The Dodgers will activate Walker Buehler from the 15-day injured list on Monday, manager Dave Roberts told the L.A. beat after last night’s win over the Diamondbacks (link via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). He’ll take the ball to kick off a series against the Marlins.
It’ll be Buehler’s first major league appearance since June 10, 2022. The two-time All-Star went on the injured list 12 starts into the ’22 season with a flexor strain. After an unsuccessful attempt to rehab, he underwent a Tommy John procedure in August. That was the second such surgery of his career. Buehler also underwent Tommy John shortly after the Dodgers selected him out of Vanderbilt back in 2015.
While there was initially some thought that the right-hander could make a return late in 2023, he and the team decided it was better to play things safe and look ahead to ’24. The Dodgers started Buehler on the IL this season to afford him ample time to build back to peak form. He’d very likely have been on some kind of innings limit anyhow, so it’s understandable the Dodgers didn’t want to push him back onto the MLB roster too quickly.
Buehler began a rehab stint right around Opening Day. That stay in the minors probably lasted a little longer than the organization intended. Buehler was knocked out of his third appearance early when a comeback liner hit him in the throwing hand. That didn’t lead to any kind of serious injury but slightly delayed his pitch count build-up. Buehler walked four hitters in 2 2/3 innings in his fourth outing, so the Dodgers gave him two more Triple-A appearances to continue shaking off the rust.
While his cumulative results on the rehab stint — a 4.15 ERA with 21 strikeouts and nine walks in 21 2/3 frames — were middling, Buehler is coming off his cleanest outing. He tossed five innings of one-run ball for Triple-A Oklahoma City on Tuesday. Buehler punched out five and didn’t issue a walk. He pushed his pitch count to 75, so he should be able to handle something approaching a standard starter’s workload immediately.
Buehler will get a soft landing in his season debut, as he’ll take on a Miami club that ranks 28th in on-base percentage and 29th in slugging. If he’s able to recapture his pre-surgery form, he shouldn’t have any issue taking on more challenging offenses as the season progresses. Buehler was one of the sport’s best pitchers between 2018-21, combining for a 2.82 ERA over 95 outings. He was off to a more pedestrian start to 2022, pitching to a 4.02 ERA through 65 frames with a diminished 21.2% strikeout rate. Buehler’s velocity and swinging strike percentage were in line with their previous levels, though, so he’d likely have turned in his typical top-of-the-rotation results down the stretch if not for the injury.
The Dodgers have gotten solid production out of their rotation thus far. They rank eighth in the majors with a 3.48 earned run average and sit sixth with a 24.1% strikeout rate. It has been a top-heavy group, though. Tyler Glasnow has been excellent. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has rebounded from a nightmare MLB debut to rattle off a 1.64 ERA in the subsequent six starts. The back half of the rotation has been shakier.
James Paxton’s solid 3.51 ERA belies an untenable 22:15 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Gavin Stone has struggled. Bobby Miller landed on the injured list after three starts with shoulder inflammation. Emmet Sheehan, Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May have been on the shelf all year. Landon Knack turned in decent results over three starts since Miller’s injury. The Dodgers optioned him back to OKC yesterday.
The 2024 campaign is a crucial one for Buehler personally. He’ll be a first-time free agent next winter. His health history will likely worry some teams regardless of how he performs over the next five months, but he’s one of the higher-ceiling pitchers in the upcoming class. If he stays healthy from here forward, he could position himself well for a long-term deal heading into his age-30 season.
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