Grading NFL QBs Heading Into 2024 Season

Why there is optimism for Kyler Murray to elevate his game this season

Here is one attempt to grade the 2024 QBs in the NFL. Have a look:

Right off the bat, what issues do you have with some of the QBs in these grade tiers?

For example, while it’s pretty much a slam dunk to place Patrick Mahomes in a category all his own (especially when one factors in his elite post-season QBRs), do you believe that Josh Allen has separated himself from the QBs shown in the A tier below him?

ROTB Poll:

As we know, an exercise like this —- is highly speculative.

Which is why it would be an interesting endeavor to see how these QBs rank via their QBRs.

If you are not sure how or why the QBR grade is considered by many to be the fairest way to measure QB efficiency, here’s an explanation as to how the QBR scores are conceived:

Total QBR: An explainer – ESPN – Stats & Info- ESPN

Lets’ take a look at the regular season and post-season QBRs for the last 3 seasons.

2021: Regular Season:

2021: Post-Season

2022: Regular Season:

2022: Post-Season:

2023: Regular Season:

2023: Post-Season:

Regular Season Best and Worst QBRs:

• Patrick Mahomes —- 80.3 (2021) —- 63.1 (2023)
• Josh Allen —- 76.8 (2020) —- 49.4 (2019)
• Justin Herbert —- 70.9 (2021) —- 60.2 (2022)
• Joe Burrow —- 60.8 (2022) —- 51.6 (2023)
• C.J. Stroud —- 57.5 (2023)
• Dak Prescott —- 73.1 (2020) —- 55.2 (2018)
• Lamar Jackson —- 83.0 (2019) —- 56.8 (2021)
• Matthew Stafford —- 69.3 (2021) —- 44.7 (2014)
• Kirk Cousins —- 67.8 (2015) —- 52.3 (2022)
• Brock Purdy —- 72.8 (2023) —- 67.5 (2022)
• Jalen Hurts —- 68.3 (2022) —- 54.6 (2021)
• Baker Mayfield —- 65.5 (2020) —- 40.9 (2021)
• Aaron Rodgers —- 83.8 (2011) —- 41.3 (2022)
• Kyler Murray —- 63.2 (2021) —- 47.2 (2023)
• Tua Tagolaivoa —- 70.6 (2022) —- 55.7 (2021)
• Trevor Lawrence —- 56.1 (2023) —- 56.1 (2022)
• Justin Fields —- 56.3 (2022) —- 46.1 (2023)
• Geno Smith —- 62.8 (2022) —- 59.5 (2023)
• Jordan Love —- 62,8 (2023)
• Russell Wilson —- 71.5 (2019) —- 38.7 (2022)
• Derek Carr —- 64.3 (2020) —- 48.5 (2018)

80s Club:

• Mahomes —- 2021
• Jackson —- 2019
• Rodgers —- 2011

70s Club:

• Allen —- 2020
• Prescott —- 2020
• Purdy —- 2023
• Tagovailoa —- 2022
• Wilson —- 2019

65-69 Club:

• Stafford —- 2021
• Cousins —- 2015
• Hurts —- 2022
• Mayfield —- 2020

60-64 Club:

• Burrow —- 2022
• Murray —- 2021
• Smith —- 2022
• Love —- 2023
• Carr —- 2020

50s Club:

• Stroud —- 2023
• Lawrence —- 2023
• Fields —- 2022

Factors in creating 5 QB Tiers:

• If a QB’s highest QBR is not from one of the last 3 years, then he gets knocked down a tier.
• If a QB was out this season, he gets knocked down another tier.
• If a QB has had subpar years back-to-back, he gets knocked down a tier. i
• If a QBs QBR is higher in the playoffs, he gets bumped up a tier.

Based on Regular Season QBRs (over past 3 years) and recent Post-Season success:

Tier 1:

• Mahomes

Tier 2:

• Allen
• Prescott
• Purdy
• Tagovailoa

Tier 3:

• Stafford
• Cousins
• Hurts
• Burrow
• Love
• Stroud
• Rodgers

Tier 4

• Mayfield
• R. Wilson
• Smith
• Lawrence
• Murray

Tier 5:

• Fields
• Howell
• Minschew
• Dobbs
• O’Donnell
• Ridder
• Pickett
• Jones
• Young
• Z. Wilson

ROTB Poll:

Kyler Murray’s QBRs by Game in 2023:

• ATL —- 56.3 —- 25-23 W
• @ HOU —- 45.4 —- 21-18 L
• LAR —- 37.1 —- 37-14 L
• @ PIT —- 52,4 —- 24-10 W
• SF —- 21.7 —- 45-29 L
• @ CHI —- 20.4 —- 27-16 L
• @ PHI —- 85.6 —- 35-31 W
• SEA —- 53.1 —- 21-20 L

Reasons for Optimism for Kyler Murray and Cardinals’ offense in 2024:

• Running game was top 10 this past season and should be even stronger the year.
• Most of the offensive starters are returning.
• This should be Kyler’s second season in a row giving a full commitment to the off-season program.
• This should be Kyler’s first on-field OTAs since his rookie year in 2019.
• Second year in new offense.
• Kyler displayed flashes of brilliance upon his return and made progress in developing chemistry with Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch and Elijah Higgins.
• His gem versus PHI has planted the seeds for him and the entire offense to blossom this year.
• It appears as of right now that the Cardinals are intending to use their 1st two draft picks on a WR and T.

ROTB Poll:

Your thoughts?