For every starter to be found in the draft, there are other players just fighting to play.
Over the next several weeks, fans will imagine their teams drafting a host of new starters. Draft gurus will talk up elite prospects and use player comps naming men who are familiar to fantasy football players and casual viewers of the league. However, there will probably only be 60 or 70 guys drafted in any given year who actually go on to become regular starters for their teams. Those men are worthy of the attention they receive, but that’s not who this article is about.
This is an article celebrating another 70 guys. The Grabowskis.
From 2011-2018, there were 569 players drafted who did not even see 40 starts in their first five years–but they did play in at least 40 games. That works out to be 71 players per draft. More players, on average, than there are regular starters in a draft. Some of these players grew into starters over time, but some of them were perennial rotational players. Special teamers. Situational edge rushers, backup guards, and second tight ends. Fullbacks.
Comparing the games these players appear in to the games they start, they average more than +40 in “games played” versus “games started” on their stat sheets. They probably take the field in an average of 57 or 58 games in their first five years. They play. These are typically not just players who are hanging around on a roster because the GM drafted them, either. For the half of the players (34) in this group drafted from 2011-2014, the average career length to date has been more than 6 years–well past the original contract outlined in the CBA. These guys are reliable contributors. They are the players who, candidly, grind.
By some considerations, these players are disappointments. They aren’t the stars that armchair GMs dream of finding. Some will even call them busts, but that label says more about the limitations of draft language than it does about the players themselves. For players taken in the fourth round at pick #120-125 (the average position for these men, depending on which “average” you want to use), calling them a bust is to miss what they have done. They’ve made it.
Right now, the Rome Odunzes and the Dallas Turners are flying up draft boards. Xavier Worthy’s 40-time is going to earn him second, third, and fourth looks from teams that were on the bubble about him. However, in each draft class for every starter trying to make the Pro Bowl there is also going to be at least one guy trying to do his job and do it well. Make the three tackles that game his team needs, catch the two passes in relief when the starting wide receiver needs a breather, or execute the coverage on the kickoff return to get an extra six yards on that one play.
Lunch-pail pros. Grabowskis. Grinders. Blue-collar athletes, if you will.
While I’m sure every team hopes to find nothing but starters, that’s not how it works. They won’t make as many headlines or mock drafts, but for 32 clubs around the country, finding a few more of them could make the difference. When watching highlight reels or studying draft coverage or picking a player on a simulator, it’s important to remember that in between the so-called steals and supposed busts, there is a large group of players who are going to make a difference for their teams in the margins. In rotation. Snap by snap.
Whatever decision is made regarding Caleb Williams or Cooper DeJean or Joe Alt, there are other decisions to be made as well. If the Chicago Bears are really going to turn the corner, it is going to take more than the right decision at #1 or #9. It’s going to be the cumulative impact of putting together a team of more than just stars named Smith (or Williams). It’ll take at least a few Grabowskis.
The job isn’t over after Day 1.
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