Draft question of the day: Is QB4 worth the risk?

Yes

Today’s Draft Question of the Day cuts right to the heart of the choice potentially facing the New York Giants in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Bob Donnelly asks: Great work on your three articles evaluating QB draft success rates.

In this year’s draft most project the Giants picking the fourth QB off the board, and many have them moving up to do so at the cost of their second-round pick.

Here’s a look at the results for the last 10 years (in years where at least four were taken in Round 1):

2011

4th No. 10 Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville)
5th No. 12 Christian Ponder (Minnesota)

2012

No. 22 Brandon Weeden (Cleveland)

2018

4th No. 10 Josh Rosen ( Arizona)
5th No. 32 Lamar Jackson (Baltimore)

2020

No. 26 Jordan Love (Green Bay)

2021

4th No. 11 Justin Fields (Chicago)
5th No. 15 Mac Jones

In your view is taking the fourth QB worth the risk/reward? Or should they use the pick(s) to draft other premium positions?

Ed says: Absolutely. It is 100% worth the risk in my view.

Look, NFL offenses are built around the passing game. The teams with great quarterback play year-in and year-out are the teams that have a chance to win big every year. Want to be a top-tier NFL team consistently? You need one of those top-tier quarterbacks. It’s why the Rams traded for Matthew Stafford a few years ago and why the Jets took the Aaron Rodgers plunge. If you don’t have one, you have to be willing to take the swing if/when you believe you have a chance to get a guy who could be — or already is — a top-tier quarterback.

Let’s say, for example, J.J. McCarthy is QB4 this year. I know some analysts (and fans) are all-in on McCarthy and some aren’t. The same, though, can be said about every quarterback in every draft class. Some analysts love Drake Maye. Matt Waldman of The Rookie Scouting Portfolio thinks he is QB6.

It does not matter what you or I think of McCarthy, or whichever quarterback ends up being available to the Giants. It matters what the Giants think. It matters what Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll think. It is their careers that are on the line.

If they LOVE the quarterback available to them, go get the quarterback. It makes no difference if it’s QB2, QB4 or QB8. If they end up being right, no one will care what price was paid or where he was on some draft analyst’s Big Board. Does anyone care what price Ernie Accorsi paid to get Eli Manning?

We can, and will, continue to argue about Daniel Jones. Maybe Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito, too. Realistically, though, what matters is that after five years I think it is apparent it is highly unlikely Jones ever reaches that top shelf of the quarterback pecking order. If the Giants think a quarterback in this class who is available to them can, they should get him.

I refer to the ‘Big Blue View rules for draft success’ often, I know. Daily readers probably get tired of it. Something I have written in there applies, however. I believe the bigger sin for a GM is not missing on a quarterback. That happens. It’s being in love with one and not taking the swing. Here is what I wrote in the ‘rules’:

“More first-round quarterbacks fail than succeed, at least fail in the sense of becoming the big-time franchise quarterback the team drafting them hoped for. That, honestly, has been the case in the NFL for at least the last 20 years or so.

“The shame, honestly, isn’t missing on a quarterback. That’s going to happen. The shame is needing a quarterback, believing a guy could be your quarterback for a decade, passing him up and then watching him be an outstanding player for someone else. That is the unpardonable sin for a GM.

“My advice to Schoen and Daboll: If you’re in love with one of these quarterbacks and have the opportunity to select him, do it. If you’re not, don’t.”

Don’t take a quarterback just to take one. If you love the guy, though, and you think he can take you where you want to go, take the swing. It doesn’t matter what number quarterback he is on the board, or what anyone else thinks.