Does the NFL combine matter for NFL success?

Which combine tests correlate with NFL success?

The New York Jets season officially ended on January 7th. Less than two months later the NFL combine has arrived.

There are two schools of thought about the importance of the combine that we hear every year:

1. “It’s the NFL’s underwear Olympics and we already know everything we know about this player. Who cares how they test?”
2. “We can’t be certain about their value until we know how these people test, and the combine matters a lot.”

It is important to remember that while these are the two opinions that are stated the loudest, there is certainly a significant silent majority that has opinions more on the middle ground.

But what is the answer? Does it all matter? Does some of it matter? Does none of it matter?

The answer? Probably the middle one, but there’s still a lot to be gleaned about players outside of the combine.

I wrote on this topic more extensively last season largely through a Relative Athletic Score lens and the results are still pertinent today. Overall, the data suggests that great athletes are more likely to succeed, but there are still plenty of outliers. I’ve pasted some links to last year for those interested in more information on what the data suggest in terms of how much these drills matter by position.

And happy combine week to all who celebrate!

• Article 1: Analyzing Relative Athletic Scores and NFL success – Gang Green Nation. Explains the breakdown of the percentage of NFL players by relative athletic score
• Article 2: Using the short shuttle to predict the success of NFL offensive lineman – Gang Green Nation. Explains a very strong statistical relationship between the short shuttle dill and offensive line success
• Article 3: What is the relationship between Relative Athletic Score and player success? – Gang Green Nation. Explains the relationship between RAS and second contract value, which operates as a proxy for performance at each position