We’ve had a week to digest what happened in the NFL Draft. How are we feeling?
A draft is like a big meal: Good or bad, delectable or gristly, you really need time to digest it. We’ve now been chewing on these Atlanta Falcons picks for close to a week, and it’s time to weigh in on it with our favorite selections, least favorite selections, and the always popular and always not-particularly-meaningful draft grades.
Once you’ve read ours, feel free to to share yours, especially if your perception has changed over the past week.
Dave Choate
Favorite pick: DL Brandon Dorlus
Least favorite pick: LB JD Bertrand
Snap grade: B-
This one’s tough for me because I like all the individual picks to some degree—with Bertrand and Washington I A) have barely seen either play and B) they’re late round choices, so you can only complain so much—but the overall class addresses a narrow set of needs and places a premium bet on the future. I do think Penix will be terrific if this coaching staff is worth their salt because he’s already a genuinely talented, excellent fit for the offense. I think Orhorhoro will thrive in Atlanta, Dorlus and Trice will be really useful players, and McLellan and Logue can be extremely valuable reserves.
I just don’t know what that all adds up to. Will the Falcons be good enough and deep enough beyond quarterback and their defensive line to make up for the fact that they hardly touched other positions in the draft, and even free agency? Will Penix hit and will Orhorhoro and Trice reach their potential, making this class the kind of post-ridicule success 2016 proved to be? The fact that we could be three years away from seeing Penix even start, much less know how good he truly is, means a case of nerves is a natural reaction to thinking about where we’re headed here.
The Falcons drafted good players, which is ultimately what matters, and the hope is that this unorthodox class will pay off in a major way. Atlanta is asking for us to trust that this is the right plan, though, and after the past six years that trust is something that has to be earned.
Matt Chambers
Favorite pick: DL Brandon Dorlus
Least favorite pick: EDGE Bralen Trice
Snap grade: D+
I’ll preface this poor draft grade with the practical perspective that a general manager drafting best player available will typically have lower draft grades — we’re all looking at what holes the team filled. Terry Fontenot suggests he follows this draft strategy, grabbing the most talented player vs. forcing bad value to fill need. You are really stuck waiting out the drafts to see if these players prove to overperform their draft positions.
I’ll also say I feel like I’ve been doing backflips for years trying to justify strategies and picks. Perhaps Arthur Smith was shown the door in part because fans have been told the team was ready to win now… then later told it was clearly a rebuild after the team didn’t win. Smith is gone but I’m still struggling to understand the vision. I’m a fan of Michael Penix, and understand the team has to avoid a Marcus Mariota/Desmond Ridder disaster again, but the selection is still mindboggling. Is Kirk Cousins a $100 million insurance policy that Penix is gone at 8?
Even more concerning is Atlanta’s grabbing players with connections to new coaches, including two from Washington. Are these really best players available or just players Jimmy Lake was familiar with? If Fontenot is following best player available, you have to be concerned he didn’t address any needs other than quarterback in free agency. If he isn’t following best player available, you have to be concerned with asset allocation and filling needs. Atlanta still has major holes at EDGE, WR2, and likely CB2. Further, the expectation should be some younger players are finally coming into their own. That still isn’t happening, with many prior drafts looking pretty mediocre.
It’s year four and the Falcons have given me no indication or reason to believe the team is heading in the right direction.
Cory Woodroof
Favorite pick: EDGE Bralen Trice
Least favorite pick: WR Casey Washington
Snap grade: B+
The Michael Penix pick, and the immense risks and rewards attached to it, will be impossible to fully process until we see how it impacts the Falcons now and later. It’s still bewildering to even be having this discussion after the Kirk Cousins contract, but it’s also fully within the realm of possibility that the Falcons made the correct decision last Thursday. It’s just up to them to prove their decision right. I’m only at the keyboard.
As for the rest of the draft, adding three defensive linemen the Falcons clearly like and have a plan for is hard to hate. If you’re grading the draft in a vacuum, the combined impact of Ruke Orhorhoro, Bralen Trice and Brandon Dorlus could eclipse the immediate impact you would’ve gotten from a single first-round defender. That’s as promising a lineup of young pass-rushers as the team has drafted in ages. If all of those guys hit at least to moderate success, this draft will be a clear win for the side of the ball. However, we’ve got a ways to go before we can start that discussion because of the nature of how this works.
Penix will ultimately determine a ton of about this franchise’s future. If he’s the guy and they get good defensive linemen out of this, this is an all-time Falcons draft. If he doesn’t live up to the team’s clear expectations, it won’t really matter how good these defensive linemen are for this front office. They won’t be drafting much longer in Atlanta if Penix isn’t the answer.
Also, I have absolutely nothing against Casey Washington and really don’t know anything about him other than he played at Illinois, but someone related to Jerry Rice (his son, Brenden) was right there when the Falcons picked in the sixth round, and surely that guy was worth taking a flier on for the family connection alone, right? C’est la vie.
Kevin Knight
Favorite pick: EDGE Bralen Trice
Least favorite pick: The trade-up for DT Ruke Orhorhoro
Snap grade: C
I think the Falcons had an opportunity to hit a home run in this draft, and I believe the team thinks they did. The issue is we won’t know for a long time about eighth overall pick Michael Penix Jr., and that will place a cloud over this entire evaluation. You’ve heard all the arguments about the logic of the Penix pick, but to summarize: it’s a bold vision for the future, and it’s very risky. Drafting a quarterback in the top-10 is always a gamble, but drafting a quarterback to sit for a minimum of two seasons at age 24 and with multiple season-ending injuries in his past is one of the biggest gambles I’ve ever seen this team take. At the very least, it won’t be boring!
If not for the second-round trade up, I think I’d be happier about this draft. I simply hate giving up that much draft capital for a project defensive lineman—even though I was a pretty big fan of Ruke Orhorhoro. It’s clear that a run on defensive tackles was coming, so the Falcons may very well have been right that Orhorhoro would’ve been gone by pick 43. I just think if you’re making a move that big, you go get the falling first-rounder in Jer’Zhan Newton. We still have to see how these two adjust to the league, but I’ll be pretty shocked if Orhorhoro has a better NFL career than Newton. Still, the Falcons could’ve gotten a much-needed secondary player or wide receiver with that second third-rounder, and that stings.
After the second round, I like pretty much everything about this draft. Bralen Trice will challenge for a starting role and can give the Falcons a lot of pressure off the edge, although I wonder if he’ll ever be more than a 4-6 sack guy and plus run defender. Still, for a third-round pick, you’re pretty happy with that. Brandon Dorlus is great value on Day 3 and could carve out a role as an interior pass rusher as a rookie. JD Bertrand’s selection seemed a little early, but I’m a big fan of drafting Day 3 linebackers in general. I would’ve liked to see the team package two of the sixth-rounders to move up a bit for either Malik Washington or Johnny Wilson, but that’s a minor quibble. Jase McClellan has legitimate upside and could be a quality RB3, while Casey Washington could be a KhaDarel Hodge understudy. Zion Logue is definitely a project, but I like his traits as a developmental nose tackle this late in the draft.
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