Don’t expect another good draft from Rams just because of success of 2023 class

Rams need another good draft class in 2024, but that’s far from a guarantee despite four picks in the top-100

The Los Angeles Rams are one week away from tackling arguably the most important draft of the Les Snead and Sean McVay era. Following a season in which they unexpectedly made the postseason, they’ll be looking to build off of that and make one final run in the two-year window that they have with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp.

Last year was the beginning of the re-tooling process and general manager Les Snead knocked it out of the park. After a series of poor drafts, Snead found gems such as Steve Avila, Kobie Turner, Byron Young, and Puka Nacua. Finding those immediate contributors played a crucial role in the Rams’ turnaround season.

Now to build off of that, he’ll need to do it again. With a first round pick for the first time in the McVay-era and four picks in the top-100, the opportunity is there for the taking. However, repeating success in the NFL Draft is much easier said than done. Just because the Rams have four picks in the top-100 doesn’t guarantee the success of those players or that those players will come in and find an immediate role. If the Rams are lucky, half of those players will work out.

In 2019, the Rams held four picks inside the top-100 at 61, 70, 79, and 97. With those picks, the Rams took Taylor Rapp, Darrell Henderson, David Long, and Bobby Evans. Rapp was a solid contributor, but looking back, that class leaves a lot to be desired.

There is a clear difference in that class compared to what the Rams will have next week and that’s a first round pick. Having a pick at 19 compared to 61 makes a big difference. With that said, it’s worth noting that the Rams originally had the 31st overall pick in that draft.

While it came before the McVay era, Snead had four top-100 picks in 2015. The four players selected were Todd Gurley, Rob Havenstein, Jamon Brown, and Sean Mannion. Greg Robinson, Aaron Donald, Lamarcus Joyner, and Tre Mason were all top-100 picks in 2014 and in 2014, the Rams selected Tavon Austin, Alec Ogletree, TJ McDonald, and Stedman Bailey. Again, we’re looking at maybe a 50 percent hit-rate.

The Rams had a good draft last season. However, just because they drafted well last year doesn’t mean it will happen again when they make their selections next week. In fact, it’s very possible that a return to the mean is more likely. At the end of the day, the draft is hard and it’s very random. The issue is very rarely that NFL general managers don’t know how to scout or know what to look for in players. No matter how much scouting is done, sometimes it simply doesn’t matter. There’s always going to be some element of luck involved as well as some error that can’t be avoided. As Sheil Kapadia of The Ringer recently wrote,

“The best organizations operate with the understanding that they are making decisions in an uncertain environment. They take in all the information, make decisions that they feel good about, and try to reassess their process every year.”

This isn’t to say to expect a bad draft from the Rams and Snead. However, just because the Rams found Puka Nacua in the fifth round last year, doesn’t mean there is another Puka Nacua in the fifth round this year. The same can be said about Kobie Turner in the third. Those mid-round diamonds do exist, but finding them in the challenge and that’s where the element of randomness comes into play.

Los Angeles will have 11 draft picks and that means they will have almost 11 dart throws to try and hit a couple bullseyes. They also have the 10th most draft capital to play with and that’s before Snead makes any trades up or down the draft board. Those two elements should increase their chances of a good draft.

While another good draft would be nice, it’s still far from a guarantee. Hitting on this draft would set the Rams up perfectly for one final run with Stafford and Kupp in 2025. Last year was the re-tool and this year is the set-up. They’ll need to maximize their draft picks so that they can once again put some chips in the middle of the table next season. There’s a lot riding on the table heading into this draft and it’s important Snead and co. get it right.