Mock Madness

How some mock drafts are realistic and others are laughable

The 2024 NFL Draft from Detroit is now 27 days away.

See the guy in the photo above?

Caleb Williams is the only prospect in the ‘24 draft pool who can be accurately mocked.

By all accounts and the fact that the Bears are already giving him free access to their training facilities, the USC QB is now a lock at pick #1.

All other 256 eventual draft picks are still anyone’s best guess.

Trades at every pick could be discussed and debated.

Only Caleb is a lock.

In the meantime, I imagine that the most well-informed mockers are at the point of cringing whenever they now see someone on Twitter selecting mammoth DT T’Vondre Sweat from Texas at pick #83 or Michigan standout MLB Junior Colson, the 2023 Lott Impact Trophy winner, getting tabbed at pick #103.

The point is —- the PFF Mock Draft Simulator’s player rankings are in many cases way off.

The problem is —- mock drafters who think the PFF rankings are reasonably accurate are apt to be the first fans who will scoff at a team picking a player in the 2nd round who was projected by PFF to be taken late in the 3rd round.

T’Vondre Sweat and Junior Colson are prime examples. I bet you that, unless there are red flags that we are unaware of, most NFL teams have Sweat and Colson in their Top 50.

Today on PFF’s Mock Draft Simulator, I did a 4-round mock for the Patriots in which I addressed 4 of their top offensive needs. I picked players whom I believe would be perfect for them. Check out the grades:

This is a draft that could make perfect sense for the Patriots:

1. J.J. McCarthy has some Tom Brady type qualities (size, pocket floating, toughness, grit, good—-but not superior—-arm strength). Grade: C-
2. Ricky Pearsall is the closest WR prospect to Julian Edelman in this draft. The Patriots haven’t win consistently from the slot since Edelman retired three years ago. Grade: C+
3. Blake Corum could be the RB most likely to break LeGarrette Blount’s all-time Patriots record for 18 rushing TDs in a single season. Corum had 27 rushing TDs in 15 games this season while helping Michigan win a Natty for the first time in 26 years. Grade: C-
4. Christian Jones in the 4th round could be the kind of OL steal the Patriots nabbed when they drafted T/G Mike Onwenu in the 6th round of the 2020 draft. On their current depth chart they have two former 6th rounders starting at the tackle positions, Onwenu and Conor McDermott (6th round in 2017). There is no proven depth behind either of them. Grade: C-

Overall Draft Grade: C-

Here’s an interesting experiment. I went to the PFF Mock Draft Simulator and selected PFF’s top ranked pick at every one of the Cardinals’ picks.

Of course, I knew that by taking the top ranked player on PFF’s board at every pick, I would earn an Overall Grade of A. Mission accomplished —- if earning an A grade was the primary mission, that is.

Analysis:

1. Marvin Harrison Jr. has tremendous upside, he mostly dominated at the collegiate level and possesses a legendary pedigree. The fact that the Cardinals stayed at #4 and took Marvin Harrison Jr. would already make this an A+ draft for the “Marv or Bust” contingent.
2. Jer’Zhan Newton might slide down to the late 20s in the draft because of his broken foot, but he has been doing very well in his rehab and is planning to run for teams in a couple of weeks. Before the injury, he was considered the #1 pass rushing DT in the ‘24 pool,and may still be by many teams. If the Cardinals are able to take him at #27, that’s a fantastic pick at a need position
3. Tyler Nubin is the best cover FS in this pool, which actually is a relatively high need for the Cardinals’ defense seeing as how often the secondary was beaten over the top on long passes. He would be a great pick at #35, but Cardinals fans would likely be irked if the Cardinals took a free safety this high, because Tyler Nubin is an under-the-radar prospect (whom NFL GMs and scouts love by fans a much less aware of) at a position that most Cardinals fans would argue is not one of the team’s primary needs.
4. Bo Nix at #66 is laughable. He’s going top 40 and I believe will go in the 1st round for a team that wants to secure the 5th-year option on him.
5. Kris Jenkins at #71 is also laughable. I promise you that many teams have a 1st round grade on him. He could very well be the best run stopping DT in this draft.
6. Bucky Irving is an exciting pick who is an electrifying runner, but to draft a RB in Round 3 having ignored the Edge and CB positions would be difficult to accept.
7. Subsequently picking 2 more RBs (Ray Davis and Tyrone Tracy), both of whom are very good players in their own right, obviously would not ever happen in this draft. If Ray Davis is available in the 5th or 6th round, he’d be a great pick at that point.
8. Xavier Thomas at 6-2, 244 is a little on the small side for an edge rusher, but he ran a 4.62 at the Combine (very good for edge defenders) and has a super charged motor. Good pick in Round 5. You never know, Thomas could be the next Shaq Barrett.
9. Kamal Hadden at 6-1, 197 has good size and is coming off by far his best season at Tennessee, albeit an injury-riddled one. Excelled in zone coverage (90.2) and was solid in man (69.0). Problem was his run defense (49.0), which Vols’ fans attribute to poor attempts to wrap up. He only played in 7 games and was out the rest of the year with a shoulder injury. But in 7 games he came up with 3 interceptions while only giving up a completion percentage of 38%. At his Pro Day he ran a 4.52 and posted a 34.5” vertical.
10. Jaylan Ford is 6-3, 245 and is a good run stuffer (80.2) who made over 200 tackles combined the past two seasons. Where he struggles is in pass coverage (50.0). Might be a good ILB to have on the goal=line defense, where, if you watched the Texas Longhorns’ games, Ford was a force to be reckoned with.

ROTB Mock Madness:

Dpon’t worry about the PFF grades, mock your favorite players.

If you post your own mock here and would like an eval (of how realistic and good it is) from me, you’ve got it. I will give you grades on each pick —- grades that I would hope would be more realistic than the PFF ones.

I will also evaluate any trades you make.

Let the Mock Madness on ROTB begin!