cap-hit: $2.25M

In the case that the Rams lose Jordan Fuller in free agency, they’ll need to sign a replacement. Darnell Savage fits the Jordan Fuller role and as it stands, there have been no negotiations between him and the Packers. Savage has had back-to-back down years, but he was selected in the first-round for a reason and should have some familiarity with the Rams’ scheme as the Packers run a similar scheme under Joe Barry.

Sign/Trade for EDGE Brian Burns

Contract: 4 years, $90M ($60M guaranteed)

Estimated 2024 cap-hit: $15M

The Rams have wanted Brian Burns in the past and it’s possible that they make a big push for him this offseason. It’s possible that the Panthers use the franchise tag on Burns. With that said, I’m not sure Burns is playing another down in Carolina. If the Panthers tag Burns, it’s very possible that they try to trade him to get more immediate assets. A day two pick this year and conditional day two pick next year may get the deal across the line. In this scenario, to keep it simple, we’ll say the Rams sign him as a free agent.

Sign TE Hunter Henry

Contract: 2 years, $15M ($7.5M guaranteed)

Estimated 2024 cap-hit: $5.5

The fact of the matter is here, signing Hunter Henry simply makes too much sense. Henry has a past connection with tight ends coach Nick Caley from their time with the New England Patriots and it even goes back to Arkansas. With Tyler Higbee and Hunter Long coming off of a major injury, the Rams need a veteran playmaker in the short-term while Davis Allen continues to develop.

Sign CB Kendall Fuller

Contract: 3 years, $42M ($17.75M guaranteed)

Estimated 2024 cap-hit: $8.5M

Fuller is another free agent that makes a lot of sense for the Rams. He brings versatility to the position that the Rams like with experience on the boundary, in the slot, or even at safety. He brings good ball production which the Rams also value and need in the secondary while also bringing a level of competitiveness. Last season, he allowed 0.8 yards per coverage snap.

Running Cap Total: $17.67M

2024 NFL Draft

*Draft simulation completed using Mock Draft Database’s Mock Draft Simualator

Now that the Rams have taken care of some of their own and addressed a few needs in free agency, it’s time to look at the draft. The Rams will have a first-round pick and will be selecting 19th overall. At that spot, they’ll be looking to add a potential young, star player and then fill out the rest of the draft with potential starters and role players.

Rams’ top needs, post-free agency: C, OT, iOL, CB, S, LB, K

The Pick at 19: OT Amarius Mims, Georgia (MD/PFN, PFF)

In this scenario, Laiatu Latu, Jared Verse, and Quinyon Mitchell were all off of the board. JJ McCarthy was still available which makes things interesting, but the Rams’ interest in a first-round quarterback might not be there.

Now, diving into the pick. I did bring back Alaric Jackson, but the Rams need a future at left tackle. Jackson should perform just as well, if not better in a tighter space where he doesn’t have to rely on his feet as much. Mims is an athletic specimen with the upside of being a top-3 tackle in this draft class. Had he stayed healthy this year, he may be discussed along with Joe Alt and Olu Fashanu.

The Pick at 52: iOL Cooper Beebe, Kansas State

Offensive line with back-to-back picks? It leaves the Rams a little susceptible in the secondary, but it sets them up well on the offensive line for years to come. A trio of Beebe, Avila, and Dotson is a very good trio along the offensive line. Beebe brings a lot of experience and versatility to the offensive line and he fits the new archetype that the Rams are looking for along the interior.

The Pick at 83: S Cole Bishop, Utah

Bishop is a Rams safety if I’ve ever seen one. These are the types of safeties that Les Snead falls in love with and if he’s available in the third-round, it would be hard for the Rams general manager to say no. Bishop is explosive, a sound tackler, and has the size and athleticism to match up well with tight ends. He also brings some special teams experience and versatility. I had the Rams sign Savage in free agency, but they’ll look to add another player to the group.

The Pick at 100: QB Spencer Rattler, South Carolina

Would the Rams really draft another mid-round quarterback in back-to-back years? For starters, Rattler has NFL arm talent and size to go with good mobility. Throughout college, he’s faced adversity and come out the other side. Out of all of the mid-round quarterbacks, Rattler has the best chance to turn into a NFL starter and sitting behind Matthew Stafford would be beneficial.

The Pick at 153: CB Chau Smith-Wade, Washington State

The current approach has left the Rams a little thin at the cornerback position and in not much of a better spot than last year. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them go cornerback in round two instead of waiting this long. However, Smith-Wade is a solid mid-round option with starting potential. He provides the Rams another option in the rotation and should be able to compete with Derion Kendrick and Cobie Durant for playing time.

The Pick at 154: LB Jaylan Ford, Texas

Ford brings special teams experience to contribute right away. However, he also fits perfectly next to Ernest Jones. Ford has good length and is solid in coverage. That’s exactly the type of linebacker that the Rams need. He’ll need time to develop and learn how NFL offenses operate. With that said, for a day three linebacker, he has the upside to develop into a starter.

The Pick at 177: DL Jordan Jefferson, LSU

After opting not to bring back Jonah Williams, the Rams are going to need some depth on the defensive line, especially someone at nose tackle. He brings some versatility, has a good first step, and brings a good motor which the Rams will like. Jefferson is a big body on a defensive line that can eat space.

The Pick at 191: RB Dylan Laube, UNH

Dylan Laube is exactly the type of swiss-army knife weapon that the Rams need on offense. He’s a running back, but might be the best receiving back in the NFL Draft. At New Hampshire, he had 67 receptions last year which led all running backs in college football. In 2022, he had 75 missed tackles. Laube is the ultimate chess piece for an offense which should make McVay’s eyes big.

The Pick at 212: K Cameron Little, Arkansas

The two options at kicker for the Rams late in the draft will be Cameron Little and Joshua Karty. Both players bring a good leg, but Little may be slightly more accurate from range. Either way the Rams go, hopefully they can solve their kicking woes.

The Pick at 217: WR Anthony Gould, Oregon State

Wide receiver isn’t necessarily a need for the Rams. With that said, Gould brings good special teams experience, especially as a returner. He should be able to compete for a final roster spot or potentially end up on the practice squad.

The Pick at 218: OT Julian Pearl, Illinois

Pearl isn’t the cleanest prospect, but he brings a lot of experience and versatility which the Rams will need when it comes to depth on their offensive line. They made a similar pick with Tremayne Anchrum back in 2020. He brings a physical mindset that the Rams need on the offensive line.

Post-Draft/Pre-Training Camp Moves

Sign DL Jonah Williams

Bringing Jonah Williams back on the $2.8M number for a restricted free agent is a little steep. However, the Rams could try to bring him back close to the veteran minimum or slightly more if they wish. Williams could have a small market late, but staying in Los Angeles is likely his best move.

Extend LB Ernest Jones

Contract: 4 years, $39.5M ($16M guaranteed)

Estimated 2024 cap-hit: $4M

The Rams see Ernest Jones as part of their future. Snead mentioned wanting to extend him after the season. It may not get done until before training camp, but expect the Rams to lock Jones up long-term. Something close to the Logan Wilson’s contract makes sense.

Running Cap Total: ~ $13.67M

Los Angeles Rams Depth Chart Post-2024 NFL Draft

QB (3) – Matthew Stafford, Spencer Rattler, Dresser Winn

RB (4) – Kyren Williams, Ronnie Rivers, Zach Evans, Dylan Laube

WR (8) – Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, TuTu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson, Ben Skowronek, Austin Trammel, Anthony Gould, Xavier Smith

TE (6) – Tyler Higbee, Hunter Henry, Davis Allen, Hunter Long, Miller Forristall, Nikola Kalinic

RT (2) – Rob Havenstein, Warren McClendon

LT (4) – Amarius Mims, Julian Peal, AJ Arcuri, Zach Thomas

RG (2) – Kevin Dotson, Logan Bruss

LG (2) – Cooper Beebe, Alaric Jackson

C (3) – Steve Avila, Coleman Shelton, Mike McAllister

Defense

DE (6) – Aaron Donald, Jonah Williams, Desjuan Johnson, Cory Durden, Earnest Brown IV, Marquise Copeland

NT (3) – Kobie Turner, Bobby Brown, Jordan Jefferson

EDGE (7) – Brian Burns, Byron Young, Michael Hoecht, Nick Hampton, Ochaun Mathis, Keir Thomas, Zach VanValkenburg

ILB (4) – Ernest Jones, Jacob Hummel, Jaylan Ford, Olakunle Fatukasi

CB (8) – Kendall Fuller, Cobie Durant, Derion Kendrick, Chau Smith-Wade, Tre Tomlinson, Cameron McCuthcheon, Shaun Jolly, Michael Ojemudia

S (6) – Darnell Savage, Quentin Lake, Cole Bishop, Russ Yeast, Jason Taylor II, Tanner Ingle

Special Teams

P – Ethan Evans

K – Cam Little, Tanner Brown

LS – Alex Ward

This gives them 72 total players, with the ability to add 18 undrafted free agents to fill out their training camp roster.

Wrapping Up

It may not necessarily be the ideal offseason with a few holes still in the secondary. However, adding to the pass rush with Brian Burns should help significantly. The best way to help a secondary is with a pass rush. Still, the Rams added some play-making safeties in Darnell Savage and Cole Bishop. From an offensive line perspective, it went under some significant changes

The starting five would be:

Mims-Beebe-Avila-Dotson-Havestein

Then at depth, the Rams improve with Jackson as their sixth-man and Shelton able to fill in at center or guard. Warren McClendon and Logan Bruss will be looking to take that next step as well. There should be a lot of competition along the depth.

Again, the secondary may not be ideal with Fuller and Durant or Kendrick starting on the outside. However, Savage and Bishop help significantly at safety. Chau Smith-Wade also adds some good depth. With $13M in cap space left for the season, the Rams could potentially look to add someone via trade.

We’ll see what Snead and the Rams actually do, but with the abundance of resources this offseason, it’s critical that they nail it.