Is Puka Nacua set to overtake Cooper Kupp as Rams number one receiver?

Could Puka Nacua take over as the Rams number one wide receiver in the offense?

One of the biggest surprises of last season for the Los Angeles Rams was the rise of fifth round rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua. While there was a lot of hype surrounding him throughout training camp, nobody could have expected Nacua to break the records that he did and be as impressive as he was as as a rookie.

With Nacua’s rise combined with a down season from Cooper Kupp that was hampered by injuries for an aging player, it raises the question of what the future of the two players is in the Rams offense. Nacua and Stafford had an instant connection and that played out throughout the season and playoffs. The rookie wide receiver out of BYU set the rookie receiving yards and receptions record while also setting the record for most receiving yards by a rookie in a playoff game.

The goal for the Rams this offseason was to find young, future building blocks that can help them push forward towards a title in 2024 and 2025. They certainly did that by finding Nacua on day three of the draft. The question now isn’t whether or not Nacua has a future in the Rams offense, but what exactly his ceiling is in the offense moving forward.

There is something to be said about Kupp dealing with injuries last season. However, that has been a case for much of his career. In 2018, Kupp tore his ACL midseason which was the biggest injury of his career. Since then it’s been minor things such as a sprained ankle and wrist in 2020. Kupp missed time in 2022 with a sprained ankle as he missed half the year. This past season, Kupp missed the first four game with a hamstring injury and never truly got right. Against the Seahawks, the Rams star wide receiver once again injured his ankle. That just added to an injury plagued season for Kupp.

When Kupp is healthy, his ceiling is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. With that being said, he’ll turn 31 this summer and the list of injuries that he’s dealt with are starting to pile up. His 5.3 yards after the catch per reception was the lowest of his career. However, what’s more glaring is his 1.77 yards per route run which was 0.18 yards lower than his previous career-low in 2020. He also had just a 91.4 passer rating when targets which was seven points lower than his mark of 98.4 in 2020.

Kupp looks to be on a downward trajectory and the injury history doesn’t help matters. Meanwhile, the Rams have a young wide receiver coming off of a historic rookie season that looks set to take the next step in his career in Nacua.

In the chart below, you can visually see just how dominant Nacua was this past season. Nacua was the most dominant wide receiver against two-high coverages outside of Tyreek Hill and was nearly just as good against single-high. With that level of success, it can be argued that Nacua’s next step is solidifying himself among the best wide receivers in the NFL.

To add to that, Nacua was by far the better receiver between him and Kupp last season in ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics. Nacua had an overall score of 60 compared to Kupp’s 48. Nacua had a higher open score of 53, catch score of 57 and YAC score of 64 than Kupp.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that Nacua is better than Kupp, but it does show how much more effective he was in the offense. Kupp has been a YAC monster for the Rams in the past. From 2020-23, his YAC score was 60 which ranked eighth in the NFL over that time period. This past season, that dropped to 10 points down to 50. Now it’s Nacua who had a YAC score of 64 which ranked eighth in the NFL last season.

This offseason, the Rams will be looking for a player to “take the torch” from Aaron Donald on defense as they move into their next phase. Unintentionally, they may have found that player last offseason for Cooper Kupp in Puka Nacua. In the McVay offense, there isn’t necessarily have a true number one receiver. Even with Woods and Kupp, it was more of a 1a and 1b. However, going forward, that 1a player may end up being Nacua.