Mike Kiwak’s Final 2024 First-Round NFL Mock Draft

Here’s my take on what will happen Thursday. I’m prepared for your hatred.

You didn’t come here for intros, you came here for a mock draft that you’ll either love or hate. Let’s get right into it as the real 2024 NFL Draft looms!

1. Chicago Bears: QB Caleb Williams, Southern California

We all know what’s happening yet we’ll still wait the entirety of the clock to move on with our lives. My biggest pet peeve of the entire draft process.

2. Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels, Louisiana State

Now, this pick is much more interesting, as it’s essentially a coin flip between Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels. Daniels’s electric athleticism and clean accuracy vs. Maye’s field processing and big-time throw proclivities – you can find tantalizing positives for both.

I’ll stick with Daniels given the tremendous amount of smoke around the pick. If we all get swerved, credit to whomever started the blaze.

Photo by John Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

3. New England Patriots: QB Drake Maye, North Carolina

I’ve remained steadfast in the belief that you do not willingly pass on top-tier QB prospects for the sake of roster-building. Take your guy, and figure out the rest. Whomever Washington passes on, New England will not.

They have Jacoby Brissett on board as a bridge starter if they so choose, and that would be wise as Maye continues to hone the finer points of the position — primarily with his mechanics.

4. Arizona Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

We’ve gotten all this 4D chess talk about the Cardinals trading back, netting an extra first-rounder from the Vikings, then coming back into the top 10. I mean, they absolutely could do that, but with all the capital they already have (6 picks in the top 90), I really don’t see that as necessary.

Take the generational prospect that immediately helps your franchise QB. Harrison Jr. is that player, don’t leave him up to chance.

5. TRADE – Minnesota Vikings: QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

Now why would the Chargers do this but not Arizona? Well, the former doesn’t already have a second first-rounder for one, nor anywhere near the same amount of draft capital as the latter, and the Vikings will become more desperate with another potential QB suitor right on LA’s heels.

Ultimately, the Vikings will give up at least 3 first-round picks and probably extra to make this trade happen for McCarthy. He’s a strong athlete with distinctive composure and ascending passing traits, and that will be enough for a Minnesota team that currently has nobody with any real potential at the game’s most important position.

6. New York Giants: WR Malik Nabers, Louisiana State

The Giants seem inclined to admit their Daniel Jones failure, but how far will they go to outbid an even more direly situated Vikings team? Do they even like McCarthy? That desire will be the crux of NY’s 2024 draft, but for now let’s say they refuse to give up future first-round assets and stay put.

Nabers is very much 1b to Harrison’s 1a in the talent department, as Nabers’s electric 3-level playmaking ability makes him a lock top-10 selection.

7. Tennessee Titans: OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame

The Titans could be comfortable making a trade because of the preposterous depth of this offensive line class vs. how the needs of other teams in this range align with that surplus.

Staying put at 7 and taking someone like Alt makes perfect sense, but there feels like a good possibility they’d consider moving for the right buyer considering their roster holes and limited draft pick pool. Regardless, Alt is a tailormade left tackle — a huge athlete with refined technique and an advanced understanding of the position for someone so young (only 21).

8. TRADE – Los Angeles Chargers: WR Rome Odunze, Washington

Now here’s where 4D chess gets played. The Chargers can acquire and keep that second first-rounder from the original proposal while likely also keeping their second-round pick to move 4 spots back into the top 10 with this trade.

The Chargers need a new WR1 after jettisoning both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. To ensure that, they ironically hop back ahead of the team that took on Allen (Chicago) to ensure their shot at the draft’s consensus top 3 receiver in Odunze. There’s no word better to describe Odunze than “complete”. He might have the highest floor of any offensive player.

9. TRADE — New Orleans Saints: OT Olu Fashanu, Penn State

The offensive line avalanche starts in earnest around this point, and the Saints need to get on the train after busting on Trevor Penning (who could be trade bait) and finding out bad injury news on stalwart veteran Ryan Ramczyk. Fashanu is a toolsy, mature player whose ceiling is sky-high and much better suited to be a franchise left tackle than Penning ever was.

10. New York Jets: TE Brock Bowers, Georgia

The Jets spent a ton of resources on the offensive line for a reason in the off-season. Aaron Rodgers is a 40-year-old coming off a torn Achilles, and it might honestly be wise to take more offensive linemen to ensure that unit is secure, but he needs better weapons than just Garrett Wilson and a broken Mike Williams.

Unless they trade up, Bowers is the obvious play now. He’s a rare athlete and technician at the tight end position and has as good a chance as any prospect to buck the historical trend of rookie tight ends needing a build-up period.

11. TRADE — Atlanta Falcons: EDGE Dallas Turner, Alabama

This has been one of the chalkiest picks of the first round, and there’s a reason for it. The Falcons were bottom of the barrel in pressure rate last season, and they’ve been the NFL’s worst franchise at pressuring the opposing quarterback over the last 7 seasons.

They need a top pass-rushing prospect, and there’s a strong argument for Turner being that man. They can afford a small trade-down and still get him or Laiatu Latu.

12. TRADE – Jacksonville Jaguars: CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama

A one-year flier on Ronald Darby and the expiring rookie deal of Tyson Campbell should have the Jaguars thinking about the future in their secondary. Getting someone with true No. 1 potential would seriously bolster a weak group, and Arnold fits the bill. The Jags make their move with a pick-starved Broncos team.

13. Las Vegas Raiders: OT J.C. Latham, Alabama

The Raiders are caught in QB purgatory, but it feels like a serious stretch to peg Michael Penix Jr. for them here. Ultimately, reaching to fill needs doesn’t usually work out well, so drafting a mammoth offensive tackle to protect who they do have may be a better choice. Not only does Latham project favorably in pass pro, but his bulldozer-like run blocking should seriously bolster Las Vegas’s run game.

14. TRADE — Chicago Bears: DT Byron Murphy II, Texas

The Bears bait an offensive line-needy team that loves being aggressive and pick up some extra selections in the process (they currently have only 4 total). They fall back 5 spots here and still scoop up a top-tier pass rusher to pair with Montez Sweat. Murphy’s fit with the Bears defense and would be perfect as someone comfortable as a 3-technique pass rusher or run defender.

15. Indianapolis Colts: CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo

The Colts desperately need a No. 1 cover man on the outside to match up with opposing top-dog receivers, and Mitchell screams “alpha” all the way. Toledo might be small-time, but Mitchell is anything but with a great blend of traits, size, and pure athleticism. He’s scheme-versatile and ready to meet the demands of the NFL immediately.

16. TRADE — Buffalo Bills: WR Brian Thomas Jr., Louisiana State

Trading away Stefon Diggs and letting Gabe Davis walk obviously blows massive holes in Buffalo’s offensive personnel, though signing Curtis Samuel does alleviate that somewhat. They require another needle-mover to pair with Samuel, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid.

Thomas is a height-weight-speed guy with inside-outside versatility and 3-level potential. He’ll complement the other Buffalo receivers’ skill sets well as he continues to refine his route running and evolve into a complete target for Josh Allen.

17. TRADE – Denver Broncos: EDGE Laiatu Latu, UCLA

The Broncos’ war chest needs restocking after the Russell Wilson disaster, and that capital needs to come through the draft given the massive dead cap hit they’re dealing with ($80 million over the next two years). Thus, it’s time to trade back and get the best player available from there, and Latu is an excellent choice. The best pure pass rusher in the draft, Latu should be a productive player for any team that signs off on his medical history.

18. Cincinnati Bengals: OL Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State

Protect Joe Burrow.

That’s been the party line for more than 3 years, and it remains the top priority as the team just can’t seem to find the winning combination up front. They did sign a proven veteran in Trent Brown to play right tackle, but it’s only for one year. They could also stand to upgrade at left guard.

Enter Fuaga, who has the combination skill set to kick inside to guard or remain at tackle, where put up some excellent college film as an aggressive, burly ass-kicker. He’s a short- and long-term solution.

19. Los Angeles Rams: WR Xavier Worthy, Texas

The Rams are picking for the first time in the first round since Sean McVay became head coach…that happened back in 2017. So it’s hard to know exactly how they’ll approach this selection. GM Les Snead isn’t afraid to make splashes, and lots of smoke has been blowing about the Rams wanting someone to bolster the offense.

Enter a souped-up version of Tutu Atwell in Worthy – the new fastest man in Scouting Combine history after he recorded a 4.21 40-yard dash. A true field-stretcher, Worthy’s lithe frame is concerning but his absurd speed and consistent hands will likely get some team to bite on him in the first round. Combining him with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua gives the Rams a terrifying collection of weapons.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: OL Graham Barton, Duke

The Steelers are adept at finding receivers outside of the first round, so I’m not sure that they’re going to travel that route here despite talented options available. Their offensive line, especially on the interior, really needs upgrading.

Pittsburgh needs to surround Russell Wilson / Justin Fields with good protection, and they currently have no center on their roster. Enter Graham Barton, someone with across-the-line versatility and fantastic football smarts who projects best at the keystone (get it?) or guard.

21. TRADE – Detroit Lions: EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State

The Lions get aggressive here as they find themselves in the thick of a rarely open competitive window, and their GM Brad Holmes has proven adept at maneuvering the board in recent years. They need to bolster edge rusher opposite star Aidan Hutchinson, and Verse is an excellent choice. Verse presents a high floor with violent power and refined technique.

22. Philadelphia Eagles: OL Troy Fautanu, Washington

The Eagles do not comprise on the offensive line. They invest heavily there and do not hesitate to draft for future needs. Lane Johnson has continued playing at a high level but is closer to the end than ever before, and Fautanu could be drafted to be his heir-apparent.

Even then, he could compete with 2023 draft pick Tyler Steen at right guard for immediate playing time, given his translatable skills. It’s a good pick for the short- and long-term.

23. TRADE – Los Angeles Chargers: OT Amarius Mims, Georgia

The Chargers acquire that precious second 1st rounder and immediately put it to good use by drafting a behemoth right tackle in Mims. The starting experience in college is scant (just 8 starts), but Mims’s sheer size (6-foot-8 and 340 pounds), athleticism, and burgeoning toolkit are going to make him a first-rounder. Bumps will come early as he adjusts to NFL speed, but he’s not as far off as one might think for someone so unseasoned.

24. Dallas Cowboys: OT Patrick Paul, Houston

The Cowboys pride themselves as maintaining a strong offensive line, and they’re vulnerable right now after losing two stalwarts in Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz. Without enough obvious in-house replacements, it seems likely they’re going to address the holes early.

Paul’s name has gained serious traction recently, with he himself even feeling good about being a back-third selection in the first. His long, athletic build screams left tackle, which the Cowboys currently need. This feels like a reach but Dallas values superior athletes in round one.

25. Green Bay Packers: DB Cooper DeJean, Iowa

This feels like another chalky pick but again there’s good reason. Packers adore freak athletes, they adore players from Iowa (see 2023 first pick Lukas Van Ness), and they adore spending first-rounders on defensive players.

That equation seems to strongly favor DeJean. His theoretical position versatility (outside corner and strong safety), ball production, and added kick return proficiency should make him an immediate contributor.

Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OL Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon

You can check out my full 7-round mock draft to see more detail, but the Buccaneers’ need on the interior offensive line is obvious, and Powers-Johnson’s fit with the team is just as obvious.

He’s mean, he’s athletic, and he’s an immediate starter at center or guard.

27. Arizona Cardinals: EDGE Chop Robinson, Penn State

The Cardinals could move up from here, but for now they hold steady with their bevvy of picks and bolster their pass rush. Robinson is all traits and little production right now, but the traits are really good. He’d fit well as a subpackage rusher for a year in Jonathan Gannon’s multi-look scheme before taking on a bigger role in 2025.

28. TRADE — Seattle Seahawks: DL Darius Robinson, Missouri

The Seahawks go with a quantity approach this draft, as they have in the past, and net an extra second-rounder from Buffalo to drop 12 selections. In this spot, Robinson would be a great choice for a multi-versatile scheme like the one new coach Mike Macdonald runs.

Robinson has blown away the pre-draft process with superior athletic testing and a great Senior Bowl showing. He’s got some tweener qualities and only one year of production, but he also seems to fit what Seattle has valued in the past.

29. TRADE – Miami Dolphins: DT Johnny Newton, Illinois

Miami is pick-starved (just four selections after the first round, only one in the top 100), so dropping back a handful of spots to get an extra third-rounder (or something in that ballpark) would help greatly for building their depth. On top of that, moving back still nets them an awesome player here in Newton to help replace the departed Christian Wilkins.

Newton is undersized but makes up for it with exciting quickness and savvy hand usage. Similar to Calijah Kancey last year, teams should be willing to look past size thresholds and consider the undeniable on–field traits.

30. Baltimore Ravens: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama

The Ravens could explore an offensive lineman here, but it’s hard to ignore a ready-made corner ready to start opposite Marlon Humphrey from the get-go. McKinstry is arguably the smoothest, most technically proficient corner in the draft. He’s not particularly fast and perhaps a little too handsy, but he has the skills to translate quickly for a contender.

31. San Francisco 49ers: Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma

The 49ers might be tempted to invest at wide receiver (given Brandon Aiyuk’s possible departure) or cornerback, but the offensive linemen are going fast in this scenario. Colton McKivitz is mediocre at best at right tackle, and Guyton boasts huge upside given his great measurables, athleticism, and enticing high-end reps at right tackle for the Sooners. He needs more time to grow given limited playing time in college, but the reward could be huge.

32. Kansas City Chiefs: CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri

The Super Bowl champion Chiefs relied more on their oppressive secondary last season than they did their usually explosive offense, but they just traded away their best player there in L’Jarius Sneed. They may be inclined to keep that strength mostly intact, and Rakestraw fits their defense perfectly.