Does the ‘very Buffalo-ish’ approach work?

The Giants are largely following the model Joe Schoen learned with the Bills

Sports Illustrated NFL insider Albert Breer recently told the ‘Rich Eisen Show’ that the New York Giants under the direction of GM Joe Schoen are taking a “very Buffalo-ish” approach to their build.

This is absolutely true, and not a surprise since Schoen and coach Brian Daboll had front row seats to GM Brandon Beane’s build in Buffalo. The approach includes:

• De-valuing positions like running back and safety.
• Spend your resources on premium positions.
• Be quarterback-centric on offense, and do what you have to do to get the guy you want.

No, the Giants have not — yet — swung a Josh Allen-style trade. They did, though, prioritize paying quarterback Daniel Jones over running back Saquon Barkley.

Question is, does it work? Tony DelGenio and I were debating that the other day, and we thought maybe we should float our opinions out into the world. At least the part of the world that cares about the Giants.

So, here is a little point-counterpoint about the ‘Buffalo Model.’

Tony DelGenio: Not really

The current “wisdom” in the NFL is that defense doesn’t win championships anymore. The genesis of that view is the emergence of one of the all-time greats among NFL quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes, six years ago. Mahomes sat for a season and then burst onto the NFL scene with a 50 touchdown first year as starter and a thrilling loss to the other recent all-time great quarterback, Tom Brady, in the AFC Championship game. Since then the Kansas City Chiefs have made it at least that far every year, made the Super Bowl four times, and won it three times. Brady, the previous GOAT, had won the Super Bowl three times in the previous five seasons and lost it once.

The message is clear: Find a great quarterback and build a great offense if you want to have any hope of winning the Super Bowl. The Buffalo Bills, along with several other teams, have attempted to duplicate that model. There is little question that Buffalo (Josh Allen), Baltimore (Lamar Jackson), Cincinnati (Joe Burrow), and the Los Angeles Chargers (Justin Herbert) are among the NFL’s great quarterbacks. Several other teams have given out equally big contracts (Philadelphia, Jalen Hurts; Arizona, Kyler Murray; Cleveland, Deshaun Watson). That group is 0-fer, though, in lifting the trophy, and only Burrow and Hurts have even gotten as far as the Super Bowl, despite all of them making even more money per year than Mahomes does except Allen, who is only a couple million dollars behind him.

The problem is: You can’t out-Mahomes Mahomes. You especially can’t do it since he is coupled with one of the greatest offensive coaching minds ever in Andy Reid. Even without great wide receivers, Mahomes was able to bring it home this season.

The “Buffalo model” has worked to make the Bills a perennial title contender. It hasn’t gotten them to even one Super Bowl, though. They’ve only even gotten as far as the AFC Championship Game once, and that was three years ago. Three times they have been eliminated by…Mahomes. And now the bill has come due on Allen’s big second contract. Buffalo is shedding good players like a black cat sheds fur on a white rug to get under the cap. Even with that, they have had to restructure Allen’s contract – there is now $74M in money that Allen has already been paid that has not yet been accounted for in the Bills’ cap. Leonard Floyd, Poona Ford, Tre’Davious White, Von Miller, Jordan Poyer, Mitch Morse, Gabe Davis – all gone.

If Giants fans would be content with a team that makes the playoffs almost every year but never wins a ring, then I’d say yes, the Buffalo model works. I was a kid when the Giants lost consecutive NFL Championships to the Baltimore Colts in 1958 and 1959, then to the Green Bay Packers in 1961 and 1962, and then to the Chicago Bears in 1963. Let me tell you – it wasn’t fun. Sure, it was better than the 15-year wilderness period that followed, but at some point, you just have to find a way to get the Ring through Mordor and drop it into Mt. Doom.

There’s a lesson to be learned in the few Mahomes-era Super Bowls the Chiefs did not get to or win. In the 2018 season the Patriots won because Bill Belichick devised a Vic Fangio-style two-deep safety defense that confused Jared Goff and the Rams. In 2020, with the Chiefs’ offensive line playing several backups, the Buccaneers’ pass rush pressured Mahomes on 55.4% of dropbacks and held Kansas City to 9 points. In 2021, the Rams prevented Burrow from passing to Ja’Marr Chase for the winning score because Aaron Donald sacked him on fourth down.

In that sense the “Buffalo model” is the right one. Don’t pay safeties and running backs, value premium positions, be quarterback-centric. Where it breaks down is when you don’t get there while the quarterback is on his rookie contract, because there is no way these days to sign a good quarterback to a second contract without overpaying. Many Giants fans were outraged at the second contract Daniel Jones got. In retrospect, though, maybe Buffalo, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and the Chargers did something even worse: Sign a really good QB to a really big contract after wasting his rookie contract years, precluding the possibility of winning it all once the ink is dry. This will sound like heresy, but trading a top-flight quarterback to a bad team in exchange for a high draft pick replacement every five years might be a more sustainable philosophy.

I’m not saying the Giants don’t need to draft a quarterback. Just the opposite – they absolutely do. They need an explosive wide receiver as well, plus an offensive line that gives them a chance to function. I’m just saying that a good enough quarterback on a rookie contract running a creative offense, coupled with a ferocious defense that gets after opposing QBs, might do the trick. It was the Giants’ formula in 1990 and 2007. Maybe it deserves a comeback. Drafting Kayvon Thibodeaux, signing Bobby Okereke, drafting Tae Banks, re-signing Dexter Lawrence, and now trading for Brian Burns are moving them in that direction. The “big” contracts Lawrence and Burns got are chump change next to that of the top NFL QBs and well within what is feasible as the salary cap grows each year.

You could argue that the Giants aren’t close enough yet and so should just take a wide receiver at No. 6 and wait for 2025 to go quarterback. My counter to that would be that 2022 suggested that the Giants are not as bad as they seemed halfway through the 2023 season, and that they have moved several steps in the right direction with their free agency signings already. If they have identified a quarterback they like then it’s not unreasonable to get him this year, especially if next year’s prospects seem less impressive.

There’s no guarantee this strategy can work in today’s NFL – San Francisco sort of had that approach this past year and couldn’t get past Kansas City, though they came close. The odds of winning it all that way, though, may be better than the odds of finding the next Mahomes or out-scoring the current one.

Valentine’s View: Yes, it does

No, the Buffalo Bills have not won a Super Bowl during Brandon Beane’s time as general manager. Yes, the Brandon Beane Buffalo Model works. It absolutely works.

The Bills have been in the playoffs six of the last seven seasons, including five straight. The have won double-digit game in each of those last five seasons, going 61-24 (.706 winning percentage) during the regular season.

I get it. The Bills have not been able to vanquish the Kansas City Chiefs. That’s not about the Buffalo Model. It’s not about how the Bills are built. It’s about Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Andy Reid, Chris Jones and Steve Spagnuolo. OK, well, it’s mostly about Mahomes.

Still, the model didn’t lose to the Chiefs. The model has put them in position year after year to have a chance.

Beane’s model didn’t cost the Bills a game they should won in the divisional round against the Chiefs in 2021. Bad coaching and clock management by head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier let the Chiefs tie a game they should have lost after Buffalo took a lead with :13 left. The Chiefs then won in overtime.

That’s not on the model. Mostly, that’s on McDermott.

Positional value is now accepted doctrine in the NFL. Some positions affect the game down-in and down-out more than others. Those are the ones you spend money and use premium draft assets, on. Running backs impact games, if you choose to let them. Whether you do or not, they have a short life span during which they generally play their best football on their first contract. They can be replaced. So, they don’t generally get big dollars.

Every team in the NFL tries to find a quarterback on a rookie contract they can win with. That’s the Holy Grail because that inexpensive by NFL standards rookie deal allows money to be spent elsewhere, theoretically building a deeper, stronger roster.

Not every rookie quarterback barrels into the league like C.J. Stroud, though, and the ones who do become stars — like Buffalo’s Josh Allen — eventually earn ridiculous mega-contracts.

Yes, the Bills have been shedding players due to salary cap issues this offseason. Maybe that is the model’s fault, but not in a way I can have a problem with. The Bills have been good — really good — for an extended period of time. When you are good and want to stay good you have to pay at least some of your best players. When you have to do that, eventually you have to make financial decisions.

Now I’m back where I started. Yes, the ultimate goal is to win a Super Bowl. It isn’t the model’s fault the Bills haven’t done that. It isn’t the model’s fault they haven’t been able to close the deal. Blame Mahomes. And a badly-coached 13 seconds.