After the initial flurry of signings, free agency seems poised to take a major pause until early May, after the 2024 NFL Draft concludes.
The NFL’s 2024 league year and the free agency period are now more than two weeks old and, as usual, the big money flew around early before quieting down considerably. When the biggest signings around the league the last few days are the Packers’ former TE3/H-back moving on and a veteran kicker coming to Green Bay to provide competition for a second-year player, it’s clear that the action is well and truly quiet.
Some of this may be due to GMs being out on the Pro Day circuit, but that didn’t stop them from making deals over the past two weeks. Instead, what this likely signals is that teams are ready to put a pause on major free agent acquisitions until after the 2024 NFL Draft.
Take the Packers, for example: they landed the big fish in the safety market, Xavier McKinney, who was their number one free agent target and will fill one of the two starting safety spots this season. But the team still has questions at the other spot, where there are still several high-quality players available on the open market. (They also have a need at linebacker, but there are far fewer viable free agent options still out there.)
However, there has been little to no movement among free agent safeties since the early flurry of moves, leaving players like Justin Simmons, Jamal Adams, Eddie Jackson, and others still looking for new homes. In all likelihood, the Packers — and other teams — will come back to those players in a few weeks, but only after finding out what young blood they can bring into their organizations through the draft.
If the Packers find another do-it-all safety — say a Cooper DeJean from Iowa (if they see him moving from cornerback) or a Javon Bullard from Georgia — maybe they don’t need to try to bring another high-level veteran in and can instead look into signing a depth piece or two. But if they don’t come out of the first two days with a safety, perhaps a run at Simmons could be in the cards.
It’s a bit of a game of chicken that teams play this time of year, trying to anticipate who will still be available after the draft as well as what prospects they may be able to select in late April. But it also ends up being a waiting game for those players, one that all parties seem content to play for now.
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It appears that Brian Gutekunst is content to stand pat with the Xavier McKinney signing, at least until he sees what the draft brings. It appears likely that most teams will wait until after the draft to bring in remaining veteran free agents, waiting to see what needs they can fill before committing significant money to another signing.
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On that note, Minnesota safety Tyler Nubin is one of the public’s most popular picks for the Packers in both round one and round two, according to data from Pro Football Focus’ mock draft simulator. Notable, however, is that Duke OL Graham Barton is actually the most frequent pick for Green Bay at #25.
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Is the fact that the Packers have five top-100 picks a sign that they want to move up in round one? That’s one writer’s opinion, as he sees Green Bay packaging picks 25 and 91 to move up to 21 and get a 5th-rounder back as well.
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