DraftBot’s Instant Grades for the Commanders’ 2024 Draft – Day 2, 3 and Final Grade

This is what it looks like with adults in charge

Continuing from where we left off yesterday, the DraftBot has agreed to grade the Commanders picks in the 2024 draft. It took some convincing, because the DraftBot’s hybrid biological/synthetic neural network processor is highly logical, and has only recently started to experience things that we take for granted, such as entertainment.

For the proper inducements, the DraftBot agreed to take on this task, on the understanding that it is seldom possible to meaningfully evaluate draft decisions for at least two or three years when the players involved have had time to adjust to the NFL and reveal whether they were good choice or not. It accepts that this is just for fun, even though it is not entirely sure what that means.

Culminating an intensive big data mining exercise to identify the decision making patterns associated with positive draft outcomes, the DraftBot published The Draft Directives. The Directives detail the principles and practices associated with optimal drafting performance, and will serve as the basis for the DraftBot’s grades.

The DraftBot’s grading scale is as follows:

A+ Decision making delivering extraordinary value, on a level not seen every draft

A Significantly better than expected value achieved

B Expected value achieved

C Value below expectations

D Very disappointing

Rivera The kind of decision making that gets people fired

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[WHY IS THIS HERE TWICE?]

A+ Decision making delivering extraordinary value, on a level not seen every draft

A Significantly better than expected value achieved

B Expected value achieved

C Value below expectations

D Very disappointing

Rivera The kind of decision making that gets people fired

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A Foreword from the DraftBot

Before I commence with the individual grades I would like to share my overall impressions of the Commanders Draft, and the results of my textual analysis of the Hogs Haven Day 2 comment threads.

Adam Peters’ front office decision making was exemplary, adhering to best practice principles and delivery very good value for the draft capital he had to work with. After fulfilling the Prime Directive on Day 1, the player selections on Day 2 were directed toward raising the team’s talent ceiling (Third Directive) by picking the best players available.

In several cases, his selections evoked negative reactions from many commenters, with complaints that the picks should have been used on positions of greater need. I find such comments curious. My research has revealed that the readership was extremely dissatisfied with the state in which the previous regime left the roster. Yet, many readers would like the new GM to repeat his predecessor’s mistake of passing up superior talents to reach for players to address immediate needs, which is what led the roster to its current state.

There is a huge disparity in talent between the teams which regularly compete for championships and those like the Commanders under previous ownership. Differences in drafting behavior are a major contributing factor.

Every time a GM like Ron Rivera passes on a premium draft prospect to take a player at a position of need, that player falls down the draft order to teams with GMs who understand the importance of drafting the best player available. Over time, teams with GMs who follow the Draft Directives accumulate premium talent, while teams that divert draft resources to address immediate needs accumulate roster holes.

Adam Peters explained the reasoning behind Washington’s player selections in a press conference after Day 2. It is worth a listen if you are still puzzled by any of the player selections. He is very informative.

Now, let us consider how his team performed on the final two days of the draft.

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Instant Draft Grades – Day 2

Consensus ranks up to 100 are from The Athletic’s final Consensus Board. Consensus ranks higher than 100 are from Arif Hasan’s 2024 Consensus Big Board.

Round 2, Pick 36

Jer’Zahn Newton DT, Illinois | Grade: A

Consensus Rank: 23

DraftBot Big Board Rank: 22

Best Players Available: Newton, significantly ahead of all others

MattInBrisVegas profiled Newton in his piece on Draft Prospects Who Arrive Violently, which detailed players who would fit with the Commanders new defensive philosophy:

Newton is another prospect who is likely to fall between Washington’s first two picks. If he does somehow land with them, Whitt will be getting a compact muscular DT with the athleticism and quickness you’d expect from a defensive end and a relentless attacking mindset on the field.

In his press conference, Peters revealed that the Commanders’ draft room was amazed that Newton was still available at pick 36, since they had a first round grade on him. No other player was even close. They even considered trading up to get him as he slid toward their pick.

Despite complaints from fans who were hoping for him to select CB Cooper DeJean or reach for a lower rated OT, Newton does, in fact, address a significant need for the Commander’s defense. Quinn’s defense in Dallas used a rotation of five defensive linemen who got significant playing time in every game. The Commanders’ roster prior to this pick only had three defensive linemen who grade above replacement level. Adding Newton potentially gives the Commanders one of the most formidable defensive fronts in the league.

This pick exemplifies how the best GMs in the business build championship rosters. By taking the best player on his board, instead of reaching lower to address a more pressing need, Peters adds a second first-round talent to the roster, achieving value above expectations considering that the Commanders only had one first round pick. This is what the Third Directive is all about.

Round 2, Pick 40

Trade with Eagles | Grade: B

Eagles Receive: 40, 78, 152

Commanders Receive: 50, 53, 161

This trade moved one of the Commanders’ second picks up to the second round, while dropping their second and fifth round picks in the respective rounds. According to the Rich Hill trade value chart, the Commanders came out ahead by 12 points, equivalent to the value of pick 148 in the fifth round.

The trade falls short of fulfilling the Seventh Directive (Seek to Accumulate Top 100 Picks). However it follows the spirit of the directive to seek opportunities to add more draft capital.

There is an issue with this trade. At the time it was made, CB Cooper DeJean had fallen to the Commanders’ pick. DeJean was another player with a first-round grade on most analysts boards (Consensus Rank: 24, DraftBot: 19). We don’t know how he ranked on the Commanders’ board, which is most critical. However, Peters acknowledged that DeJean is a good player, whom the Commanders will have to face twice a year.

With the Day 2 picks exchanged in this trade, the Eagles selected DeJean and safety Calen Bullock, and the Commanders selected CB Mike Sainristil and TE Ben Sinnott. As of this writing, it is not possible to judge which team came out ahead.

Allowing a premium talent to go to a division rival, instead of adding him to the Commanders roster, could be viewed as violating the corollary of the Third Directive (Pick the Best Player Available). However, the trade may eventually fulfill the main principle of the Third Directive (Raise the Talent Ceiling) if Sainristil and Sinnott both turn out as premium players.

Round 2, Pick 50 (Acquired from Eagles)

Photo by CFP/Getty Images

Mike Sainristil, CB | Grade: B+

Consensus Rank: 60

DraftBot Big Board Rank: 63

Other Players Available: WR Adonai Mitchell (CR 29), Ennis Rakestraw Jr (35), WR Troy Franklin (37), WR Roman Wilson (43), LB Payton Wilson (44), C Zach Frazier (45), LB Junior Colson (48), EDGE Chris Braswell (50), S Javon Bullard (51), TE Ja’Tavion Sanders (52), Kingsley Suamataia (53), Marshawn Kneeland (55)

The Commanders picked Sainstril around the range where the media expected him to go. A difference of 10 picks is within the margin of error at this point in the draft.

Three available players had dropped significantly from their projected positions: WR Adonai Mitchell, CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr., and WR Troy Franklin. Franklin had obviously been overrated by the media, because he eventually dropped several rounds, along with TE Ja’Tavion Sanders. Mitchell and Frazier were both selected directly after the Commanders’ pick, indicating that they had reached their value points on at least two teams’ boards.

Sainristil is a nickel corner with explosive traits and exceptional ball skills, reflecting his previous role as a wide receiver. In addition to his on the field traits, he was a leader of Michigan’s national championship team. From Peters’ comments in the presser, it is a safe bet that he was one of Washington’s Gold Helmet prospects. These prospects exhibit exemplary leadership, intelligence and on field performance and frequently outperform their draft status.

This pick fills a gap in the skillsets to help adapt Washington’s secondary to Joe Whitt’s concepts and is therefore a good example of Scouting Prospects Against the Roster (Fourth Directive). The previous regime used safeties flexing to slot coverage; whereas Whitt uses a full time slot CB. Sainristil is very effective at generating takeaways, which is something that Whitt emphasizes. He intercepted 6 passes last season and ran 2 back for TDs. He is also the best secondary blitzer in the draft class, according to ESPN, providing further alignment with the new coaching staff’s belief in generating pressure from all over the formation. Over the past 2 seasons he has generated 4 sacks and 20 pressures.

Sainristil only switched to CB two years ago and is still refining his skillset. Even so, he has a good chance to beat out Quan Martin for the starting slot CB spot this season, unless Quan shows dramatic improvement in coverage. Sainristil is widely cited as a player who might outperform his draft status. The grade for this pick will upgrade to A if Sainristil overtakes Martin for the starting position as a rookie.

Round 2, Pick 53 (Acquired from Eagles)

Photo by Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images

Ben Sinnott, TE | Grade: B+

Consensus Rank: The Athletic – NR, Arif Hasan – 83

DraftBot Big Board Rank: 98

Other Players Available: WR Troy Franklin (37), WR Roman Wilson (43), LB Payton Wilson (44), LB Junior Colson (48), Chris Braswell (50), Javon Bullard (51), Ja’Tavion Sanders (52), Kingsley Suamataia (53), Marshawn Kneeland (55)

Sinnott was profiled by Hogs Haven’s Bobby Gould:

He was used in a variety of roles at K-State, including as an in-line blocker and a receiver out of the slot, and was a critical cog in their offense. He’s also been described as a “dominant blocker in space, who will catch everything he should catch.” Sinnott is likely to have a significant impact on special teams as a contributor, and one benefit is that he will likely enter the NFL with a high floor. He’s ceiling is still yet to be seen.

Bobby G’s profile presciently drew comparisons to 49ers’ All-Pro players TE George Kittle and FB Kyle Juszczyk. Adam Peters made the same comparisons in his comments after the draft, and my creator MattInBrisVegas began to weep when he heard the words come out of Peters’ mouth. I believe he was happy.

Evaluating this pick is challenging for me. The media analysts from whom I take my lead had Ja’Tavion Sanders rated much higher than Sinnott at TE. Obviously, Peters had them the other way around because he had the option to pick either one. Peters’ player comps explain why. I must defer to the expertise of the man who picked Kittle in the fifth round of his first draft with the 49ers, and have made a note to myself to get a real scouting department so I don’t have this problem in future.

Picking Sinnott potentially impacts the Commanders roster in a few ways. Right away, he provides an athletic, big receiving target and downfield blocker for rookie QB, Jayden Daniels. Like most college TEs, he may need to develop more strength to handle blocking duties near the line of scrimmage. In a short time, he may provide a succession plan for starter Zach Ertz, who is on a one year contract. As such, he has good potential to elevate the roster’s ceiling (Third Directive) and is well scouted against the roster (Fourth Directive).

Round 3, Pick 67

Brandon Coleman, OT | Grade: B+

Consensus Rank: 114

DraftBot Big Board Rank: 146

Other Players Available: WR Troy Franklin (37), WR Roman Wilson (43), LB Payton Wilson (44), LB Junior Colson (48), G Christian Haynes (61), G Cooper Beebe (63)

Fans were clamoring for the Commanders to draft an OT, and they finally got their wish to kick off the third round. While many analysts think Coleman will play guard in the pros, Adam Peters indicated that he will get his first opportunity at tackle. Either way, this pick should mollify the draft-for-need hecklers.

Like Sinnott before him, Coleman was picked ahead of the media consensus projection. There are a few possible reasons that Adam Peters many have rated him higher for the Commanders than the generic media consensus. Here is how dg28 described him in his Hogs Haven draft profile:

The Horned Frogs’ run to the 2022 National Championship Game was led by the play of the offensive line where Coleman started the entire season at left tackle. He was named a team captain in 2023 and played both left tackle and left guard, earning second-team All-Big 12 honors and a Senior Bowl invitation. An explosive athlete, Coleman was listed on Bruce Feldman’s 2023 Freaks List.

With experience at both guard spots and left tackle, Brandon Coleman is a versatile lineman that will be give the Commanders flexibility along the offensive line. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of him playing tackle in the NFL, but many see his ceiling being highest at guard. With his quick feet and ability to be stout at the point of attack, he can contribute in any blocking scheme. If the Commanders are looking to add an athletic offensive lineman on Day 3, Coleman might be the best candidate.

Bruce Feldman’s Freak List entry adds:

The 6-6, 320-pounder who was born in Virginia but grew up in Berlin, Germany, moved back to the U.S. in 2016. He has emerged as a top NFL prospect. He started 15 games at left tackle and was rated by PFF as the third-highest graded returning offensive lineman in the Big 12. Coleman, unrated by the recruiting sites coming out of high school, has an impressive 35-inch vertical jump and regularly runs 18 MPH. He squats 600 pounds, benches 400 and power-cleans 375.

Coleman’s 9.69 Relative Athletic Score at OT ranks fifth in the draft class.

Coleman adds much needed depth to the Commanders offensive line, with elite physical traits providing upside to potentially develop as a starting OT. In the likely event he is not ready to push the starters for playing time this season, he has another chance to earn playing time early at left guard.

This pick raises the talent ceiling (Third Directive) by upgrading the Commanders’ anemic OL depth pipeline. In doing so, it provides another example of scouting prospects against the roster (Fourth Directive). Is pick 67 too early for depth players? Not at all. At this point in the draft, players at premium positions with starting grades are almost unheard of. Drafting a player with eventual starting potential at a premium position is consistent with the Fifth Directive mandate to factor position value into draft decisions.

Was there an element of reaching for need, in violation of the Third Directive? Unlikely, since Coleman does not profile as an early starter. He is a developmental prospect with high upside. I would have opted for LB Payton Wilson as a much higher rated prospect or Cooper Beebe at this pick, but don’t have enough confidence in my board to question Peters’ rating of Coleman. I must do something about that before the next draft.

Round 3, Pick 100

Photo by Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Luke McCaffrey, WR | Grade: B

Consensus Rank: 46

DraftBot Big Board Rank: 122

Other Players Available: WR Troy Franklin (37), CB T.J. Tampa (57), S Jaden Hicks (67), RB Jaylen Wright, WR Javon Baker (85), CB Khyree Jackson (98), WR Malik Washington (99), CB Cam Hart (100)

I ranked McCaffrey higher for the Commanders than the media consensus, because he scouts well against the current roster.

WR Troy Franklin was by far the highest rated WR on my board at this point, but it is not my role to question the player ratings, only the decision making. MattInBrisVegas was pounding a table to pick Malik Washington – strange behavior. I worry about him. I had McCaffrey ranked 22 places later for the Commanders, which is within the margin of error at this point in the draft. Therefore, he was taken around the range where I expected, notwithstanding the fact I expected Franklin to go much earlier.

There were three available players who seemed to align well with the Commanders’ new direction on defense at this pick, so the choice of a WR did come as a surprise. Without access to Peters’ board to know for sure, all we can infer is that this was a case of the Commanders rating of the player (Third Directive) taking precedence over team fit (Fourth Directive).

Peters’ comments after the draft suggest that intangible traits factored heavily in the Commanders’ evaluation of McCaffrey, which may have caused them to rate him higher than the media had. At the same time, concerns about ability to stick with NFL receivers may have lowered Tampa’s ratings, while Khyree Jackson has character flags, and 100 may have been seen as too early for Hart, who is very raw. Hicks remains a mystery, since he profiles as a Dan Quinn DB.

The selection of McCaffrey with this pick gives the Commanders’ rookie QB another big receiving target with a good chance to earn playing time early as a big slot receiver, where he faces little competition. In that respect, Peters earns points for finding value by scouting the prospect against the roster (Fourth Directive).

On balance, the points gained for selecting a player with a chance to earn starting time as a rookie offset any lingering questions about failure to optimize position value by picking a boundary CB this late in the draft. McCaffrey is fair value at the end of Day 3.

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Instant Draft Grades – Day 3

After the fourth round, consensus ranks become more or less meaningless, so I have not listed them for the Commanders’ remaining selections.

Round 5, Pick 139

Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

Jordan Magee, LB | Grade: B

Other players available: EDGE Austin Booker, CB Cam Hart, WR/PR Anthony Gould, CB Caelen Carson, C Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, IOL Hunter Nourzad, S Kitan Oladapo, EDGE Brennan Jackson, EDGE Mohamed Kamara

Magee was not on my draft board due to an oversight by my assistants. It is clear from Lance Zierlein’s draft profile what appealed to Commanders’ defensive coaching staff, and also why he was available in the fifth round:

There are occasions when it can be tough to discern between Magee’s instincts and his willingness to take aggressive tracks downhill at the first sight of an opening. He will void run-fit responsibilities at times but will also make more plays near the line of scrimmage. Magee lacks ideal size but plays with good strength and aggression and is able to bounce off bigger bodies to find his way to tackle tries from challenging angles. He has a good early trigger, but his sideline-to-sideline range is average. Magee needs to prove he can make plays with better discipline in order to become more than a solid backup with special teams value.

Magee was Zierlein’s fifth ranked LB in the draft class. He is a highly athletic LB on the smaller side. His 9.60 Relative Athletic Score ranks 5^th among LBs in the draft class. He has the character and intelligence to appeal to Peters, and the on-field aggression to make Whitt happy. If coaching can correct his tendency to break discipline, he has the tools to develop as starting weak side LB, providing a succession option for Jamin Davis. If not, he may reach his floor as a backup and special teamer, which is still good value at this point in the draft.

The question becomes whether there was better value to be had with other available players (Third Directive). Arguments could be made for players at defensive back, EDGE defender and interior offensive line. MattInBrisVegas was once again pounding that poor table, this time for safety Kitan Oladapo (Oregon State). His protestations notwithstanding, no available player stands out as clearly superior to Magee.

This part of the draft falls into the domain of the Ninth Directive: Take Chances on Players with Latent Potential and Special Teams Value. The gist of the directive is to take players late who have potential to develop into starters and/or core special teamers. Magee’s elite athletic profile ticks both boxes.

Magee adds depth at LB, which had been nonexistent, thereby satisfying the Third Directive (Raise the Talent Ceiling) and the Fourth Directive (Scout Against the Roster). His selection represents fair value at this draft position.

Round 5, Pick 161

Dominique Hampton, S | Grade: A

Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images

Other players available CB Caelen Carson, S Kitan Oladapo, DT Mekhi Wingo, OL Sataoa Laumea, EDGE Javon Solomon, OT Christian Jones, RB Rasheen Ali, WR Bub Means, WR Brenden Rice

Hampton is another player profiled in MattInBrisVegas’ roundup of Draft Prospects Who Arrive Violently:

Hampton’s build, athletic profile and demeanor in coverage is cut from the cloth of the original Legion of Boom. And like most of Quinn’s original Boomers, he should be available later in the draft.

Hampton has imposing size and incredible length (6-7 wingspan). His best role is as a split safety, where he uses good play recognition and instincts to make plays on the ball. And of course, the reason he is on this list is that he outmuscles receivers to make contested catches and delivers punishing tackles on receivers and ball carriers.

He will need to improve his angles to the ball and clean up his technique in coverage and run support to compete for starting time. Until then, he profiles as an ideal special teamer.

Two other available DBs also seem to fit the profile to some extent: CB Caelen Carson and S Kitan Oladapo. Of the three, Hampton’s superior athletic profile gives him the greatest long-term upside. There were also other good depth options at DL, OT, RB and WR. In the short term, Hampton has a clear path to earn playing time early on special teams.

Peters delivers exceptional value in the late fifth round by drafting a player who is a perfect fit to Joe Whitt’s defense, with special teams value and a plausible path to develop as an eventual starter. This pick is a textbook application of the Ninth Directive (Take Chances on Players with Latent Potential and Special Teams Value), which prevails in the later part of Day 3.

Round 7, Pick 222

Javonte Jean-Baptiste, EDGE | Grade: C

Other players available WR Brenden Rice, WR Tahj Washington, TE/Flex Jaheim Bell, WR Cornelius Johnson, CB Kalen King

This is the first puzzling pick in the Commanders’ draft.

Jean-Baptiste profiles as a long, underweight edge rusher with traits to develop, but lacking play strength:

After a five-year run at Ohio State with modest production, Jean-Baptiste’s Notre Dame tape has put him in position to become a developmental Day 3 draft pick. He has good length but lacks play strength to stack and discard tackles. He’ll need to hit the weights to improve his anchor, but he has the footwork and agility to slide off of block sustain and make tackles. He’s a step slow off the snap, dulling his ability to outrace tackles to the edge, but he flashes the hands and hips to become a more impactful rusher if teams rewire his rush plan. There is still a level of upside available for Jean-Baptiste.

The biggest issue with this pick is seeing a path to become a starter in Joe Whitt’s defense. Jean-Baptiste is around 20 pounds lighter than Dan Quinn’s DEs in Dallas last season and more or less the opposite of his preferred profile on the edge. Quinn did have good success transitioning Micah Parson’s into an edge rusher in a smaller package, but they aren’t comparable players. He would appear to fit a role as a situational pass rusher and special teamer.

Lack of starting potential would not ordinarily be a problem at this point in the draft, since Jean-Baptiste does have the ideal profile to become a core special teamer.

However, this is no ordinary final round. There are five players remaining on the board who could conceivably cut a path to roles as starters or major contributors on the Commanders’ offense or defense.

Much as I am reluctant to question the Commanders player ratings, I have no choice but to rule this a violation of the Third Directive for failure to pick the best player available. Fortunately, the infraction was committed with the last pick in the Commanders’ draft, with very little at stake.

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Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Overall Grade for Commanders’ 2024 Draft: B

To arrive at an overall grade for the Commanders’ draft, I computed a weighted average of the grades for the individual draft picks, using the Rich Hill trade chart values as the weighting factor. This gives proportionately greater weight to picks earlier in the draft which are more valuable and consequential.

After converting the letter grades to numeric values (A = 4, B = 3, C = 2) this resulted in an overall grade of 3.26, which equates to a B.

I should note that my grading method is more stringent than the usual inflated grades that people have become used to, where satisfactory performance gets a B and better than average performance gets an A. In my system, a B is a good grade.

For, in four drafts as head of football operations, Ron Rivera made 33 draft picks and only achieved 2 A’s and 7 B’s in post-hoc grading using the same scale. In that time, he failed to add a single blue-chip talent through the draft. I fully expect Peters to exceed that total in his first draft.

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